NCAAF Week 10 Predictions: Odds, Games & Best Bets

Several teams responded with big wins last week setting up a memorable Week 10 as the college football season makes a run to the home stretch. The team in serious trouble is Ohio State, which fell to USC in the Buckeyes’ first game without starting QB Julian Sayin. OSU gets Oregon at home this week with a chance to turn things around and the Buckeyes are home favorites in NCAAF odds. One of three unbeaten teams left in the FBS, UCLA leads the Big Ten and returns to conference play with a tough road matchup against Minnesota. 

The Holy War between Utah and BYU will have a direct impact on the Big 12 race with the Utes unbeaten and in first place. A number of crucial matchups will make college football predictions this week extremely difficult, including the biggest game on the slate, the top 5 showdown between No. 1 ranked Miami and No. 4 Notre Dame, one of six games between ranked foes on the Week 10 docket.

Top College Football Games This Week

Several massive college football games dot the schedule with the top 3 teams in the new AP Top 25 poll all facing another nationally ranked team. In fact six of the top 10 teams will be facing a crucial moment in their season schedule with matchups against another ranked opponent. 

Ranked Matchups

• An AP top 5 matchup is the highlight of the Week 10 schedule with unbeaten No. 1 Miami visiting No. 4 Notre Dame. Criticized for what many perceive a soft schedule, this is a premium spot for the Irish to prove themselves.
• BYU and Utah tangle in their annual rivalry with more than bragging rights in the state on the line. Utah moved to No. 3 in the AP poll with BYU at No. 7.
• Four SEC games feature ranked teams with league co-leaders No. 2 Georgia and No. 8 Kentucky on the road to face No. 12 Ole Miss and No. 16 Tennessee respectively.

Conference Showdowns

• First place in the Big 12 is on the line in the Holy War matchup between Utah and BYU. The Cougars are just a game behind in the conference standings and are looking for their fourth straight series win.
• UCLA puts its perfect record on the line against Minnesota in a crucial Big Ten game. The Gophers have three upset conference wins this season and took Indiana to overtime in a heartbreaking defeat last week.
• Ole Miss can further jumble the SEC standings with a win over Georgia. The Dawgs are co-leaders with one conference loss while the Rebels are one of six teams with two setbacks.

Rivalry Games to Watch

• It’s not a rivalry game in the true sense of the word, but Miami and Notre Dame have played epic contests over the years as highly ranked teams. Saturday’s matchup is a major playoff-shaping contest.
• As far as rivalries go there is none bigger than the BYU-Utah confrontation. The Holy War takes on added significance this year with both teams at the top of the Big 12 standings. Utah is one of three unbeaten FBS teams with BYU having only one loss.
• Reserved for the first Saturday in November, the LSU-Alabama matchup is one of the most intense in the SEC, often determining who controls the conference. With both teams having two losses this is a possible SEC and CFP elimination game.

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College Football Weekly Predictions

College football betting lines are out for a loaded Week 10 of college football picks. Four SEC games between ranked foes will have a direct impact on the conference standings, and the Big Ten has a couple of prominent games with upset potential. 

Game-by-Game Predictions

• The top 5 matchup between Miami and Notre Dame is a showcase for the Irish, who are looking to silence critics. Getting this matchup at home is a bonus and their aggressive defense is capable of silencing Miami’s offense. The Canes were sloppy on defense against UNC giving C.J. Carr a chance to have a big game.
• Throw out the stats and records in the Holy War matchup between BYU and Utah. The Cougars have struggled since upsetting Notre Dame, falling to UCF and just getting by Arizona State last week. That’s not a good sign against one of the stingiest defenses in the country and on the road.
• In a high-stakes SEC battle look for Georgia to avenge a loss to Ole Miss in last season’s CFP. The Dawgs’ are potent offensively behind Gunner Stockton and they have one of the top defenses that just quieted Florida in a big win. UGA also looks to maintain first place in the SEC standings.

Upset Alerts

• College football predictions have targeted Minnesota as an upset pick in their Big Ten matchup with UCLA. Ty Dieffenbach faces his first true test against a strong Gophers defense on the road. Minnesota nearly pulled off an upset against Indiana falling in OT and boasts a 5-3 record with three upset wins already.
• Missouri has been tough at home going 4-0 with convincing SEC wins over Florida and Texas A&M. Texas has seemingly righted its season, but faces a stout Tigers front that is capable of stopping the Horns’ offensive rhythm.

Score Predictions

• Notre Dame 31, Miami 26
• Georgia 27, Ole Miss 21
• Utah 24, BYU 18
• LSU 30, Alabama 24

College Football Betting Odds

College football odds have surfaced for Week 10 with the No. 1 team in the AP poll in a rare underdog spot. Undefeated Miami travels to Notre Dame getting 4.5-points on the early line. Major sportsbooks have tight margins for some of the critical games on the slate.

