MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Predictions & Odds

The most anticipated event of Major League Baseball’s All-Star festivities, the MLB Home Run Derby has lost some star power over the years. That’s not a bad thing, though, with a new generation of sluggers taking the spotlight. Of the six confirmed participants as of this writing, four are making their Home Run Derby debut. Former winner and hometown favorite Bryce Harper and Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero are the players with past derby experience and they are two of the favorites in MLB Home Run Derby odds.

The competition has evolved over the years with different players and, most of all, different formats. And once again in an effort to streamline and improve the product the MLB Home Run Derby will have a few tweaks. Instead of trying to hit as many home runs during a timed round, players will start each round with a specific number of swings.

Since the 2015 edition there has been a time element involved. That has been removed for the 2026 competition making it a swing-based format. The field will still consist of eight players with a number of swings set for each round. Hitters are given 20 swings in Round 1 and 15 swings in each of the next two rounds. Despite all the changes the desire of the fans has remained the same. All they want to see are majestic big flies into the night sky.

Confirmed Participants & Top Contenders

As of this writing six players have been confirmed as MLB Home Run Derby participants with two slots waiting to be filled. The 2026 lineup of hitters heavily favors younger power hitters over legacy names. Through games of July 8 five of the confirmed players have hit at least 20 home runs this season led by Ben Rice of the New York Yankees.

Rice has the third-most homers in the majors with 28 just ahead of Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero, who has 27 homers. The most recent additions to the lineup are the Cardinals’ Jordan Walker, who has 21 dingers, and Philadelphia’s own Bryce Harper, who has 20 homers.

Two slots remain open and the inclusion of Major League home run leader Kyle Schwarber would make things even more interesting. Harper last competed in the event in 2018 when he narrowly beat Schwarber in the final round. A rematch of that derby as teammates in front of their home fans would create a must-see event.

Official 2026 Field of Players

As of this writing six spots in the MLB Home Run Derby have been confirmed. They are listed below from most home runs to fewest.

• Ben Rice (New York Yankees) – The leading home run hitter among confirmed participants with 28, Rice is competing in the Home Run Derby for the first time.
• Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) – Last year’s Home Run Derby runner-up, Caminero is again terrorizing opposing pitchers with 27 homers. He’s the only one of the five confirmed players to have taken part in the derby.
• Jordan Walker (St. Louis Cardinals) – currently fifth in the NL with 21 homers, Walker is having a breakout season for the Cards. Boasts elite 94.2 mph average exit velocity.
• Willson Contreras (Boston Red Sox) – The Sox leader in most offensive categories, including home runs with 20, Contreras will be competing for the first time despite an ongoing suspension.
• Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies) – The hometown favorite and 2018 champion became the betting favorite to win the MLB Home Run Derby after announcing his inclusion.
• Jac Caglianone (Kansas City Royals) – He has the fewest home runs of anybody in the field, but his average distance on his 14 long balls is tied for MLB’s best.

Key Sluggers & Notable Snubs

• Caminero came close to upsetting Cal Raleigh in last year’s Home Run Derby and is focused on finishing the job. He recently had a stretch of six games with a homer totaling eight in that span. Caminero was sixth in MLB last year with 45 homers.
• The only past winner among the six confirmed participants, Harper has the advantage of playing in his home park in front of his fans. His short, compact swing gives him an edge where mechanics replace stamina.
• Defending Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh has not been actively pushed for the competition, robbing fans of an attempted title defense.
• Not really snubs rather than opt-outs by some of MLB’s elite power hitters, the Derby will be without Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Yordan Alvarez and Mike Trout backed out to preserve their health for the remainder of the season.

Citizens Bank Park Stadium Dimensions & Ballpark Factors

Home to the Philadelphia Phillies, Citizens Bank Park also serves as the Home Run Derby stadium. Historically one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in MLB, Citizens Bank Park ranks fourth overall in ESPN’s 2026 MLB park factors for home runs. The park inflates home run production by about 26 percent compared to an average MLB stadium.

The layout of the playing field makes the perfect setting for the Home Run Derby’s new swing-based format heavily favoring left-handed pull hitters. Harper and Schwarber, both left-handed hitters, have combined for 29 home runs at the yard this season.

Right field has a 330-foot line and a 6-foot wall in right center leading to an increase of home runs by left-handed hitters by roughly 26 percent. Routine fly balls that would be warning track outs in some parks clear the right field wall in Citizens Bank Park.

• Left Field Line: 329-feet, 10.5-foot wall
• Left Center: 374-feet, 14.3-foot wall
• Deep Left Center/Dead Center: 401-feet, 14.3-foot wall
• Right Center: 369-feet, 6-foot wall
• Right Field Line: 330-feet, 13.3-foot wall

How the Philadelphia Venue Impacts Power Hitters

• Ball tracking data shows the park increases left-handed home runs by roughly 26 percent.
• While the park benefits left-handed sluggers, righties benefit from a 19 percent increase in home run production. The main obstacle for right-handed hitters is “The Angle” in left-center where the wall extends to more than 14 feet.
• The humid summer air in Philadelphia serves as a natural booster for baseballs. Statcast data shows that baseballs travel about one foot farther for every 10-degree rise in temperature.

