Phillies vs Padres – Top Betting Tips & Preview

The final weekend of play before the MLB All-Star break has a couple of National League playoff contenders battling in America’s Finest City. Struggling to score runs and consistently win games ahead of the break you can expect A.J. Preller to be active ahead of the deadline. The San Diego Padres started the year hot but have since cooled and currently find themselves outside the wild card race. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies took advantage of a major slump by the Mets to take over first place in the NL East; though it looks like that will be a race to the end of the season.

Phillies vs. Padres Game Preview

The NL matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres will take place on Saturday, July 12, 2025 from Petco Park in San Diego, CA. First pitch is slated for 7:35 p.m. ET with television coverage on FOX.

The Phillies overcame a horrible stretch of baseball in late May-early June where they lost nine of 10 games and their grip on first place in their division. Well, a lot can happen over the course of a 162-game season and it has already for the Phils. They have since rebounded and following Wednesday’s 13-0 rout of San Francisco hold a slim lead in the NL East. They are also tied with Toronto for the fifth-best record in the majors winning 58.1 percent of their games. The Phils have been solid all season ranking among the top 10 in runs/game and batting average while also boasting one of the best staff ERA’s in the majors. And they are scheduled to send ace Zach Wheeler to the hill on Saturday. In 18 starts Wheeler is 9-3 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The Phillies are 13-5 in games started by Wheeler cashing the UNDER in each of the last three.

San Diego’s inability to score was on full display just over a week ago when they were blanked 4-0 by Wheeler and the Phillies in Philadelphia. The Pads dropped Wednesday’s series finale to Arizona, 8-2, producing fewer than four runs for the ninth time in their last 13 games. Just about two months ago the Padres were among the best in the majors with a team batting average over .260. The collective slump by stars Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts has them floundering. San Diego’s team average has dropped to .244 after collecting just four hits in Wednesday’s game. A lack of power has them averaging just over four runs per game. As a team the Pads have 78 home runs.

Pitching, mainly their bullpen, has allowed the Padres to stay within striking distance of a wild card. Collectively relievers have the second-best ERA in the majors. The club should get a boost from the return of Saturday’s scheduled starter Yu Darvish to the rotation. Making his first start of the season Monday against the Dbacks, Darvish gave up three hits and two runs over 3.2 frames taking the loss in a 6-3 setback. However, his pitches were alive with five strikeouts and he should be stretched out longer.

Phillies vs. Padres Predictions

With the teams sharing the fifth-highest under percentage in the majors and with two strong starters scheduled to take the bump, there’s a real good chance this game ends below the closing total on the MLB odds. Cashing the UNDER in 57.3 percent of their games overall, that number jumps to almost 60 percent when the Padres are playing at home. In their last 13 games at Petco the Pads played below the total in eight of them. And Wheeler has had all kinds of success against San Diego during his career going 5-1 with a miniscule 1.81 ERA in 10 starts.

Phillies vs. Padres Head-to-Head and Key Stats

The teams met in Philadelphia just over a week ago with the Phils winning two of three games outscoring the Pads 13-7 with two of the games cashing the UNDER. San Diego’s lone victory was in the middle game of the set and first of a doubleheader, 6-3, on July 2 with three of their runs scored on bases loaded walks. Over the three games the Padres managed just 18 hits and hit .185. The Phillies have gotten the cash in eight of the last 10 meetings, including a three-game sweep when the clubs played in San Diego last season.

Phillies vs. Padres Betting Tips

I don’t have a lot of faith in San Diego right now with their recent struggles dropping them out of the playoff picture. However, the Padres do play well at home to make things interesting. Wheeler is a front runner for the NL Cy Young and stifled San Diego over a week ago fanning 10 in eight shutout frames and he gives Philly the edge in this matchup.