Point Spreads

• Despite holding the No. 1 ranking in the AP poll and having the highest scoring team in the FBS, Miami opened as a 4.5-point underdog against Notre Dame. The Canes are facing the strongest defensive team they’ve played and they struggled to stop UNC last week.
• With a dominant 5-0 SU and ATS record at home this season, Utah is a 6.5-point favorite on the early line in their showdown with BYU. The Utes are third in the Big 12 in scoring and second in scoring defense giving them a near touchdown advantage.
• Georgia’s defense is expected to slow the Ole Miss attack leaving the visiting Dawgs as a 3.5-point road favorite.

Moneyline Odds

• LSU is getting support for its home game against Alabama. The spread quickly moved past LSU -5 and the juice heavily favors the Tigers at home at -205 with a near 67 percent implied probability.
• Backed by a 4.5-point opening spread in their game with Miami, Notre Dame holds a roughly 65 percent implied probability.
• Most are backing Ohio State even without Julian Sayin to beat Oregon. The Buckeyes are coming off a loss to USC but are priced at -278 on the moneyline with a 73.5 percent probability.

Over/Under Totals

• Backing the UNDER in an Iowa game will make you a winner 75 percent of the time. Their aggressive defense and a slow tempo make for low-scoring games. The Hawkeyes pitched their third shutout of the season hitting the UNDER in a 30-0 win over Wisconsin.
• The Utah-BYU game opened with a total of 41. Analysts expect a low-scoring, field-position dominated game with two defenses having the upper hand. The UNDER is 3-1 in Utah’s last four home games.

Best College Football Bets This Week

Analysts are targeting situational vulnerabilities, homefield advantages and schematic mismatches to determine this week’s college football best bests. Both Notre Dame and Utah are getting strong backing for playing this week’s contest at home against a strong opponent.

Best Spread Bets

• Notre Dame provides the stiffest competition yet for No. 1 ranked Miami. The Canes’ secondary was exposed in the narrow win over UNC and the pressure is mounting heading into South Bend. Notre Dame’s disciplined defense can have success against Miami’s aggressive offense, putting the home team as a college football pick to cover.
• Catching UCLA in an early game benefits Minnesota even more, making the 6-point spread more appealing. The Gophers will challenge with a stiff defense forcing backup Ty Dieffenbach to make decisions quicker than he’s had to in the past to allow Minnesota to stay close.
• Bama’s Keelon Russell has struggled on the road giving LSU a clear edge in the hostile Death Valley environment. Back the Bayou Bengals at -5.5 for the win.

Best Moneyline Picks

• Kentucky is the ultimate road winner pulling off several huge wins in tough away situations. They enter this game as a near touchdown underdog giving them plenty of value with a moneyline price of +200.
• To avoid the 3.5-point hook back Oklahoma State on the moneyline instead in the matchup with Kansas State. With K-State struggling losing four of five, the price of -175 holds value and avoids the dreaded 3-point win.

Best Totals Bets

• With both teams missing their starting QB and offenses stagnant under backups, the opening total of 56 in the Oregon-Ohio State game is too high. Needing a win the Buckeyes will control the pace with a strong ground game limiting scoring chances.
• It’s hard to see a lot of points being scored between BYU and Utah. Utah’s stifling defense and the physical nature of this rivalry game make backing the UNDER 47.5 the smart college football betting pick.
• With LSU and Alabama having two losses, this could be a CFP elimination game. LSU topped 30 points in each of its last five games and Bama can score with Keelon Russell breaking out of his funk. This matchup has the firepower to go OVER the total of 52.5.

Games With the Biggest Betting Value

Opening college football betting market inefficiencies and early line movement highlight the biggest betting value plays on the Week 10 board. Savvy bettors are targeting mispriced odds where public perception contradicts statistical data.

Underdogs Worth Backing

• The top ranked Big 12 scoring defense of TCU will keep the Horned Frogs in their game with Arizona. Getting 9.5 points on the early line makes TCU an enticing college football betting pick as an underdog worth backing.
• Though they are just 5-3, Minnesota has been a feisty group losing last week to Indiana in OT. Given what we now know about Oregon, this is UCLA’s most difficult test of the season on the road against a tough defensive team. Back the Gophers plus the 6-points.

Favorite Teams Worth Laying Points

• Notre Dame will be extra pumped when it faces No. 1 Miami. The Irish have been criticized for a soft schedule and they have a chance to put that to rest. Boasting the best scoring defense in the country, while ranking among the top 10 in several other categories, the Irish will clamp down using home field advantage to cover the 5.5-point spread.
• It’s been a shaky season for Oklahoma after losing to South Carolina, 42-25, last week. The lack of consistent offense leaves them vulnerable on the road against Florida, which is looking to reset after a tough loss to Georgia. The Gators are the superior and at home should cover by more than a touchdown.

Trap Games

• Travelling to Missouri after back-to-back wins could catch the Longhorns off guard. The Tigers are tough at home with a physical defensive front that pressures opposing quarterbacks. Mizzou has the roster to drag this game out should Texas take a deep breath.
• After beating Nevada in a non-conference game for their eighth straight success, UCLA is in a trap spot for their trip to Minnesota. The Gophers are just 5-3, but they’ve played well posting several upsets at home. And their defense will be something different for Ty Dieffenbach to figure out.

