NFL Thursday Night Football Predictions: 49ers vs. Rams Odds & Preview

The first NFL Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2026 season should be a good one with NFC West hopefuls the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams battling in Australia. The Rams are the preseason Super Bowl favorite boasting reigning MVP Matthew Stafford and Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. They also recently added three-time DPOY Aaron Donald back from retirement. 

Playing in the toughest division in the NFL, both teams would like to start fast. The Rams and Niners finished 12-5 last season, two games back of the division-winning Seahawks. With seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings decided by a single score and both teams prepared to fight for the division crown, another close game is looming in our NFL Thursday Night Football predictions.

NFL Thursday Night Football This Week

NFL Thursday Night football this week has the league in Melbourne, Australia, for the NFC West tilt between rivals the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. This is the NFL’s first ever regular season game in Australia played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 10. The first Thursday night NFL football game of the season has the Rams positioned as a 3.5-point favorite on the early NFL betting line.

Thursday Night NFL Football Game Preview

• NFL Thursday Night Football kicks off with a NFC West contest between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams on September 10, 2026.
• Kickoff is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET with the game exclusively broadcast on Netflix.
• The NFL will play its first regular season game in Australia at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The listed capacity is near 100,000.

Key Storylines for This Week’s Matchup

• One storyline for NFL Thursday Night Football this week is the location and venue of the game. The league heads to Australia for the first time playing at the massive Melbourne Cricket Ground. The teams must manage a 16-hour time difference and travel load.
• The 49ers are counting on the return of several key players from injury to aid their quest for a division title. Both George Kittle and Nick Bosa are travelling with the team and are trending toward playing.
• Following the acquisition of Myles Garrett the Rams bolted up the NFL futures board. They became a heavier favorite when Aaron Donald announced he’s returning, though his status for the game is unknown at this time.

Who Plays Thursday Night Football NFL?

Longtime division rivals the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams will play the first Thursday night NFL football game of the 2026 season. This will be the 155th all-time meeting between the franchises in a series that dates back to 1950. They’ve been members of the same division since before the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. The Rams have won four of the last five meetings going 4-1 against the NFL line in that span.

Team Matchup

• Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 TDs to earn MVP. The Rams boasted the No. 1 offense in the league averaging 394.6 yards and 30.5 points per game. The Niners’ defense allowed more than 340 yards a game but conceded an average of just 21.8 points to rank 13th in the NFL.
• Bosa played only three games last season and the pass rush suffered. As a team the Niners had the fewest sacks in the NFL with 20. Pressuring Stafford is a key to slowing the Rams offense.
• A healthy Brock Purdy will help the Niners pass attack. They had the fifth-best pass offense last season and ranked seventh in total offense. Bringing Deebo Samuel back and acquiring Mike Evans can make the Niners more explosive.

Current Records and Recent Form

• Both teams ended last season with identical 12-5 records and lost on the road to Seattle in the playoffs. San Francisco fell in the Divisional Round while the Rams dropped a 31-27 decision in the NFC Championship.
• The teams split the season series with each winning and covering the NFL betting line on the road. Both games last season and six of the last seven overall have gone OVER the closing total.

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Where Can I Watch Thursday Night NFL Football?

The Week 1 NFL Thursday Night Football game between the Rams and 49ers will air exclusively on Netflix as part of the streaming platform's expanded coverage of the NFL. Netflix inked a multi-year partnership with the league through the 2029-30 season.

TV and Streaming Information

• If your local market team is playing a Thursday night NFL football game the game will be broadcast on a local over-the-air television station in that team’s market.
• The Week 1 Thursday Night Football game will air exclusively on the streaming platform Netflix as part of their package with the league.
• Starting in Week 2 every game under the Thursday Night Football umbrella will be broadcast directly through the Prime Video app.

Thursday Night Football Start Time

• Every game during the regular season under the NFL Thursday Night Football umbrella will have a start time of 5:15 p.m. PT / 8:15 p.m. ET.

NFL Thursday Night Football Odds and Best Bets

Tabbed as the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Rams opened as a 3.5-point favorite on the NFL Thursday Night Football odds. Early odds had the Rams at -2.5 but major offseason roster moves pushed the number past the key number of 3. NFL Thursday Night Football bets are leaning toward backing the Rams minus the points and taking the UNDER on the total of 48.5. The NFL betting odds listed are current as of this writing.

Moneyline Odds

• Los Angeles Rams -198
• San Francisco 49ers +164

Point Spread

• Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-112)
• San Francisco 49ers +3.5 (-108)

Game Total

• Over 48.5 (-110)
• Under 48.5 (-110)

NFL Thursday Night Football Predictions

At this point we’re betting on what teams were rather than who they are. The Rams were nearly unstoppable offensively last year with Matthew Stafford leading the highest-scoring team. And the Rams went all in on the defensive side trading for Myles Garrett and coaxing Aaron Donald out of retirement. They also added some much needed depth in the secondary. The Niners are hoping to have a season where they don’t lose their squad to injury. If that happens they could be a contender in the NFL Thursday Night Football predictions.

Matchup Prediction

• The team with the better pass rush will most likely have an advantage, and going in that’s the Rams. Newly acquired Myles Garrett had more sacks last season than the entire 49ers defense and if Aaron Donald plays it could be a nightmare scenario for Brock Purdy.
• Entering the season the 49ers are mostly healthy after an injury-riddled last season. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are back and expected to play, putting up some level of resistance to the Rams attack.

Score Prediction

• There are a few things that lead me to believe the game will be lower scoring than most anticipate. Defense always has the advantage early in the season as players are more reactionary. And the Rams could have the best unit in the NFL this season.
• The Rams win the game 27-20.