Home Run Derby Format & Rules Explanation

The Home Run Derby format is undergoing another change for the 2026 version. For the first time in years Major League Baseball is completely eliminating the timing format for a strict swing-based system. Under the new format every swing of the bat matters and physical exhaustion is minimized.

The event consists of three rounds with all eight players going against each other in the first round. Every player gets 20 swings to hit as many home runs as possible with the top four home run hitters advancing to the semifinals. A home run on the final swing of any round triggers an extension. Players continue swinging until a non-home run swing.

Round 2 is bracketed with the top four home run hitters from the opening round seeded No. 1 through No. 4 based on their first round total. The swing limit drops to 15 in the final two rounds with the semifinal bracket winners advancing to the final round.

Timing, Bonus Rounds, and Bracket Structure

• The timing element has been completely removed for the 2026 Home Run Derby. Instead, players get 20 swings in the first round and 15 in each of the next two rounds to hit as many homers as possible.
• The semifinalists are determined by the most homers hit in a single-pool opening round. The No. 1 seed (most homers) faces No. 4 and Nos. 2 and 3 go head-to-head in the semis. The swing limit is reduced to 15.
• If a player hits a home run on his final swing of a round he can continue swinging until a non-home run swing is delivered.

Tiebreakers and Scoring Regulations

• If players are tied at the end of Round 1 or during the head-to-head bracket a series of tie-breakers are in place.
• In Round 1 the player who hit the longest home run wins the tie-breaker.
• In the semifinals and finals the player with the most homers from Round 1 advances. If still tied, a 3-swing mini round will determine the winner.

2026 Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

With the Home Run Derby no longer a timed event we’ve seen “endurance” hitters downgraded. Value has shifted more toward players with elite average bat speed who are able to maximize a set number of swings without hurrying their attempts. With the complete field yet to be finalized the betting lines vary across major sportsbooks.

Among the players confirmed to participate, Bryce Harper has the shortest odds with last year’s runner-up Junior Caminero the second favorite. There is speculation that if healthy Kyle Schwarber will take part. If he’s cleared the MLB home run leader will immediately shoot to the top of the Home Run Derby odds.

Current Betting Field & Favorites to Win

A former Home Run Derby winner who is performing in his own yard in front of rabid fans puts Harper at the top of the odds board. Odds for Schwarber are floating around which would be the shortest, but as of this writing he hasn’t been confirmed for the event.

• Bryce Harper +320
• Junior Caminero +350
• Ben Rice +600
• Jordan Walker +700
• Jac Caglianone +900
• Willson Contreras +1000

Expert Predictions: Best Bet & Dark Horse Value

• All signs point to Schwarber being a late addition to the lineup which would make him the favorite. More than half of his 32 homers this season have come at Citizens Bank Park and he’s the perfect left-handed hitting slugger for the field’s layout.
• Last year’s runner-up, Junior Caminero has the fastest average bat speed in MLB, a high-valued metric in the new format.
• Having the lowest home run total of announced participants entering the event will suppress the Home Run Derby odds for Jac Caglianone. However, his maximum distance metrics are off the charts and the contact issues that have plagued him are neutralized.
• After mediocre seasons Jordan Walker changed his hitting style leading to a breakout campaign. His underlying metrics are among the best in baseball and the new format is a benefit for players with a lanky build.

How to Watch the Home Run Derby Live

Not only do Major League Baseball fans get a change in the Home Run Derby format this year there is also a new way to watch the Home Run Derby. For the first time traditional television networks like ESPN will not broadcast the event instead leaving Netflix as the exclusive viewing option.

Coverage of the event starts on Monday, July 13 with a one hour pre-show at 7 p.m. ET with the first pitch of the 2026 Home Run Derby taking place at approximately 8 p.m. ET. Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA is this year’s host venue.

Full access to the 2026 Home Run Derby comes at no extra cost for any active, standard Netflix subscription plan. Fans can watch through the Netflix app on any smart TV, gaming console, mobile phone, tablet or web browser.

TV Broadcast & Streaming Platforms

• Fans can watch the 2026 Home Run Derby exclusively by streaming it on Netflix.
• Open the Netflix app on any supported device and search for “Home Run Derby” to view the event live.
• For the first time ever traditional television networks will not carry the live broadcast.

History of Past Home Run Derby Champions

The Home Run Derby has been a part of MLB All-Star Game festivities since 1985 producing a different winner nearly every year. Only four players have won the event more than once with Ken Griffey Jr. leading the way with three titles. Prince Fielder, Yoenis Cespedes and Pete Alonso each won the competition twice.

In 2019 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set the record for most home runs in a single tournament with 91 and held the record for most homers in a single round with 40 until Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez topped that mark with 41 in 2023.

Playing in five straight derby’s between 2019 and 2024 (the 2020 version was canceled) Pete Alonso amassed the most career derby home runs with 207 and he is the last player to win back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2021.

Recent Home Run Derby Champions