Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins Betting Picks

On Sunday, two teams stuck in lost seasons will get a consolation prize. The Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders will get a working vacation in Madrid, Spain.

While it may not be the Super Bowl, it is a welcome getaway for two teams that were expected to do much better with the NFL Odds in 2025.

Washington will be without the services of quarterback Jayden Daniels, the man who led them to the 2024 NFC Championship Game.

The Dolphins recently fired their general manager, and head coach Mike McDaniel is unlikely to return in 2026.

The Sunday morning games from Europe are highly popular with gamblers.

Miami has perked up lately, while Washington is in free fall.

Commanders at Dolphins Preview

On Sunday, November 16, 2025, the Miami Dolphins will host the Washington Commanders at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, Spain. Kickoff time is 9:30 a.m. ET with television coverage on the NFL Network.

Miami is the designated home team for this game in Madrid.

Public Betting Odds Factors

Neither team is going to excite NFL betting gamblers because of poor records.
The Commanders are suffering from a market correction after coming out of nowhere to make the NFC Championship Game.
Jaden Daniels is suffering from a sophomore jinx and is out with an injury.
The careers of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDaniel are imploding. Thus, gambling action will be wide open and split evenly.

Commanders at Dolphins Predictions

Handicapping Factors to Consider

In this situation, with the loss of Jayden Daniels, Miami should have the advantage at quarterback.
Miami has shown better-than-expected value and has become a solid contrarian play.
The Commander's betting value is falling, and the worst may not be over yet.
If Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, Miami has the advantage.

Commanders at Dolphins Prime Best Bet: Miami Dolphins

Commanders at Dolphins Betting Tips

Miami opened as a 2.5-point favorite and a -144 moneyline chalk.
Washington opened as a 2.5-point dog and a +122 moneyline dog.
The Commanders and Dolphins opened with a total of 47.5.

Miami Dolphins

Miami is in 3rd place in the AFC East Division, 2.5 games behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final AFC wild card playoff spot.
Overall, Miami ranks 27th for total offense, 24th for passing, 25th for rushing, 26th for scoring, and 30th for fewest turnovers committed.
Miami ranks 22nd for total defense, 12th vs. the pass, 28th vs. rush, 26th for fewest points allowed, and 31st for takeaways.
Last game, the Miami Dolphins won 30-13 against the Buffalo Bills as 8-point home dogs.
The game went under the total of 50.
Miami is 3-7 straight up, 5-5 against the spread, and 6-3-1 over/under the total.

Washington Commanders

Washington is in 3rd place in the NFC East Division, three games behind the Chicago Bears for the final NFC wild card playoff spot.
Washington ranks 17th for total offense, 26th for passing, 7th for rushing, 20th for scoring, and 20th for fewest turnovers committed.
Washington ranks 30th for total defense, 30th vs. the pass, 23rd vs. rush, 29th for fewest points allowed, and 20th for takeaways.
Last game, the Washington Commanders lost 44-22 against the Detroit Lions as 8.5-point home dogs.
The game went over the total of 48.5.
Washington is 3-7 straight up, 3-7 against the spread, and 5-5 over/under the total.

Commanders at Dolphins Head-to-Head and Key Stats

In the series between the Commanders and Dolphins, Washington failed to cover the spread in the most recent five meetings.
Six of the last eight games between the Dolphins and Commanders went under the total.
As the visiting team, Washington failed to cover the spread in the last two games against Miami.
Both games went under the total.
Washington was a poor value on the road.
The Commanders covered only three of their most recent 11 away games.
Washington went over the total in 12 of its last 20 away games.
The Dolphins have been a surprisingly good value at home.
The Dolphins covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
Miami went over the total in nine of its last ten home games.