NFL Week 9 Predictions: Matchups & Betting Preview

Week 9 of the NFL football season opens on Thursday, November 5 and features 15 games loaded with primetime showdowns, divisional matchups, another International Series game, and major injury implications. The Minnesota Vikings were the last team to lose a game and their tenuous lead in the NFC North is on the line in a marquee interconference matchup with AFC East leading Buffalo on Monday night. Red-hot Joe Burrow leads Cincinnati against Atlanta in a NFL matchup in Madrid. The loss of Lamar Jackson took a toll on the Baltimore Ravens NFL odds leaving them as a 10.5-point underdog in their Thursday night game with Jacksonville.

NFL Games This Week

Playing on a short week is tough enough, but doing it without your top two QBs makes it more of a challenge. Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley last week and head into their Thursday night game with the Jaguars as one of three double-digit underdogs on the early NFL lines. The NFL matchups between Denver and Carolina, and Buffalo and Minnesota feature division leaders.

Top NFL Matchups to Watch

The NFL’s International Series is back with a key interconference game in Spain between Cincinnati and Atlanta. Both teams are in the thick of their division race and victories are important in tight playoff races. One game off the lead in the AFC North, the Bengals have shown off their explosive offense scoring more than 30 points in each game of a 3-game winning streak. Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and 5 TDs in last week’s win over Tennessee and has 13 TD passes during the streak. The Falcons are one of three teams with three wins in the NFC South, but they’ve lost one more game than Carolina.

Despite losing six in a row, the Philadelphia Eagles are only a win over the NFC East leading Giants away from getting back in the hunt. Philly is searching for consistent quarterback play since losing Jalen Hurts to injury. Tanner McKee has done little to spark a stagnant offense that ranks last in the NFL in yards per game. Coming off their bye the Giants (4-2-1) are the only team in the division with a winning record. 

With four straight wins the Denver Broncos took over sole possession of first place in the AFC West beating Kansas City last week. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are the best of the worst in the NFC South. At 3-4 the Panthers lead the division and look to rebound from two straight losses that produced a total of 32 points. The game opened with a relatively low NFL odds total of 43.5 points.

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Thursday Night Football This Week

The AFC matchup between Jacksonville and Baltimore gets Week 9 started on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens are in scramble mode after losing QBs Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley to injury last week. The club is turning to third-stringer Joe Fagnano to keep them afloat. Kickoff from MT Bank Stadium is 8:15 p.m. ET with the game streamed on Prime Video.

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

• The Ravens suffered a serious blow when 2-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson injured his thumb last week and is likely done for the year. Backup Tyler Huntley has been ruled and the club named rookie Joe Fagnano as Thursday’s starter. 
• To take pressure off Fagnano the Ravens will use Derrick Henry and the ground game. That plays into Jacksonville’s strength since the Jags boast the best run defense in the NFL allowing 77.4 yards per game.
• Among QBs with more than 100 pass attempts, Trevor Lawrence has the highest passer rating in the NFL and the Jags are fifth in the league averaging 28 points per game. Baltimore’s usual stout defense allows more than 25 points per game and is ranked 21st in the NFL against the pass.

Thursday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets

• With undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano set to make his first career NFL start, the Ravens are serious underdogs. The opening NFL betting line had them at +10.5. Fagnano saw action last week completing 10 of 21 for 91 yards with a pick. He was also sacked three times.
• Baltimore has been scuffling, scoring a total of 33 points over the last three games. And the Ravens haven’t been to backers at the betting window going 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games. 
• Teams have stepped up when faced with dire situations and the Ravens have an experienced roster ready to support their rookie QB. The Jags can establish themselves as a dominant team in the AFC and will win the game, but fail to cover in a closer-than-expected 26-20 decision.

Sunday Night Football This Week

The Chicago Bears look to avoid falling into a trap as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Week 9 edition of Sunday Night Football. The game is scheduled to kick off 8:20 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago and will air on NBC. The Bears have won three straight with the last two over last season’s Super Bowl participants Seattle and New England.

