Dollar Tree 301 Predictions: Odds, Favorites & Best Bets

The penultimate race on the regular season schedule has the NASCAR Cup Series in New Hampshire for the Dollar Tree 301. With only two races remaining before The Chase starts, postseason slots are filling up with seven drivers already locked in. Several other big-name drivers can secure a spot with a decent finish at the “Magic Mile.”

Defending champion Ryan Blaney opened as the NASCAR betting favorite with Christopher Bell second on the odds board and last week’s Cook Out 400 winner Joey Logano next. Race predictions can go several different ways with six drivers packed at the top of the board with shorter than 10/1 odds. 

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Dollar Tree 301 Preview: Schedule, Track & Key Details

For drivers sitting outside the top 16 in the NASCAR Cup Series points race, they are running out of time to qualify for The Chase. Shane van Gisbergen currently holds down the 16th spot with four drivers within 81 points of his position. Cup Series races have been held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway since 1993. The track was given the “Magic Mile” nickname due to its layout.

The course measures 1.058 miles and was given the catchy name shortly after opening. Race favorite Ryan Blaney is one of five drivers along with Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano to have previously won.

Date, Time and Location

• The Dollar Tree 301 is set to take place on Sunday, August 23, 2026.
• Scheduled start time for the race is 3 p.m. ET with television coverage on USA Network.
• New Hampshire Motor Speedway has hosted NASCAR events since 1993 and was given the “Magic Mile” nickname since it sits right around the one-mile mark. Drivers will navigate the track over 301 laps (318.46 miles). 

Track Characteristics and Racing Conditions

• New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a flat, technically punishing oval that is more like a giant short track than a typical intermediate speedway.
• Success on the course requires precise braking, high mechanical grip and masterful throttle control.
• The abrasive surface coupled with severe braking zones will degrade front tires quickly making tire management a crucial are of concern.

Why This Race Matters

• As the next to last race of the Cup Series regular season, the Dollar Tree 301 is a final chance for drivers on the playoff bubble to secure a spot in the top 16 playoff field.
• The race also represents a chance for drivers locked into the top 16 to improve their seeding and point totals for the top 16.
• Drivers inside the top 16 who have yet to clinch a spot have no room for error with a bad run impacting their chances of making the postseason.

Drivers and Teams to Watch Before the Race

Entering the Dollar Tree 301 all eyes will be focused on the scramble around the 16-driver postseason cut line. With only one regular season race remaining after this one, the revised playoff format has increased the pressure on middle-of-the-pack teams. Shane van Gisbergen currently holds the 16th spot leading Ryan Preece by 50 points.

There is a race to be run with a congested top of the odds board suggesting a struggle to the finish. Race favorite Ryan Blaney is the defending champ, but Joey Logano is making a late charge and has two career victories at New Hampshire.

Leading Championship Contenders

• A two-time winner at New Hampshire, Joey Logano has turned his season around climbing from 20th to ninth in the points standings with two wins and a podium in his last four starts.
• Defending champion Ryan Blaney boasts the shortest NASCAR betting odds and is currently second in the points race. 
• Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner at New Hampshire and holds a significant lead in the Cup Series standings. He has a chance this week to secure the top playoff seed.

Drivers With Strong Recent Form

• Due to his recent streak Logano gets a mention in this section since he’s the hottest driver in the Cup Series. Logano had a dramatic short track win at Richmond for his second win in four starts moving into the top 10 in the season standings.
• It’s been a few weeks since he’s won, but Hamlin has been one of the hottest drivers with four straight top 5s and five in his last six starts.
• Chase Briscoe led for a race-high 171 laps at Richmond last week before finishing second. It was the fifth time in his last seven starts he placed among the top 4.

