FedExCup Playoff Opener: St. Jude Odds & Preview

The first leg of the FedExCup playoffs takes place this week with the top 70 players in the season-long standings earning a spot in the field for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Like in any sport the stakes are higher in the playoffs with the top 50 in the standings following this tournament advancing. While some players will attempt to climb up the standings one that doesn’t have to worry is Scottie Scheffler.

The No. 1 ranked player in the world and the overall FedExCup standings leader, Scheffler enters as the PGA odds favorite. Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are next on the odds board.

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Why the FedEx St. Jude Championship Matters in the FedExCup Playoffs

For those sitting outside the top 50 in the standings, and for those loitering just inside the 50th spot, the FedEx St. Jude Championship is kinda a big deal. The FedExCup Playoffs opener will determine which 50 players advance to the next step in the three-step playoff process. This tournament kicks off the high-stakes elimination process with golfers that finish outside the top losing their chance at the million dollar championship.

Starting the Road Toward the FedExCup Title

• The road to the FedExCup title starts in Memphis at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, where the regular season grind shifts into a high-stakes, three-week elimination format.
• The top 70 golfers in the regular season FedExCup point standings advance to the first leg of the playoffs with the top 50 after the FedEx St. Jude Championship moving on to the BMW Championship.
• FedExCup standings points are quadrupled in the playoffs compared to regular season events which can cause seismic shifts in the standings with a single high finish.

How Early Playoff Results Can Change the Standings

• Early FedExCup Playoff results can completely reshape the standings since playoff tournaments award significantly more points than regular season events.
• 750 points are awarded to the winner of the FedEx St. Jude Championship allowing players to make a huge leap up the leaderboard in a single week.
• Standard full-field regular season PGA Tour events award 500 points to the winner

FedEx St. Jude Championship Schedule, Field & Tournament Format

In most ways the FedEx St. Jude Championship format is similar to a regular PGA Tour event. This week’s playoff opener spans four days starting on Thursday, August 13 through Sunday, August 16. Golfers will play 18 holes each day for a total of 72 holes of stroke play with no cut line. The FedEx St. Jude Championship field consists of the top 70 players on the PGA Tour FedExCup points list following the regular season, which concluded earlier this month at the Wyndham Championship.

Tournament Date and Location

• The FedEx St. Jude Championship will take place over four days with the opening round scheduled for Thursday, August 13. The fourth and final round will be played on Sunday, August 16.
• TPC Southwind, located just outside Memphis in the state of Tennessee, will host the FedEx St. Jude Classic for a fifth consecutive year. The property has hosted PGA events since 1989.
• At just under 7,300 yards and par 70, the course is demanding with water prevalent on a number of holes, strategically placed bunkers and long, narrow fairways.

Players Competing in the First Playoff Event

• While the FedEx St. Jude Championship field is open to the top 70 players in the season-long points race, only 69 players will peg it up at TPC Southwind.
• Daniel Berger, who is ranked No. 60 in the standings withdrew due to injury. There is no alternate list for the playoffs. That means Berger is eliminated from the playoffs.
• The remainder of the field is headlined by regular season points leader and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.
• With his win at the Wyndham Championship, Michael Brennan vaulted into the top 70 and will be competing this week.

How the FedExCup Playoff Format Works

• The FedExCup playoffs are a three-week progressive elimination tournament where the PGA Tour’s top players compete to be FedExCup champion.
• The top 50 players in the FedExCup standings after the FedEx St. Jude Championship advance to next week’s BMW Championship. From there, the top 30 point-getters move to the Tour Championship.
• The winner of the Tour Championship claims the bounty that comes with being the top golfer. Tommy Fleetwood is the reigning Tour Champion after his victory at East Lake Golf Club last year.

Players to Watch at the FedEx St. Jude Championship

After last week’s performance I think Michael Brennan must feel like he’s playing with house money. And a golfer with nothing to lose is someone worth keeping an eye on. Brennan was the only golfer to jump inside the top 70 and he qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs for the first time by moving from No. 105 to No. 47 with his 3-shot win at the Wyndham Championship. The field this week will be a bit more competitive since most players well inside the cutoff took last week off.

He’s No. 1 in the standings and in the world rankings, but you have to think Scottie Scheffler will be motivated as the FedEx St. Jude Championship favorite. He has only one win this season and that came in January. He does have five runner-up showings among his 10 top 5, so it’s not like he’s having an off year. Max Homa and Jordan Spieth need good showings to move into the top 30 and advance. Desperation can make or break a player so we’ll see which one can make a move.

Top Golfers Entering the Playoff Opener

• Most of the top players took time off ahead of the playoff opener to recharge their batteries. He didn’t win a bunch of tournaments, but Scottie Scheffler is the top golfer and FedEx St. Jude Championship favorite.
• With a star-studded field everybody could be considered FedEx St. Jude Championship contenders. Matt Fitzpatrick is the closest challenger to Scheffler in the standings with Cameron Young at No. 3.
• Sam Burns is a top threat according to experts due to ranking third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting.

Players With Momentum Before the Tournament

• We turn back to Sam Burns in this category with four straight top 20s that including a podium at The Open. Burns had a top 5 on the TPC Southwind layout in 2024.
• No player has more momentum than Michael Brennan right now. A win at last week’s Wyndham Championship moved him from 105th to 47th earning his first playoff appearance.
• A former winner at TPC Southwind, Hideki Matsuyama arrives having finished among the top 14 in his last five starts. Over the last three starts his Sunday scoring average is 66.