Sunday Night Football Matchup Preview

• The Bears are coming off a dominant road win over Super Bowl champion Seattle where they decimated the No. 1 ranked defense for 363 yards in a 34-17 win. The addition of Jeffery Simmons also helped inspire a strong defensive showing. 
• The return of Baker Mayfield has helped the Bucs win two straight. Mayfield wasn’t needed in a 16-0 win over Atlanta on Sunday as Tampa rushed for 324 yards with Bucky Irving (170) and Kenneth Gainwell (140) doing the bulk of the work. Mayfield failed to complete a pass going 0 for 3.
• After beating last season’s Super Bowl participants in back-to-back games, the Bears look like a serious contender. However, facing the 3-5 Bucs after those impressive wins leaves Chicago in a vulnerable spot.

Sunday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets

• What’s keeping the Bears grounded is playing in the toughest division in football. With all four teams multiple games over .500, a loss, especially to a team you’re favored at home to beat by 6 points, could be devastating.
• The Bears were good on defense before acquiring Simmons and last week they held Seattle to 81 rushing yards and 252 total yards. The Bears boast the best third-down defense in the NFL and allowed only one third-down conversion in 11 Seattle attempts.
• Since Caleb Williams returned to the lineup the Bears have been on fire winning all three games by scoring at least 30 points in each one. They have a balanced attack ranked 2nd in rushing, 3rd in total offense and 8th in scoring. Look for the Bears to cover the 6-point NFL odds spread in a 31-14 victory.

Monday Night Football This Week

The top teams in each conference square off in a marquee Monday Night Football contest when the Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings on ESPN and ABC. Kickoff for the game is 8:15 p.m. ET from US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The teams enter the contest at 6-1 after the Vikings lost for the first time on Sunday, 19-15, at Detroit. 

Monday Night Football Matchup Preview

• The outcome of MNF tonight hinges on what team plays to its strength better. The Vikings have ruled with an iron fist defense holding opponents to a NFL low 13.3 points per game. Even in their setback the defense did its job against the explosive Lions allowing just 19 points.
• With a heavy blitzing scheme the Vikings disrupt opposing quarterbacks with pressure. They have the second-most sacks in the NFL and boast the No. 1 passing defense and No. 2 total defense. Andrew van Ginkel (6.5) and Dallas Turner (6.0) are the only teammates among the top 7 in sacks.
• Led by former MVP Josh Allen, the Bills lead the NFL in scoring and average more than 393 yards per game. Allen is second in the NFL in rushing TDs and also has thrown for nearly 1,800 yards with 11 more scores. 

Monday Night Football Predictions & Best Bets

• With Buffalo’s offense and Minnesota’s defense potentially zero-factoring each other, what happens when Minnesota has the football will play an important role. 
• Minnesota has been held to fewer than 20 points in four of its previous six games and until last week the lack of offense didn’t hurt them. The Vikings ranks 29th in total offense and 27th in scoring and even with Justin Jefferson they have the second-worst pass offense.
• The Bills are 3-0 on the road with all games being of the shootout variety. They allowed at least 30 points in those games outscoring opponents by an average of 35.3 to 31.7 while going OVER the NFL odds total each time.

NFL Predictions for This Week

The level of parity makes accurate NFL predictions difficult. However, there are several games on the Week 9 slate that appear to be locks. As it stands right now the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs. As a 12-point home favorite, Seattle needs to win games and they will take out Arizona.

Predictions for the Biggest Games

• With the number of playmakers the Falcons have on offense it took a monsoon in Florida to stop them. Michael Penix Jr. also tossed four interceptions and Atlanta was shutout 16-0 by Tampa Bay. They will need to score some points to hang with Cincinnati, which has the best passing attack in the NFL behind Joe Burrow. The good news for Atlanta is that Cincy’s defense has holes that Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson can exploit for a crucial 31-27 upset victory.
• With the Giants coming off a bye and the Eagles in free-fall, this NFC East contest looks like a mismatch. Divisional games are always unpredictable and being just two wins behind the Giants, the Eagles will play desperate before their bye. Tanner McKee is the guy at QB and while he hasn’t played terribly. Still this is a winnable game for the Eagles, who sneak back into the race with a narrow 17-13 win.
• Playing an inconsistent offense this week, the red-hot Broncos aim to improve their standing in the AFC in a Super Bowl 50 rematch with Carolina. Denver has won and covered its last four with the aggressive defense that helped them reach the AFC Championship a season ago harassing opponents. 

