Oregon at Penn State Odds & Expert Betting Tips

Three of the top 6 teams in the most recent AP Top 25 poll reside in the Big Ten. Two of them square off in a monumental conference clash when the No. 6 Oregon Ducks visit the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions in a Big Ten title game rematch. The teams have combined to go 7-0 outscoring their opponents by an average of more than 40 points. NBC will televise the game that starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 27 from Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA.

Oregon at Penn State Preview

The list of opponents isn’t scary, but how the Ducks manhandled each one of them certainly was. They beat FCS runner-up Montana State in their opener then knocked off Oklahoma State, Northwestern and Oregon State, teams that have combined to go 0-8 against FBS opponents, allowing a total of 24 points in those three contests.

With their balanced attack it’s tough to defend the Ducks. They haven’t had to throw the ball because they’ve been effective on the ground averaging more than 255 yards a game. Three players have amassed more than 155 rushing yards led by Jayden Limar with 215 and 6.7 yards per carry. When they do throw the ball Dante Moore has been efficient completing nearly 75 percent for 962 yards and 11 TDs.

The Ducks have not allowed more than 14 points in a game and rank 9th nationally in scoring defense.
OU is 7th nationally averaging 6.72 yards per rush attempt.
Oregon is perfect in 20 red zone trips scoring 16 TDs and 4 field goals.
In their last eight true road games the Ducks are 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS.

Penn State has taken advantage of a soft early schedule beating Nevada, FIU and Villanova as a favorite of at least 42-points on the college football betting line. The Lions failed to cover in any of those games mainly because they called off the dogs in the second half of blowout wins. Still, they’re fifth in the Big Ten in scoring with an average of 44 points.

Defense has been the key in Happy Valley. Three FBS teams allow an average of fewer than 6 points with PSU among them, though they’re not even the best in the Big Ten. PSU has allowed two TDs and a total of 17 points, but they haven’t faced an offense averaging more than 18 points per game.

Under coach James Franklin PSU is 4-20 against top 10 opponents.
The Lions didn’t play last week and they are 3-1 SU and against the college football odds in their last four at home following a bye.
Between them Kayton Allen and Nicholas Singleton have rushed for 451 yards and 8 TDs. They each rushed for more than 100 yards in last season’s Big Ten title game.
In their last 9 home games when favored by 7-points or less, the Lions are 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS

Oregon at Penn State Predictions

This is the first real test for both teams so don’t read too much into the season stats, which were bolstered against weak competition. Historically Penn State has had a strong defense and the Ducks have gotten a lot better under Dan Lanning. The Nittany Lions will run the ball behind a strong duo keeping the final score UNDER the total.

Oregon at Penn State Betting Tips

Penn State is an early 4-point favorite with a moneyline price of -177
The Ducks haven’t been a road dog since Week 5 of the 2023 season covering the 3.5-point line in a 38-35 loss to Washington.
OU is +159 on the moneyline.
The total hit the board at 52.5.
Oregon’s last 7 games closed with a total of at least 50 with the OVER going 5-2.
The UNDER is 6-3 in PSU’s last 9 home games.

Oregon at Penn State Head to Head and Key Stats

The teams played for the first time in 30 years in last season’s Big Ten championship.
Oregon won the conference title with a 45-37 win covering the 3-point spread and cashing the OVER of 51. The teams combined for 984 total yards.
Prior to that, the teams played in the 1995 Rose Bowl with Penn State winning 38-20.
Drew Allar threw 3 TD passes and was intercepted twice in last year’s game.