College Football Predictions: SMU at Florida State Odds & Best Bets

Week 1 of the college football season closes out on Labor Day with an ACC tilt between the No. 19 SMU Mustangs and the Florida State Seminoles. The Noles got their season underway a week earlier in a lackluster 34-17 win over New Mexico State in a game they were favored by more than 30 points. A favorite to reach the ACC Championship game, the Mustangs boast an electric offense behind veteran QB Kevin Jennings and opened as a 3-point college football betting favorite in their first ever trip to Tallahassee.

The Week 1 ACC matchup between SMU and Florida State takes place on Monday, September 7, 2026 from Doak Campbell Stadium on the FSU campus in Tallahassee, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET with television coverage on ESPN.

SMU at Florida State Preview

The Mustangs have been really good the last few seasons bringing back memories of the Pony Express glory days, only without the off field controversy. Over the last three years SMU is 31-10 overall and 22-2 in ACC play, and even reached the College Football Playoff in the 2024 season. The turnaround was masterminded by Rhett Lashlee, who brought his offensive genius to Dallas.

Under Lashlee the Mustangs have averaged more than 32 points each season with the lowest number coming last season when SMU was fourth in the ACC at 32.2 points per game. They should be on course for another productive year with Kevin Jennings at the helm. Last year Jennings completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,641 yards and 23 TDs. There are concerns with the offense, though. The top two rushers and four of their top five receivers from a season ago need to be replaced. Jennings also missed time in camp due to a finger injury.

• The Mustangs finished last season at 9-4 overall and 6-2 in the ACC. They tied for second in the conference but missed out on a return trip to the title game in a wild five-team tiebreaker.
• The offense got plenty of publicity last season but the Mustangs were also stout defensively sporting the third-best scoring defense in the ACC. They did lose four starters from the unit but added valuable pieces through the transfer portal.
• Cal transfer Kendrick Raphael is expected to handle the bulk of the work in the running game. Described by coaches as a true three-down back, Raphael rushed for 943 yards and 13 TDs for the Bears last season.

The big news in Tallahassee is that Mike Norvell is back for another college football season. Many expected a change after the Noles went 5-7 last year, their second straight losing season and fourth in six campaigns under Norvell. FSU struggled in its season-opening win over New Mexico State likely because a bulk of the roster is brand new. The squad has more than 60 new players with more than half of them added through the transfer portal.

New quarterback Ashton Daniels had an up and down opener going 17 of 27 for 202 yards and a TD. He also had a rushing TD and tossed an interception as the Noles racked up 419 total yards. Samuel Singleton Jr. returned to the program looking to be a bigger contributor. He got the chance last week as the team’s Swiss army knife. He had nine carries for 42 yards, caught four passes for 54 yards and his 46 yard kickoff return set up a TD that he scored.

• The Noles had a tough time in the red zone last season ranking 95th in the country in score percentage. They turned that around last week going 6 for 6 in the red zone against NMSU with four TDs and two field goals. 
• One glaring weakness was the lack of pressure the defensive front put on the Aggies last week. They recorded three sacks but Trey Hedden completed 26 of 42 pass attempts and NMSU converted 10 of 17 third down plays.
• The Noles failed to cover the college football betting line last week and they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.

SMU at Florida State Predictions

Florida State wasn’t all that impressive in last week’s win, but they did play a game getting a chance to integrate a bunch of new players on their roster into the system. My college football predictions have this game being closer than most expect, which is favoring SMU after the Noles’ less than impressive Week 0 victory. FSU did a nice job running the football in the opener amassing 217 yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average. Possessing the football and keeping it away from SMU’s potent attack will be a key if the Noles are to have any success.

• Leaning on a strong ground game in an effort to keep the ball away from Kevin Jennings and SMU’s offense, the Noles will control the clock and closer dictate the score, at least that’s the hope. If they can do that the final score will fall UNDER the closing total.
• Another reason for backing the UNDER is that SMU is breaking in new skill players around their star QB. There will be an adjustment period with Jennings throwing to a new group of receivers behind a rebuilt offensive line.
• FSU should have a better showing with a game in hand, but the Mustangs are a talented team that will cover the college football odds getting better as the game progresses.

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SMU at Florida State Betting Tips

Both teams are integrating new players at key positions, which is the norm in college football today. What makes Florida State an intriguing gamble is that they’ve already played a game beating New Mexico State 34-17 in Week 0. The outcome wasn’t the thrashing most expected, but it did give the Seminoles much-needed reps for the roster of new players. And despite their record last season, SMU was a losing bet going 6-7 against the college football betting line.

• Three of SMU’s four losses last year came in road games where the Mustangs went 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS.
• Analysts are suggesting to lay the points with SMU if the college football odds go under a field goal. At this time the line stands at SMU -3. There were issues with FSU’s pass protection and third-down defense in the opener, areas the Mustangs are equipped to exploit.
• Targeting SMU on the first-half spread allows you to back the better team without worrying about a possible late-game backdoor cover from FSU.

SMU at Florida State Head to Head and Key Stats

There isn’t much history between the programs with only one previous meeting. In 2024 the Mustangs throttled FSU, 42-16, in Dallas covering the 6.5-point college football spread. That was the first ACC game for SMU and Kevin Jennings, who dominated by throwing for 254 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. SMU’s defense throttled the Noles allowing just 63 yards rushing, 222 total yards, and intercepting three passes. 

• The Mustangs won the only game between the schools, 42-16, in their ACC debut two years ago making this matchup the first ever between them on FSU’s home field, where all five Noles’ wins last season took place.
• It’s only one game, but FSU’s third-down defense was atrocious against an inferior opponent. The Noles allowed New Mexico State to convert 10 of 17 third-down plays with little pressure applied to the opposing QB on passing downs.
• Despite their impressive offensive numbers, SMU’s defense was solid a season ago allowing them to cash the UNDER on the college football odds in seven of their final 10 games.