Potential Upsets This Week

• I don’t believe the Chargers are as bad as their 0-7 record, but you have to do a lot wrong to go winless. The Bolts have been cursed by the poor play of Justin Herbert. Still, they have a strong defensive front that could cause problems for C.J. Stroud. LA will stay within the 3.5-point spread and potentially earn their first win.
• NFL betting odds have New England as a 3-point home favorite, but the Packers are playing well of late making them a high-value upset candidate. The defense has been outstanding during a stretch that saw Green Bay go 4-1 holding every opponent to 20 points or less. Jordan Love leads the NFL’s No. 2 pass offense against a defense that allows big plays. 

NFL Best Bets Today and This Week

Betting on Week 9 NFL matchups focuses heavily on rest advantages and huge mismatches against the spread. One team that’s part of both scenarios is San Francisco, which comes off its bye as a 10.5-point home favorite against the Raiders. 

Spread and Moneyline Best Bets

• After two tough road losses Kansas City returns home to face the Jets as a 9.5-point favorite. Over their last five games when favored by a touchdown or more the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS. The Jets have stumbled on defense in recent games allowing an average of more than 30 points during a 3-game losing streak.
• With Caleb Williams slinging the ball and the Bears having the second-best run game, backing them at home to cover the 6-point line is a top NFL pick. And Chicago got much improved on defense with the acquisition of Jeffery Simmons.
• Containing mobile QBs is something the Rams have had trouble doing. Jayden Daniels can upset the aggressive LA front and forcing turnovers is something no team does better than Washington. The East Coast start has hampered LA in the past making the Commanders a NFL prediction to stay within 5.5-points.

Totals and Betting Value

• We typically see grinders in divisional matchups, especially games in the NFC East. The Eagles had problems on offense even when Jalen Hurts was healthy. With Hurts out of the lineup the unit has continued to spiral behind Tanner McKee. With all data pointing to a low-scoring, defensive battle, make a wager on the UNDER 39.5 points.
• No one is hotter than Joe Burrow over the last several weeks and the Bengals have exploded on offense. And playing in better conditions will aid Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons, who look to atone for last week’s shutout loss. The teams will put on a show in Spain going OVER the 52.5-point total.

NFL Picks and Parlays

Backing heavy favorites in single wager offers little value so instead use those games as anchors in weekly NFL picks and parlays. The Bears and Broncos are strong picks to cover the spread and could be used to enhance a multi-team parlay card.

NFL Parlay Ideas for the Week

• As double-digit NFL betting odds favorites, San Francisco and Jacksonville are popular NFL picks to anchor a multi-leg parlay.
• To increase the odds for a higher payout experts have identified a point spread parlay focusing on teams with a strong chance of covering: Washington (+5.5) vs. LA Rams, Chicago (-6) vs. Tampa, and Kansas City (-9.5) vs. NY Jets.

What to Consider Before Building an NFL Parlay

• Same game or multi-leg parlays are harder to hit which is why the odds are better. Don’t get sucked into building a parlay by enticing odds.
• The odds of winning a parlay decrease with more wagers added to the ticket. To enhance your chances of winning, limit the parlay bets to two or three.

Key Factors Behind This Week’s NFL Predictions

The single biggest factor that affects NFL football betting odds is injuries. With their top two QBs on the shelf, the Ravens are listed as a 10-point home dog for their matchup with Jacksonville. The Bengals and Falcons will face travel fatigue for their international game.

Injuries and Player Availability

• In a normal situation Baltimore would be favored at home against the Jags. With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley sidelined the Ravens are a double-digit dog with Joe Fagnano the announced starter.
• Arizona’s offense lost a key piece and the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds shuffled with Jeremiyah Love put on IR. The Jets are also monitoring the health of RB Breece Hall ahead of their game at Kansas City.

Rest, Travel and Recent Team Form

• The Saints, Niners, Giants and Texans all have the advantage of rest coming off their bye and all are positioned as favorites on the early NFL betting odds.
• International games come with a price. Travel fatigue is real with teams crossing multiple time zones and losing up to a day of preparation.

Final NFL Weekly Preview

Two interconference NFL football games feature division leaders going head-to-head and the outcomes will shape the standings moving forward. Riding a 4-game winning streak Denver is a slight favorite to beat Carolina. The biggest game on the schedule closes out the week with Buffalo, a 3.5-point road favorite to beat Minnesota. With wacky weather all over the country, rain and/or wind could impact game totals and on-field performance at outdoor stadiums that could sway some NFL predictions.