UFC 318: Poirier vs Holloway Odds & Predictions

There’s a lot going on in the main event at UFC 318: Poirier vs. Holloway. Not only is the fight between Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway a duel in the stacked lightweight division, it also gives Holloway a chance to defend his symbolic “BMF” belt in a trilogy match. A native of Lafayette, Louisiana, Poirier elected to finish his UFC career in his home state with UFC 318 taking place at the Smoothie King Arena about two hours away on Interstate 10 in New Orleans. The UFC betting odds suggest a close fight with Holloway opening as a -140 favorite. With two wins already over his opponent Poirier has value as the underdog at +114.

UFC 318: Poirier vs. Holloway

The trilogy fight between Poirier (30-9-1, 15 KOs) and Holloway (26-8, 12 KOs) headlines the 14-fight card at UFC 318. A middleweight bout between former title challenger Paulo Costa (14-4, 11 KOs) and No. 14 ranked Roman Kopylov (14-3, 12 KOs) serves as the co-main event. The event takes place on Saturday, July 19 from the Smoothie King Arena in New Orleans, LA. The main card is available on ESPN pay-per-view with prelim fights on ESPN and ESPN2.

UFC 318: Poirier vs. Holloway Fight Preview

One of the top featherweights in UFC history, Holloway compiled a 16-3 record in the division winning the interim strap with a TKO of Anthony Pettis in 2016 and successfully defending three times before moving up to lightweight. Holloway lost his first UFC bout via submission to Poirier in 2012 and his first fight as a lightweight was also against Poirier in 2019. Holloway also lost that fight by unanimous decision at UFC 236. Over the last few years Holloway has bounced between divisions but confirmed earlier this year he will remain at lightweight. In April 2024 Holloway won the symbolic “BMF” title with a last second KO of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300.

There will be plenty of emotion in Poirier’s corner for this retirement bout. It’s been an illustrious career for the former interim lightweight champ who challenged three times for the official title. He also challenged once for the BMF title losing by KO to Gaethje at UFC 291. Poirier has beaten Holloway twice previously giving him a boost entering his final bout inside the Octagon.

UFC 318: Poirier vs. Holloway Key Stats

Both fighters have competed with the best UFC has and they’ve done well over their careers. Though Holloway is the favorite Poirier has his number winning the first two head-to-head duels. Using his proficiency as a boxer helped Poirier land significant victories over top strikers like Holloway, Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Conor McGregor. Though he’s two inches shorter than his opponent, Poirier has a weight and reach advantage that will allow him to play defense when Holloway goes for the strike.

Middleweight Bout

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Costa won his 13th straight fight to open his MMA career by scoring a unanimous decision over Yoel Romero in 2019 at UFC 241 putting him as one of the top middleweight prospects in the UFC and setting up a title fight with Israel Adesanya. A TKO loss at UFC 253 for the middleweight strap started a downward spiral for Costa. Starting with the setback to Adesanya he’s dropped four of his last five fights including the last two by UD to Sean Strickland and Robert Whitaker he comes in as a solid +200 underdog. Kopylov is trending in the opposite direction of his opponent with six wins in his last seven fights. Five of those victories were by KO, including his most recent in January when he floored Chris Curtis with a head kick with one second left in the third round. His relentless approach doesn’t bode well for Costa, who absorbs too many opponent significant strikes and shows no signs of improved defense.

UFC 318: Poirier vs. Holloway Prime Picks

Poirier has already beaten Holloway twice showcasing the talent that’s made him one of the most recognized UFC fighters. He does have to overcome the emotion of this being his last bout, but being caged inside an Octagon with a man who wants to destroy you will help change the focus in a hurry. This is a well thought out maneuver by Poirier with his final fight coming in his home state and he’s not going to waste the opportunity getting the hat trick with a decision. In the co-main event I have to back Kopylov by KO. The Russian throws the kitchen sink at opponents and Costa has shown little defense losing four of his last five fights.