TCU vs North Carolina College Football Odds

NCAAF

It would be inaccurate to say that college football saved its best game for last in Week 1. But it is fair to say that no game will draw as much interest, if not betting action, as the matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and North Carolina Tar Heels.

Former New England Patriots legendary head coach Bill Belichick will make his debut as a college football head coach with the North Carolina Tar Heels against the TCU Horned Frogs.

North Carolina faced its share of criticism for firing Mack Brown, age 73, at the end of a lackluster 2024 season, only to hire Belichick as his replacement despite being the same age. Why will one older man have a better shot at success than the former one? The answer is that North Carolina boosters have ponied up big for the Hoodie.

TCU vs. North Carolina Preview

On Monday, September 1, 2025, the North Carolina Tar Heels will host the TCU Horned Frogs at Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff time is 8 p.m. ET with television coverage on ESPN.

Gambling action will be intense for this matchup, the final game of Week 1. Bill Belichick has made plenty of news, not always for the right reasons, but he is still considered to be the GOAT of NFL coaching. Even the haters will not be able to resist tuning in to see the famed Hoodie in his first college game as a head coach.

The North Carolina offense and its skill corps are terribly unproven. Meanwhile, the defense is almost starting over from scratch. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return. While Belichick is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to develop a solid defense.

The Frogs started 2024 just 3-3 because of a mostly turgid defense. That meant they had gone 8-11 in their past 19 games. But they then won six of their last seven. The offense found a nice cruising altitude, and Andy Avalos' defense went from allowing an average of 37 points over its first five FBS games to just 19 over its last seven.

QB Josh Hoover raised his game with 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns, and a 67% completion rate last year. He threw eight of his 10 interceptions in a glitchy five-game midseason span, but he was mostly safe down the stretch. He'll have an experienced line in front of him.

TCU vs. North Carolina Predictions

In this situation, this is the only game scheduled for Monday. Thus, TCU and North Carolina will have the full attention of the entire football world. The large line move from North Carolina to TCU is an indicator that sharps are not sold on Bill Belichick and North Carolina, at least not this year.

Even as a small favorite, TCU may prove to be the bargain. North Carolina has experienced significant roster fluctuation and undergone a massive transformation in playbooks, lineups, and culture. TCU is the more stable and established program.

TCU Horned Frogs at North Carolina Tar Heels Prime Best Bet: TCU Horned Frogs.

TCU vs. North Carolina Betting Tips

The North Carolina Tar Heels are a 3-point home dog. North Carolina is a +135 home dog. The TCU Horned Frogs are 3-point road favorites and -160 moneyline road favorites. The Tar Heels and Horned Frogs have a total of 58.5.

North Carolina opened as a -2.5-point home favorite, indicating a significant shift towards TCU, with the price moving by 5.5 points.

North Carolina may draw late action from gamblers for Bill Belichick’s first game as head coach. Certainly, the Tar Heels and the Hoodie will draw plenty of casual sector attention that could be reflected in the final price.

Sharps and bargain hunters may stick with TCU as a team that is being ignored by the masses. The casual sector will not want much to do with a TCU team that they know little about and consistently ignore.

TCU vs. North Carolina Head-to-Head and Key Stats

This is the first meeting between TCU and North Carolina since 1997. North Carolina won that game 31-10 at TCU.

The TCU Horned Frogs are an impressive 8-4-1 against the spread as road favorites. TCU went under the total in four of its most recent six games as road chalk.

By contrast, the North Carolina Tar Heels have been a weak value as home dogs. North Carolina covered only six of its most recent 15 games as home dogs. Only five of North Carolina’s last 15 games as home dogs went over the total.