The Texas Longhorns begin defense of their SEC regular season title with a visit to the Swamp to take on the struggling Florida Gators. Both teams are coming off a bye so they should be well rested for only the fifth meeting all-time between the programs. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 4 from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. ESPN will provide television coverage.
Texas at Florida Preview
Recent conference realignment created matchups we’ve rarely seen in college football. The game last year in Austin was the first between the schools in more than 80 years. Now that SEC games are starting the Horns are hopeful Arch Manning is ready to deliver. The over-hyped QB had issues in the first three games completing 55.3 percent with an interception in each game.
Manning and the offense busted out in the most recent game beating Sam Houston State 55-0. Manning was 18 of 21 for 309 yards and three TDs without an interception. Beating Sam Houston, UTEP and San Jose State is a lot different than taking on Florida on the road. In his only game against a P4 school Manning completed 56.7 percent in a loss to Ohio State.
- Texas earned its first payout and went OVER the total for the first time in the Week 4 win over SHSU.
- The Horns rank among the top 5 nationally in total defense (4th), rush defense (3rd) and scoring defense (2nd).
- In their last five road games after a bye the Horns are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS.
- Texas won all three true SEC road games last season en route to the regular season crown and is 6-1 SU in its last 7 such games.
It’s been a rough go for Florida coach Billy Napier, who is among the favorites on the college football betting line to be the next coach fired. After a strong close to the 2024 season with wins over LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State and bowl game thrashing of Tulane, expectations were elevated. However the offense has struggled against FBS foes averaging just 11 points.
There is hope that having Dallas Wilson in the lineup for the first time can boost the sputtering offense. Wilson missed the first part of the season due to injury and his size and speed can stretch the field potentially aiding a group that averages 205.3 passing yards and ranks 115th in the country in total offense.
- QB DJ Lagway has thrown more interceptions (6) than TD passes (5) this season.
- Playing at home following a bye has been good to the Gators. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS since 2012 in those games.
- The Gators are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games.
- Florida has held seven of its last eight opponents to 20 points or less.
Texas at Florida Predictions
All signs point to a low-scoring affair, which is why the total is at 42.5. The teams combined for 66 points in last season’s meeting and there’s talent on the field to surpass the established number. I can see Florida having more success with Wilson adding another dimension to the passing game. And Manning has plenty of playmakers as long as he doesn’t screw things up.
Texas at Florida Betting Tips
- Texas opened at -6.5 in college football odds with a moneyline price of -246.
- The Horns are just 1-3 ATS in their last four true road games.
- Florida is 6-3 SU and ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.
- The total of 42.5 is the lowest for either team this season.
- The Gators cashed the UNDER in all four games this season and in eight straight overall.
Texas at Florida Head to Head and Key Stats
- Last year’s game was the first between the programs since 1940 with Texas winning 49-17.
- There have been four all-time meetings with the Horns going 3-0-1.
- Leading rusher and Gainesville native Jerrick Gibson ran for 100-yards for the first time in Texas’ win a season ago.
- Florida has cashed the UNDER in 7 of its last 10 home games.
