Thunder at Bucks Odds & Betting Tips

Though the Thunder remains overwhelming favorites to repeat as NBA champions, there have been a few bumps in the road recently. With one loss through their first 25 games of the season, there was talk of OKC challenging the league record for wins in a season. That has since subsided, but Thunder is the class of the NBA.

It’s been a steady decline since the Bucks won 58 games during the 2022-23 season and they currently find themselves outside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. A win over the NBA’s best would be a much needed jolt of confidence for a team that recently lost back-to-back games by a combined total of 51 points.

Thunder at Bucks Preview

The first of two meetings this season between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks takes place on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET with ESPN providing television coverage.

Public Betting Odds Factors

Entering the week with the best record in the NBA at 35-8, the Thunder have largely been a bust against the NBA spread with a below .500 record. and they’ve been worse on the road going 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games following Saturday’s loss at Miami as a 10.5-point favorite.

The 122-120 loss to the Heat was more disturbing due to the lack of defense. The NBA’s most efficient defensive club allowed Miami to sink 20 3-pointers while OKC allowed more than 120 points in a regulation game for only the fifth time.

OKC withstood the absence of Jalen Williams at the start of the year when he missed 19 games recovering from offseason wrist surgery. They may have to adjust their lineup again after Williams exited the Miami game with a leg injury. The former Santa Clara product is averaging 16.8 points and 5.6 assists in 24 games.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely handle the basketball more if Williams is out, and that’s not a bad thing. SGA dropped 39 against the Heat, his sixth game of 30 or more points in the last 10. The MVP is second to Luka Doncic averaging 31.8 points per game.

The Bucks are among a few teams that haven’t won more than two games in a row. They have put several losing streaks of 3 or more games together, though, including a 3-game slide entering the week.

Since returning from a 3-week absence Giannis Antetokounmpo has failed to deliver. A loss to San Antonio on Thursday left the Bucks just 5-5 in the most recent games he played with only 2 payouts in the last 8 games of that stretch.

Thunder at Bucks Predictions

OKC rarely puts bad streaks together so it’s safe to assume their loss to Miami is out of their system. The Bucks just haven’t been the same and a retooled lineup has failed to inspire them. The perfect storm collides allowing the Thunder to easily win on the road.

With the Thunder scoring the second-most points per game and allowing the fewest, they are clearly a team that excels on both ends of the floor. Their defensive rating of 106.8 points per 100 possessions is a sign they are committed to playing defense and outside of Giannis, the Bucks lack scoring options.

Thunder at Bucks Betting Tips

With 3 losses in 8 games following their setback to Miami, the Thunder are experiencing first world problems. They constantly play against double-digit NBA point spreads and are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 outings.

As good as OKC is on both ends of the floor it’s difficult to play the over/under. And the record reflects as much. The OVER is 22-21 and has cashed in 4 of the last 6 games.

Inconsistency on offense has prevented Milwaukee from stinging wins together. They haven’t scored more than 106 points in 4 straight games going 1-4 SU and ATS in that span.

The Bucks also possess one of the best UNDER percentages in the NBA at 58.5.

Thunder at Bucks Head to Head and Key Stats

OKC swept last season’s series winning both games by at least 16 points and an average of 22.5 points, and the Thunder has won 3 of the last 4 while going 3-1 ATS.