Betting Prediction

• As long as the Rams don’t get caught up in their hype they will be the team to beat in most games. 
• The consensus NFL Thursday Night Football prediction favors the Rams to win and cover the football betting line.
• Most analysts are predicting a high-scoring international showcase, and I’m sure the NFL would like to see that in the league’s first trip down under. But backing the UNDER makes a lot of sense in our NFL Thursday Night Football predictions.

NFL Thursday Night Football Bets to Consider

For the historic Week 1 international opener the top NFL Thursday Night Football bets to consider focus on backing the Rams to cover the 3.5-point betting line while targeting the UNDER 48.5 game total. And considering the teams travelled around 8,000 miles to get to Australia, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see first half struggles making the UNDER on the first half total a wager worth considering.

Best Spread Bet

• NFL Thursday Night Football odds and best bets are backing the Rams to cover the 3.5-point line, backed by a defense that boasts Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald.

Best Total Bet

• Starters and key players were used sparingly if at all during the preseason leading to an adjustment period for both. Don’t expect the offenses to be firing on all cylinders.
• The NFL Thursday Night Football predictions have the UNDER cashing on the game total of 48.5.
• Rather than risking the full game total, look into backing the first-half UNDER if it sits at 24 or higher.

Best Moneyline Bet

• The best NFL Thursday Night Football bet on the moneyline is backing the Rams at -198. The price may appear steep, but backing LA to win outright is the safest play.
• With the spread crossing the key number of 3 the Rams are at risk of losing on the hook should they win by exactly three points.

NFL Thursday Night Football Player Props

Many of the strongest NFL Thursday Night Football player prop targets are on the offensive side of the football and the top two are with the Rams. That’s not a complete surprise seeing how well the unit performed last season. The LA passing game was relentless with Puka Nacua racking up 1,715 receiving yards. He’s a popular pick to go over his opening total of 89.5 receiving yards.

Quarterback Props

• Brock Purdy tossed 10 interceptions in nine games last season and will be working with new receivers while also trying to avoid the LA pass rush. With small windows I can see him tossing at least one pick going OVER his INT total of 0.5.
• Matthew Stafford led the NFL in TD passes last season and he has the weapons to throw to. Back Stafford for a TD pass in the NFL Thursday Night Football player props market.

H3: Running Back Props

• LA’s Kyren Williams is a prime candidate to go OVER his rushing yard total of 59.5. 
• The combined rushing and receiving yards prop total hasn’t been set at the time of this writing, but look for Christian McCaffrey to get plenty of touches to clear the OVER on his total.

Receiver Props

• Davante Adams was a favorite target of Stafford’s last season with a NFL high 14 TD grabs. The Rams won’t deviate from their successful plan allowing Adams to be an anytime touchdown scorer in the player prop market.
• To mitigate the Rams pass rush expect Purdy to utilize McCaffrey in the passing game as a check down option. This will allow CMac to clear the 4.5 receptions total on his NFL Thursday Night Football player prop.

Key Factors for Thursday Night NFL Football Game Predictions

The key factors for NFL Thursday Night Football predictions center around chaotic travel itineraries with the Rams and Niners having to travel around 8,000 miles to play the Week 1 contest. In addition, major defensive upgrades from the Rams and critical 49ers injury recoveries. The teams are handling the logistics of a 15-hour flight and massive time zone shift differently with San Francisco arriving a week ahead of the game and the Rams leaving much later.

Short Week Rest and Injuries

• With two weeks between the final preseason game and the season opener, the teams have had plenty of time to game plan and recover from training camp ailments.
• As he’s done for the past few years, LA’s Sean McVay sat all of his starters and key players the entire preseason. He started the practice in 2021 and the Rams went on to win the Super Bowl. The team is 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five openers.

Home-Field Advantage

• With this Thursday night NFL football game the first regular season contest played in Australia at a neutral-site, neither team has home field advantage. 
• The Rams played an International Series game last year beating Jacksonville, 35-7, in London. They are 3-2 all-time in games overseas.
• The 49ers have excelled in international games winning all three of their contests, though they haven’t played an International Series contest since 2022.

Matchup Trends

• The teams and coaches are quite familiar with each other. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan took over their respective posts in 2017 and are now in their 10th year. There won’t be many surprises.
• The Rams have reclaimed the rivalry with wins and covers in four of the last five meetings. Prior to that, the Niners had a 9-game regular season winning streak. Shanahan owns an 11-7 advantage over McVay in the previous nine seasons with the Rams victorious in the only playoff game in that span.
• In games where Brock Purdy faces a pressure rate higher than 35 percent his passer rating drops and the 49ers are just 2-5 against the NFL betting line in those situations. LA’s defense is built to exploit this.

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Some of the key NFL Thursday Night Football betting trends won’t even apply for this matchup. Home teams win more often on TNF so that could be considered a win for the Rams since they are the designated home club. However, favorites and UNDERS tend to dictate the broader historical betting trends.

Against the Spread Trends

• NFL betting line favorites historically win and cover the spread more frequently on Thursday’s compared to standard Sunday results.
• Cover rates often improve later in the season as teams start to forge an identity.

Over/Under Trends

• Games on short rest feature higher scoring volatility and totals tend to trend toward the UNDER as the season progresses.
• That obviously doesn’t apply here since this is the first game of the season, but travelling 8,000 miles to play a game will take a toll.

Head-to-Head Trends

• The Rams have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings going 4-1 ATS in those games. Three of their wins were when they closed as the betting underdog.
• The teams played five straight games that were decided by seven points or less until LA’s 42-26 win last November.
• The OVER cashed in both games last season and in six of the previous seven overall.