Teams Trending Up and Down

Miami, UCLA and Utah all won last week to remain undefeated. The Canes are No. 1 in the college football rankings for a third straight week while UCLA cracked the top 5 for the first time in nearly 25 years. In their first game without Julian Sayin Ohio State fell to No. 11 in the poll.

Teams on Winning Streaks

• Backed by the most prolific offense in the FBS, Miami has won eight straight to start the season. The Canes average 47.6 points per game with Darian Mensah throwing 25 TD passes and only one interception.
• Strong defensive play has allowed UCLA to remain unbeaten (8-0) despite the loss of starting QB Nico Iamaleava. The Bruins lead the country in takeaways and rank 7th in total defense.
• With 13 straight regular season wins dating back to last year, Utah has a winning tradition. The Utes boast the 9th best total offense and 11th best scoring offense in the FBS.

Teams Losing Momentum

• Ohio State has a chance to change the narrative this week, but after losing to USC without starting QB Julian Sayin, their CFP hopes could be on the brink.
• Ranked among the top 10 in the preseason AP poll, Texas A&M is hopeful just to become bowl eligible. They enter the week at 4-4 with two of their victories over Missouri State and The Citadel.

Injury Updates

• With Julian Sayin out Ohio State lost to USC last week. Their CFP hopes rest on Luke Fahey.
• LSU has a gap in its defense for the Alabama game with LB Whit Weeks sidelined.
• Texas will be without key players Hollywood Smothers and Kendrick Littleton for this week’s game at Missouri.

Players to Watch This Week

Ohio State getting back in the CFP race hinges on the play of Luke Fahey. He didn’t play poorly in the USC game throwing for 260 yards with a TD and no turnovers.

Quarterbacks to Watch

• Alabama’s Keelon Russell is another young QB who needs to perform to help his team. Russell struggled in his last road start but he’s coming off a confidence-building game against Texas A&M.
• Faced with a tough assignment at Minnesota against a strong defense, UCLA’s Ty Dieffenbach must avoid mistakes for the Bruins to stay perfect.
• BYU’s upset chances directly hinge on the play of Bear Bachmeier.

Impact Playmakers

• Isaiah Mizell has become a premier player in Arizona’s offense after Tre Spivey went down. Mizell has more than 130 receiving yards in three straight games with 4 TDs.
• Miami’s Malachi Toney is a key to working around Notre Dame’s structured defense. Toney has the second-most TD catches in the country with 13.

Defensive Difference-Makers

• With 6 sacks and 11.5 TFLs, Tennessee’s Xavier Gilliam matches up against a beefy Kentucky offensive line.
• The Texas defense will get a boost if Colin Simmons returns this week. Simmons leads the country with 10.5 sacks despite missing the last two games.
• Tied for the national lead with 5 picks, Oklahoma State’s LaDainian Fields can alter a game.

Factors Behind Our Weekly Picks

Weekly college football betting tips are based on a team’s recent form, player availability, statistical analysis and matchups. A big factor is the health and play of quarterbacks.

Home-Field Advantage

• The enormous crowds and the mystique of playing at Notre Dame Stadium give the Irish a considerable home field edge in their game with Miami.
• LSU’s Tiger Stadium has historically been tough for visitors with a notoriously hostile crowd making it tough for Alabama’s offense.

Turnover Matchups

• UCLA leads the country with 26 takeaways and boasts the second-best turnover margin at plus-15. The Bruins have at least 3 takeaways in six of eight games.
• Pressuring Keelon Russell will help LSU. As a team the Tigers have the second-most sacks in the FBS with 34 and Russell has struggled when pressured.

Strength of Schedule

• Strength of schedule is a critical metric used in college football analysis to evaluate the true power of a team beyond the win-loss record.
• According to ESPN’s FPI, UCLA has the 77th most difficult schedule in the FBS. That’s one reason why they were delayed in reaching the top 5 in national rankings. Their remaining schedule is ranked 41st.

Looking Ahead to Next Week

With tight races in the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten, there are a number of high-profile college football games to look forward to in Week 11. A big question is how many teams will be unbeaten.

Early Lines to Watch

• In search of their first ACC title, Miami can take another step toward that goal with a home game against defending conference champion Duke. 
• Texas and LSU meet in another massive SEC game with both teams needing a win to help their CFP resume.
• North Texas and UTSA will duel in Week 11 with first place in the American Conference at stake. Both teams enter their Week 10 games unbeaten in league play.

Potential Ranked Matchups

• USC reentered the national rankings by beating Ohio State and travels to Indiana in Week 11 with both teams coming off a bye. 
• Another huge game in the SEC has Texas at LSU. Both teams have been nationally ranked all season.
• A massive game for positioning the ACC has Wake Forest taking on SMU. The Mustangs can get back in the rankings with a win over Virginia Tech in Week 10.

Games With Playoff Implications

• In the 12-team CFP era two programs qualified with three losses. That puts a number of teams on the fence heading into the final weeks of the season.
• Navigating the rest of the season without QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State aims to keep its CFP hopes alive against surprising Northwestern.
• The SEC matchup between Texas and LSU is a likely CFP elimination game.