Sunday Night Football: Ravens vs. Falcons Predictions

The return of Michael Penix Jr. has reversed the fortunes of the Atlanta Falcons, who have won two in a row to even their record heading into the Week 5 NFL Sunday Night Football matchup with the Baltimore Ravens. While Atlanta has its starting quarterback the Ravens could be without theirs after Lamar Jackson limped off the field in last week’s win over Tennessee. His status is unknown at this time with Tyler Huntley ready to step in if needed. Early NFL odds have the Falcons as a 3-point favorite.

NFL Sunday Night Football Schedule & Featured Matchup

The NFL Sunday Night Football schedule features an interconference matchup of co-division leaders in the Week 5 edition. After scoring 16 points combined in their first two games, the Falcons have totaled 80 points in wins over Green Bay and New Orleans tying Carolina for first in the NFC South. The Ravens have won two straight by a total of nine points matching the Browns atop the AFC North.

What NFL Teams Are Playing on Sunday Night Football?

• The Ravens and Falcons kick off their Week 5 NFL Sunday Night Football game at 8:20 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.
• The Ravens improved to 3-1 with a narrow 24-18 win over Tennessee but failed to cover the 11.5-point spread for the consecutive game.
• Since Michael Penix Jr. returned in Week 3 the Falcons have averaged 459 yards and 40 points in two wins leveling their record at 2-2. They got the cash in both games.

Key Storylines Entering the Matchup

• The major storyline for this game is the health of Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson, who exited last week’s game and was seen wearing a walking boot. He hasn’t been ruled out, but reports say he has a slim chance of playing against Atlanta.
• Since the 2019 season the Ravens are only 6-11 without Jackson as their starter averaging nearly half as many points as they do with him as the starter.

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Sunday Night Football Predictions & Game Analysis

The early betting markets for the Week 5 Sunday Night Football clash between Baltimore and Atlanta swung heavily in favor of the Falcons. The Ravens originally opened as a slight road favorite, but injury updates on Lamar Jackson and Atlanta’s recent play have flipped the script with the home team now positioned as a 3-point favorite. A run heavy attack on both sides makes the UNDER a popular NFL Sunday Night Football pick.

Predicted Winner

• Atlanta’s momentum and Baltimore’s injury concerns have positioned the Falcons as the winner in Sunday Night Football predictions.
• Both teams rank among the top 5 in rushing offense keeping the ball on the ground with clock-churning plays. That game plan gives value to the UNDER 44 points.

Key Matchups That Could Decide the Game

• To shield backup QB Tyler Huntley, the Ravens will rely on Derrick Henry and the ground game to wear out Atlanta’s defenders. 
• If the Falcons can stop Baltimore runs on early downs it forces them into unfavorable passing situations, which is exactly where the pass rush wants them.
• Baltimore’s defense faces a conundrum against a suddenly balanced Falcons attack. Michael Penix Jr. has opened up the passing game and Bijan Robinson leads the NFL in scrimmage yards.

Potential Upset Scenario

• The Ravens are in the unusual position of being an underdog with the injury to Lamar Jackson shifting the odds in Atlanta’s favor. If backup Tyler Huntley plays a strong game and doesn’t turn the ball over, Baltimore is in position for the upset.
• Derrick Henry is the biggest catalyst on offense for a Ravens NFL Sunday Night Football prediction upset. 
• Getting Trey Hendrickson back on defense will help contain Atlanta’s attack, putting the Ravens in position to get the outright victory.

Sunday Night Football Odds & Betting Preview

This matchup is a good example of how Sunday Night Football odds shift due to injuries. The Ravens were originally a 3-point favorite until Lamar Jackson pulled up lame in last week’s game. The likelihood of him playing is slim and the resurgent Falcons have emerged as a field goal favorite on the NFL betting line.

How the Betting Lines Compare

• The injury to Lamar Jackson caused the spread to jump the fence with as much as a 6-point swing. Baltimore moved from a 3-point favorite to a 3-point (+102) road underdog.
• The Falcons have been crushing it since Michael Penix Jr. returned to the lineup. They won each of their last two games outright by 21 points and went OVER the closing total in both.
• With the Ravens’ offense impacted by the loss of Jackson, the Sunday Night Football odds total dropped several points to 44.

Factors That Could Impact the Odds

• We already witnessed the biggest factor that shifted NFL odds for this game. With Lamar Jackson unlikely to play the Falcons moved to a 3-point home favorite.
• Recent play is valued in betting markets and the Falcons have been dominant with two straight blowout wins. Bookmakers are respecting Atlanta’s home field advantage.
• Both teams are run-heavy with two premier backs – Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson – going against each other. Sharp money could drive the total even lower.

Best Bets for Sunday Night Football

Week 5 Sunday Night Football best bets center on the massive tactical shifts forced by injury updates. Nothing forces NFL odds to shift quicker than an injury to a star player and the loss of Lamar Jackson has put the Falcons as a 3-point favorite.

Betting Markets Worth Considering

• Based on the current heater the Falcons are on and the injury to Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Atlanta is the consensus Sunday Night Football best bet to cover the spread.
• The Ravens will attempt to protect their backup QB with a heavy dose of Derrick Henry. The NFL’s fourth leading rushing has had at least 23 carries in three games and will get a high-volume of touches to go OVER his total rush attempts.

Value Opportunities Before Kickoff

• Getting the Ravens +3 is a big overreaction for a team that’s built on structure and a potent ground game. 
• The game total plummeted to 44 points with news of Lamar Jackson’s injury with bettors assuming the Ravens won’t be able to score. Atlanta’s offense is humming and will carry the scoring load against a deflated total.

Final Sunday Night Football Pick & Takeaways

The final analytical pick for the Week 5 NFL Sunday Night Football interconference clash between the Ravens and Falcons is backing the home team minus the points in NFL odds. The structure of Baltimore’s offense changes without Lamar Jackson and Atlanta’s recent surge puts the Falcons as the Sunday Night Football score prediction winner.

Biggest Factors to Watch

• The Ravens hand the offense to backup Tyler Huntley. While Huntley is entirely capable, the offense becomes less lethal without Jackson’s game-breaking speed and elusiveness.
• Can the Falcons continue their offensive momentum gained over the last two games following the return of Michael Penix Jr.? The team erupted for 45 points against the Saints behind Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
• Baltimore will try to establish the ground game leaning on Derrick Henry to control the clock in a typical Ravens type of game.

Final Prediction Before Kickoff

• The Ravens haven’t been as stout defensively as we’ve seen in the past giving Atlanta windows to score. And Baltimore won’t be as inept offensively as most expect since Huntley is experienced in the system.
• The Sunday Night Football score prediction has this game going OVER the deflated total in a close Atlanta win, 27-22.