Potential Dark Horse Performers

• A New England native with hundreds of laps turned at New Hampshire, Ryan Preece needs a strong showing to make up ground from his spot at No. 17 in the standings. His RFK Racing team excels at short tracks making Preece the ultimate motorsports prediction sleeper.
• Carson Hocevar has been a revelation on flat, heavy-braking ovals in his young career and sitting 11th in the standings will allow him to be overly aggressive.
• Austin Cindric secured third at Richmond, his best finish of the season, signaling the elite short track speed of Team Penske.

Understanding the Race Odds and Betting Markets

The most straightforward NASCAR betting market is backing the outright winner on the moneyline. Odds are displayed in number form and in this market we almost always see drivers with a plus (+) sign indicating the exact profit on a baseline $100 bet. Other markets will have negative (-) odds favorites meaning that number must be wagered to make a $100 profit. 

Understanding motorsports betting odds can directly influence a wager since the numbers vary from race to race based on the type of course and driver history. Knowing how to read the odds and spot discrepancies is essential for finding value in motorsports betting.

Outright Winner Odds

• Ryan Blaney +379
• Christopher Bell +455
• Joey Logano +500
• Denny Hamlin +600
• Kyle Larson +682
• Chase Briscoe +796
• Josh Berry +1014
• Tyler Reddick +1135
• William Byron +1161
• TY Gibbs +1236

Head-to-Head and Other Popular Markets

• Matchups have potentially the best long-term return because they eliminate the volatility of predicting a single winner in a crowded field.
• Podiums and top finishes provide a safety net when backing an underdog or dark horse. You can wager on a driver to finish within a specific tier like top 3, top 5 or top 10. 
• Manufacturer bets allow you to wager on which vehicle brand will win the race. It’s a safer alternative to picking an outright winner with respectable payouts.

How Track Conditions Can Influence Odds

• Track conditions play a significant role in how fast cars drive, tire wear, and handling, forcing betting line shifts before and during a race weekend.
• Severe weather shifts between qualifying rounds and race day can have a significant effect on betting odds with certain drivers better suited for specific conditions.

Best Race Betting Picks and Value Opportunities

Ryan Blaney (+379), Christopher Bell (+455), Joey Logano (+500) and Denny Hamlin (+600) offer the highest probability of winning the Dollar Tree 301 as the top race betting picks. However, the most actionable value opportunities are in head-to-head driver matchups and top finishing bets targeting flat-track specialists.

Top Driver Pick to Win

• The top four favorites on the NASCAR betting odds (Blaney, Bell, Logano and Hamlin) all have stellar reputations at New Hampshire and can win the Dollar Tree 301.
• The race winner predictions however take us to the Joey Logano bandwagon for a victory at the Dollar Tree 301.
• It’s a perfect storm for Logano with superior recent form, historical data at New Hampshire and situational motivation all converging.

Value Pick Outside the Favorites

• Anchoring the second tier of Dollar Tree 301 favorites, Josh Berry offers tremendous value at his price. 
• Berry has a strong record on short, flat track and is highly backed by advanced predictive data.
• In this race last year Berry started deep in the field but sliced through traffic pushing Ryan Blaney to the limit before finishing as runner-up.

Betting Markets Worth Considering

• Driver matchups and top placement props are betting markets worth exploring at the Dollar Tree 301 with a safer return than the volatile outright winner market.
• Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin have some of the best active average finishes at New Hampshire making them a strong safety net when shifting your wager from the outright market. 
• Live betting can be lucrative on a track that destroys tires. If a favorite falls off the pack before pit crew adjustments are made, they can be had a premium price in later stages.

Race Winner Prediction and Final Picks

The favorite doesn’t always win and backing the heater Logano is currently on makes a lot of sense. His short track experience and current form that saw him surge into the Cup Series standing top 10 puts him as our race winner prediction to win the Dollar Tree 301.

Predicted Race Winner

• Joey Logano

Driver Who Could Surprise

• Carson Hocevar has shown dynamic speed on shorter ovals this season.
• Not fazed by the veteran drivers he competes against, Hocevar is a race betting prediction dark horse candidate. He’s also looking to rebound after a disappointing end to last week’s race when engine failure led to a DNF.