The final 2026 World Cup host to take the pitch will be the United States. Although the Americans are in Group D, they will take part in the fourth match of the World Cup before waiting a week for their second match. If the United States are able to make it out of the Group Stage and into the knockout rounds, they will see their World Cup odds move considerably as they are likely to have home field advantage for their remaining matches. This famously benefited South Korea in 2002 and Russia in 2018 as both teams wildly outperformed expectations with the home crowd at their backs.
Odds to win Group D
United States +140
Turkey +190
Paraguay +400
Australia +800
Group D is one of the most evenly matched World Cup groups. There is no overwhelming favorite or distant longshot in this group according to either the soccer futures odds or the FIFA World Rankings. The United States is ranked 16th, Turkey is ranked 22nd, Australia is ranked 27th, and Paraguay is ranked 40th.
Serendipitously, the United States has faced all three of these teams on home soil within the last year. The Yanks struck quickly against Turkey last June in Hartford with a Jack McGlynn goal in the first minute. However, Arda Guler and Kerem Akturkoglu netted in quick succession for the visitors in the middle of the first half to give Turkey a 2-1 victory.
The Americans defeated Australia 2-1 in mid-October and squeaked past Paraguay by the same scoreline in mid-November. Haji Wright netted a brace for the USMNT in the first match, while Folarin Balogun was the hero against Paraguay with a goal late in the second half to win it.
Odds to win World Cup for Group D Teams
United States +7005
Turkey +11007
Paraguay +20014
Australia +65047
The only team in Group D that has made a deep run in the World Cup somewhat recently is also the team with the fewest World Cup appearances in the group by a considerable margin. This will be Turkey’s third World Cup appearance, and they sent shockwaves throughout the world in 2002. Turkey squeaked into the knockout rounds and then knocked off Japan 1-0 in the Round of 16 and defeated Senegal 1-0 in the quarterfinals before falling 1-0 to Brazil in the semifinals.
Match Schedule
United States vs. Paraguay, June 12, 2026, at 6 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (Match 4)
Australia vs. Turkey, June 13, 2026, at 9 p.m. ET from BC Place in Vancouver, Canada (Match 6)
Turkey vs. Paraguay, June 19, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (Match 31)
United States vs. Australia, June 19, 2026, at 12 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington (Match 32)
Turkey vs. United States, June 25, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (Match 59)
Paraguay vs. Australia, June 25, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (Match 60)
Team Previews
United States
This will be the 12th World Cup appearance for the United States. They secured their best finish ever at the inaugural World Cup in 1930 (third place), yet they have only made it past the Round of 16 one time since that point.
Former Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino has called up a healthy number of players since taking over as the head coach of the United States in September 2024. A whopping 69 players have been picked for the national team over the last year, so there are still some major questions about the final composition of this team.
There is no doubt that Christian Pulisic will be the star of the squad. Pulisic is the most talented player in United States history and already has 32 goals in 84 appearances for the national team. He is just 27 years old and has already featured for Borussia Dortmund, Chelsea, and his current club AC Milan.
Midfielders Giovanni Reyna and Weston McKennie are going to be the playmakers in the middle of the pitch for the Americans. Reyna is once again a featured player for the United States after his falling out with former head coach Gregg Berhalter at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, while McKennie can be deployed in a variety of ways.
Crystal Palace’s Chris Richards is the only guaranteed starter in defense. Richards is in the prime of his career and has shown plenty of class while playing for club and country. Skipper Tim Ream currently has the captain’s armband, but he is 38 and is back in the MLS after spending a decade with Fulham. Mark McKenzie has yet to feature for the Americans in a major international competition, but he is probably one of the better options.
Perhaps the biggest concern might be in goal though. Everyone in contention to start in net for the United States plays professionally in the MLS, and the three most capped players for the national team are Matt Turner, Matt Freese, and Zack Steffen.
Turkey
The Crescent Stars will be making just their third appearance at the World Cup. Turkey looked sharp in qualifying, securing a draw against Spain on Spanish soil, and they qualified for this tournament after defeating Romania and Kosovo by a 1-0 scoreline in the playoffs.
Captain Hakan Calhanoglu will be the player to watch for Turkey. He is the most capped active player with 104 national team appearances, and the No. 10 has netted 22 goals for the national team. Calhanoglu has been a consistent fixture for both major Milan clubs over the last decade. Kaan Ayhan and Orkun Kokcu are likely to see significant playing time too.
Kerem Akturkoglu is the most reliable threat at the top of the formation, but a pair of 21-year-olds have the potential to emerge in a big way. Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’s Kenan Yildiz have both impressed enough at their clubs to be consistent starters, so don’t be surprised if one of these forwards turns a lot of heads.
As with the United States, there are some real concerns in Turkey’s back line. Spain highlighted this with a 6-0 thrashing of Turkey in Konya back in September, as most of the likely starters play for domestic clubs. Zeki Celik and Merih Demiral are the most experienced players, but Caglar Soyuncu was notably left off the roster.
Fenerbahce’s Mert Gunok is the probable starter in net for Turkey.
Paraguay
Older football fans will remember Paraguay for their sensational defending at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Paraguay allowed just one goal in the Group Stage, leading to Los Guaranies winning the group ahead of defending champions Italy and making it to the quarterfinals before falling to eventual champions Spain.
This is Paraguay’s first appearance at the World Cup since that run, and there isn’t a lot of talent on this team to be quite honest. MLS and English fans will know about what Miguel Almiron can do in the midfield, and Diego Gomez is a potential star. However, the only other Paraguayan midfielder with more than 20 caps is Ramon Sosa.
Paraguay will likely be solid in the back though. Captain Gustavo Gomez, Junior Alonso, and Fabian Balbuena are all experienced and familiar with one another during their time playing professionally in Brazil. Sunderland’s Omar Alderete could also earn a spot in the Starting XI, but the goalkeeping quality is a big unknown.
There is almost no firepower up top for Paraguay. No one that has been called up for national duty in the last year has netted 10 goals internationally, and it’s unlikely we see Paraguay press forward given the lack of talent here.
Australia
The Socceroos have qualified for six straight World Cups, but they have yet to make it past the Round of 16. Many experts see Australia as a relatively weak team this time around and that’s why the Aussies have the longest odds to win Group D.
Captain Matthew Ryan is a very experienced goalkeeper, and this is likely the only position where Australia have an advantage over other teams in this group. Ryan has over 100 caps for Australia, and he has played at a high level for a long time.
However, there isn’t much else to write home about for Australia. Jordan Bos is a solid defender that has proven he can go up and down the pitch to score goals, and he has played well at Feyenoord. Midfielder Riley McGree has been a quality holding midfielder during his time at Middlesbrough, yet it’s very concerning how few goals have come from Australia’s midfield over the last several years outside of Jackson Irvine.
That puts a lot of pressure on players up top to generate enough offense for Australia. Martin Boyle and Awer Mabil both have 10 goals for the Socceroos, but both players are on the wrong side of 30. Australia seriously misses a player like Tim Cahill that could make something happen on his own without much help from the midfielders.