Potential Breakout Performers

• Given his strong iron play, Tom Kim has been identified as a top sleeper pick. His game fits the tight TPC Southwind layout.
• J.J. Spaun has some unfinished business. He emerged as a FedEx St. Jude Championship contender after losing in a playoff last year. His ball-striking numbers are trending upward and he’s comfortable attacking pins on this layout.
• The tight TPC Southwind layout demands precision off the tee and nobody on Tour is more accurate than Aaron Rai. Now, if the rest of his game can catch up Rai sits as a threat.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds & Betting Preview

He has only one win this season but Scottie Scheffler has been the PGA betting favorite in just about every tournament he started. And once again he’s the favorite in the FedEx St. Jude Championship odds. The field is half of what a full-field regular season tournament has, but the 69 players competing this week were the best all season making things even more difficult for Scheffler to win for the first time since January.

Early Favorites and Top Betting Options

• Scheffler is a considerable favorite having finished at the top of the FedExCup Playoff rankings with 11 top 5s. Among those are a win and five runners-up.
• Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are next on the odds list and the only other players with shorter than 20/1 odds in the outright market.
• Players like Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa have value based on season stats that translate to the compact TPC Southwind layout.
• Given his recent form and a past win on the course, Hideki Matsuyama is a strong value play.

How Player Form Can Influence Betting Markets

• Player form is crucial in driving betting markets, dictating odds movement, and implied probability in golf betting.
• Sportsbooks use recent finishes, momentum, and underlying statistics over the last 12 to 36 rounds to price outright winners, top finish levels and head-to-head matchups. A hot streak shortens a player’s odds while a slump pushes the odds higher.
• Casual bettors tend to overreact to a high-profile player's win or high finish forcing books to shorten that golfer’s odds past true statistical value.

Key Betting Markets to Follow

• FedEx St. Jude Championship odds are shaped by its unique format. The top 70 players on Tour in a no-cut event forces traditional betting strategies to shift.
• With a smaller, elite field, odds for the outright favorites are shorter moving value down the board or to other markets.
• With no cut line in this tournament, placement markets become highly actionable. Players that start slowly have time to recover since they will play 72 holes.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks & Predictions

Players on the cusp have more to play for than those higher in the standings. Some golfers can handle the pressure better than others making them targets for strong finishes. It’s hard not to back the favorites since they’ve been the best players all season, but Scheffler is priced out of the outright market. Every other golfer is in play and while he hasn’t disappeared Collin Morikawa is looking to make his mark. Ailments and family obligations behind him, Morikawa is heating up and is one of our FedEx St. Jude Championship picks.

Predicted Tournament Winner

• It’s hard to imagine the No. 1 ranked player in the world playing with a chip on his shoulder. That is what Scheffler is doing as he seeks his first title since The American Express in January.
• A past winner on the TPC Southwind course and riding fantastic form into this tournament, Hideki Matsuyama is our FedEx St. Jude Championship prediction to win.
• Rickie Fowler is a high-upside aggressive player with superb ball-striking numbers at TPC Southwind. He’s also in good form and slotted for a top 10 finish.

Best Value Pick Outside the Favorites

• Sam Burns is the consensus best value pick outside the top favorites at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
• He’s performed well in stat categories that translate at TPC Southwind sitting inside the top 15 on Tour in strokes gained: total and third in strokes gained: putting.
• Burns also has a strong record at TPC Southwind that includes a playoff loss in 2021 and a top 5 in 2024.

Player Props Worth Considering

• Without a cut player props become more predictable based on a golfer's long-term consistency. TPC Southwind has small greens and plenty of hazards making precision iron play and driving accuracy among the critical stats to back.
• Backing Tommy Fleetwood in a tournament matchup is a bet worth taking. The reigning FedExCup champion has six straight top 15s and a stellar record at TPC Southwind.
• The payout isn’t as lucrative but backing Scheffler to finish among the top 5 is a safe bet. He’s finished among the top 5 in 17 of his last 23 starts, including a T3 here last year.

Final Thoughts on the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Success at the FedEx St. Jude Championship is based on capitalizing on the unique setting of an elite field of golfers in a no-cut tournament at a penal venue. TPC Southwind isn’t long, but narrow fairways, small landing areas and numerous in-play hazards will cause problems. Scottie Scheffler has deservedly taken his spot at the top of the odds board, but his outright price suggests looking elsewhere for betting value. And it can be had a little further down in players like Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick and Collin Morikawa.

Biggest Storylines Before the First Round

• Jackson Koivun is a name that not many golf enthusiasts are familiar with. But he did match something done only by Tiger Woods previously. Koivun got into the playoffs at No. 70 in the FedExCup standings tying Woods’ record for fewest starts needed to qualify with five.
• Though the top 70 players qualified for the FedEx St. Jude Championship only 69 will tee off on Thursday with Daniel Berger withdrawing due to injury. This also guarantees that Berger will not advance in the playoffs.
• Some big name players like Max Homa, Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im are currently outside the top 50 and face elimination from the playoffs if they don’t produce a strong week. Finishing among the top 50 gets golfers to next week’s BMW Championship and all Signature Events next year.

Players and Betting Angles to Monitor

• Sam Burns is the premier mid-tier target across sharp networks and by advanced metrics. Golf experts have labeled Burns as a top 3 overall contender making him a player to monitor.
• We’re backing Hideki Matsuyama in the outright market so he’s definitely a player worth monitoring. On top of all his other accomplishments, Matsuyama historically peaks during playoff time.
• Because there is no 36-hole cut to shrink the field, players have enough time to recover from a bad round. You can get slow starters at a premium price following adding value to their portfolio.