NFL Week 7 Predictions: Odds, Best Bets & Preview

It’s hard to imagine the Tennessee Titans winning a game before the Los Angeles Chargers, but that’s what happened leaving the Bolts as one of two winless teams heading into Week 7 of the NFL season. LA won’t get a chance to end their slump since they are one of four teams to have a bye leaving 14 games on the slate in which to make NFL weekly predictions. The league’s International Series continues with the first ever regular season game in Paris, France, featuring New Orleans and Pittsburgh.

Featured NFL Games This Week

The three remaining unbeaten teams are all in action in Week 7 with two of them looking to extend their streak on the road. Kansas City came off its bye and improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the Chargers and visits Seattle on Sunday night in one of the marquee NFL football games this week. The Seahawks opened as a slight 2.5-point NFL betting line favorite. San Francisco is at Atlanta on a short week following their Monday night game.

The week starts on Thursday night with a matchup of the top two quarterbacks selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and the Bears host No. 3 pick Drake Maye and the Patriots with both teams at 4-2. The NFL betting week concludes on Monday night with a NFC East matchup between reeling teams when the Cowboys are at Philadelphia. The Eagles have dropped four straight and will reportedly be without Jalen Hurts for the remainder of the season.

Matchups With the Biggest Storylines

• There are several storylines associated with the Thursday night matchup between the Bears and Patriots. Not only is it the second head-to-head meeting between QBs taken first and third overall in 2024, it’s the Bears first home game since the passing of franchise icon Mike Ditka, who coached the Bears to their only Super Bowl title beating the Pats after the 1985 season.
• The NFL makes its debut in Paris, France, with Pittsburgh facing New Orleans in an interconference matchup. The Steelers enter as a tri-leader in the AFC North while the Saints are a game back in the NFC South.
• Recent Super Bowl champions square off in the PNW on Sunday night. The Seahawks are the reigning champions while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are looking to recapture the glory of back-to-back Super Bowl titles from the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Games That Could Impact the Playoff Picture

• The NFC North is one of the most competitive divisions in football with every team above .500. The Lions come off their bye and face Green Bay with the teams looking to stay within striking distance of first-place Minnesota while also improving their wild card chances.
• It looks like no team wants to win the NFC East meaning Dallas and Philadelphia are still in running despite their recent woes. The Eagles have lost four in a row and the Cowboys two straight.
• The Pats and Bears aren’t in the same division or the same conference, but the outcome of their Thursday game will help the winner. Both teams enter at 4-2 and look to improve their standing within their respective conference.

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NFL Picks & Predictions

Expert consensus for Week 7 NFL picks leans heavily toward home favorites like Chicago, Baltimore, and Minnesota, with several tight NFL odds point spreads defining the 14-game schedule. Also, NFL predictions today expect highly-contested divisional matchups with all five of those games having an early point spread of 4.5 points or lower 

Predicted Winners

• The Bears exploded for 31 points against Atlanta with Caleb Williams back in the lineup and the Patriots have a dilemma with three injured offensive linemen ahead of a short week game. Back the Bears as a NFL pick at home minus the points.
• Both teams are reeling but the Cowboys are in a better place health-wise and will use that to take down the Eagles in a crucial NFC East matchup.
• In what figures to be a high scoring game the Detroit Lions have the advantage coming off a bye and playing at home in a tense divisional contest with Green Bay. Extra time to prep defensively should push the Lions to cover the 3-point NFL odds spread.

Potential Upsets to Watch

• The undefeated Chiefs opened as a rare underdog (+2.5) on the road against Seattle. Historically, backing Patrick Mahomes when getting points has been a profitable NFL pick.
• With Lamar Jackson doubtful to return for the Ravens, the door is open for Joe Burrow and Cincinnati to get a critical division win as a slight 2.5-point dog and coming off a bye that healed some ailments to top playmakers.
• The Vikings have benefitted from a soft schedule and their luck will run out against a punishing Colts ground game that’s built to expose the Vikings’ defensive vulnerabilities.

Games That Could Be Closer Than Expected

• Long distance travel after a Monday night game isn’t ideal and the fatigue factor will affect the 49ers, who are in for a much closer game than most expect.
• The Jets and Dolphins don’t score a lot of points, which in itself will keep the game close. Toss in Miami’s rest advantage following their bye and the Fins can easily stay within the 5.5-point NFL odds point spread.

NFL Odds & Betting Preview

You don’t often see a team with a losing record open as a double-digit favorite against a division leader in Week 7. But that’s what we have with Houston, the biggest NFL betting odds favorite laying 10-points to the visiting Giants. All but one of the other 13 games opened with a spread of 4.5-points or lower.

How the Betting Lines Compare

• With 18 teams having won at least three games the balance is evident and the NFL odds have tightened. Only two games opened with a spread higher than 4.5 points.
• Three games opened with a total higher than 50 with the expected shootout between Green Bay and Detroit the highest at 53.5. The Dolphins-Jets game has the lowest total at 38.5 points.

Factors That Could Move the Odds

• With an unusual amount of star players getting hurt and missing time early in the season, injury reports will have a direct impact on NFL odds up until the games kickoff. Players returning from injury will also influence lines.
• Heavy betting action on teams that are on a hot streak or on high-profile teams triggers market corrections that tend to overvalue those clubs.

Best Bets for This Week's NFL Games

Top NFL analysts have targeted several games as Week 7 NFL best bets, heavily maximizing value from rare underdog lines, highlighted by undefeated Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes getting points in their contest with Seattle. 

Underdogs Worth Considering

• The Chiefs when getting points under Patrick Mahomes have been one of the most profitable NFL betting picks.
• Uncertainty at QB has the Giants as a 10-point road dog against Houston. Whether its Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy, New York is better equipped to handle the situation and getting that many points makes them a NFL best bet to cover.

Betting Markets With Potential Value

• When betting boards are tightly packed – 12 of the 14 games have a point spread of 4.5 points or less – value is found in teams with a heavy rest advantage and in favorable point total conditions.
• Advanced stats identify Cleveland as a value play with the line (-1.5) against 1-5 Tennessee a near tossup. Getting a superior team at a borderline pick‘em price offers intense value.

Final NFL Weekly Predictions & Key Takeaways

The biggest takeaways for NFL Week 7 focus again on key injuries and quarterback statements that have impacted the playoff landscape. The Eagles lost Jalen Hurts for the season and the Giants have a full-blown QB controversy. In addition the majority of the weekly schedule is expected to be close with a tight spread of 4.5 points or less in 12 of 14 games.

Biggest Factors to Monitor

• A wave of injuries to key players has shifted depth charts and forced changes in NFL betting markets. To make a more informed wager monitor practice reports ahead of kickoff.
• Already in a free-fall, the Eagles are forced to navigate the rest of the season without Jalen Hurts. Monitor how the offense adjusts in a critical game with division foe Dallas.
• Tracking the effect of international travel (Houston) and compressed schedules with key injuries (New England, Chicago) is key for straight up and ATS betting picks.

Key Matchup to Monitor

• The biggest matchup to monitor in Week 7 is the high-stakes showdown between Green Bay and Detroit that carries huge implications in the NFC North and conference wild card seeding. The game also has potential to be a shootout with two dangerous offensive teams having the largest total on the weekly board.