Penn State at Ohio State – Expert Picks & Odds

Pulling themselves out of a deep slump won’t be easy for the Penn State Nittany Lions, who take a four-game losing streak into their Week 10 matchup with the undefeated and No. 1 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. The Big Ten contest takes place on Saturday, November 1 from Ohio Stadium in Columbus at 12 p.m. ET and will be televised on FOX.

Penn State at Ohio State Preview

Before the season started the Nittany Lions were ranked No. 2 in the country and a trendy pick to win the national championship. They opened the season with three straight wins outscoring opponents 132-17. An overtime loss to Oregon started an unprecedented collapse that cost coach James Franklin his job and has PSU as one of four winless teams in the conference.

The inability of Penn State under Franklin to beat top 10 opponents started the free fall. Oregon was ranked No. 6 with PSU falling to 4-21 overall against top 10 foes. Losses to then-winless UCLA and unranked Northwestern continued the demise. PSU lost both as a 20+-point favorite. The losing streak extended with a 25-24 loss to Iowa in Week 8, but PSU stayed within the 3-point college football odds for their first payout of the season.

Penn State has lost four games in a row for the first time since losing the first five games of the 2020 season.
In his first career start as the replacement for injured Drew Allar, Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 93 yards with two interceptions in a 25-24 loss to Iowa.
The Nittany Lions have lost five straight games when a road underdog, including two at OSU.
Kaytron Allen is the fifth-leading rusher in the Big Ten and he’s scored five rushing TDs in the last three games.

Bolstered by the best defense in the country, the Buckeyes have cruised to a perfect 7-0 start. OSU has posted two shutouts, held six opponents to nine points or less and has outscored opponents by an average of 30.5 points. It’s led to a lot of success on the field and at the betting window. Ohio State is 6-0-1 ATS this season and 10-0-1 ATS dating back to last season’s national championship run.

Julian Sayin is creating a new category for QBs. Completing 70 percent of your passes is considered outstanding and Sayin tops the country with an 80 percent rate. He’s completed 156 of 195 for 1,872 yards and 19 TDs for an OSU offense that ranks 22nd nationally scoring 36.4 points per game.

The Buckeyes have covered college football point spreads of 55.5, 28, 25 and 23.5 points going 6-0-1 ATS this season.
OSU is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games when favored by 20 points or more.
The Buckeyes have held their last 13 regular season opponents to 17 points or less and give up an average of 5.9 points this season.

Penn State at Ohio State Predictions

I don’t anticipate Penn State doing much offensively with a freshman QB making his second career start against a ruthless defense. The Buckeyes lead the nation in third-down defense, red zone defense, and of course fewest points allowed. Points will be tough to come by making the UNDER on Penn State’s point total and a cover for the home-standing Buckeyes favorable bets.

Penn State at Ohio State Betting Tips

The Buckeyes opened as a 20-point favorite with a massive moneyline price of -1414.
Penn State went from being a favorite of more than 20 points in five of their first six games to being a 20-point dog for the first time since the 2019 season when they covered in a 28-17 loss to OSU.
The Nittany Lions are +900 on the moneyline.
The total of 43.5 is the lowest in a game between these teams since the 2011 season.
The teams have cashed the UNDER in two straight matchups and in five of the last seven with a push.

Penn State at Ohio State Head to Head and Key Stats

Ohio State has won eight in a row and 12 of the last 13 meetings going 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS in the last six home games.
The teams have played UNDER the total in the last three games and in four of the last five at OSU.
Penn State has lost 12 consecutive games to Big Ten teams ranked in the top 10.