Odds to Win NFC South: Odds, Team Preview & Predictions

For the second time in the last four seasons the NFC South winner had a losing record. Last year the Carolina Panthers ended Tampa Bay’s run of four straight division crowns winning a tiebreaker scenario over the Bucs and Atlanta Falcons after they all finished 8-9. Carolina won the games it needed to win going 3-1 in head-to-heads with the Bucs and Falcons. 

In what is a division of mediocrity, the Buccaneers surfaced as the team to beat with division odds slightly better than those of the New Orleans Saints. The defending NFC South champion Panthers and the Falcons make up the bottom half of the division, though the crown is up for grabs since over the last four years the NFC South winner hasn’t won more than 10 games.

NFC South Division Overview

The bar isn’t very high in the NFC South and division futures odds suggest it’s a wide-open race. Despite roster questions, Baker Mayfield feeling disrespected by management and Vita Vea requesting a trade, the Buccaneers opened as the favorite, mainly because someone had to. The Bucs have had the most success recently and are the only NFC South team in the last two seasons to have a winning record.

An afterthought after starting last season with eight losses in nine games, the Saints were the hottest NFC South team down the stretch winning five of their last eight games, including a pair of victories over eventual division winner Carolina. The play of Rookie of the Year runner-up Tyler Shough gives New Orleans momentum heading into the preseason and has them positioned second on the division odds in a tightly-clustered grouping.

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NFC South Teams

The NFC South was created when the NFL realigned in 2002 and has had the same four members. Each of those four members has won at least four NFC South titles making it the only division to hold that distinction.

• Atlanta Falcons
• Carolina Panthers
• New Orleans Saints
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why the NFC South Race Matters

• In seven of the last eight seasons the NFC South has sent one team to the playoffs. 
• Winning the division guarantees a spot and a first round home game regardless of the team’s record.
• Last year eight teams finished with a better record in the conference than the NFC South champion Panthers. Only seven qualify for the postseason.
• As a one-team division the last several years, winning the NFC South is more important than probably any other division.

NFC South Odds to Win the Division

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the shortest odds to win the NFC South, holding a short lead over the rest of the contenders in what is anticipated to be a competitive and tightly-bunched division. Carolina didn’t overwhelm anyone last year on the way to its first division title in a decade and first playoff appearance in six years. There is a caveat, though. The Panthers extended their streak of consecutive losing seasons to eight and landed as the third favorite in the division futures odds to repeat.

Current Odds to Win NFC South

I’d like to see which Tampa Bay club shows up this season. The Bucs looked like one of the best teams in the NFL winning five of their first six games last season, including back-to-back wins over San Francisco and Super Bowl champion Seattle. It fell apart with Tampa losing seven of eight near the end of the season. Still, the Bucs are viewed as the team to beat in the congested NFC South odds race.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
• New Orleans Saints +264
• Carolina Panthers +306
• Atlanta Falcons +366

NFC South Odds Movement

• A bounce back season is expected from Tampa Bay after they blew a chance to win the NFC South with a late season collapse.
• Betting markets are high on the Saints after their late-season surge and development of Tyler Shough putting them with the second shortest odds to win the NFC South.
• The Falcons tied for the NFC South lead last year losing out in a tiebreaker. They are the division longshot entering training camp.

NFC South Standings and Recent Results

Last season’s NFC South standings looked strange with no team posting a winning record. It’s actually not uncommon in this division since it happened for the second time in four years and for the third time in the last 12 seasons. Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta all finished tied for first at 8-9 with the Saints going 6-11. New Orleans finished last for the second straight season.

Through a three-team tiebreaker the Panthers won the NFC South for the first time in 10 years, sixth time overall and second when finishing with a losing record. In 2014 Carolina had the worst record by a division winner at 7-8-1 then followed that in 2015 going 15-1. Last year was also the fifth straight where only one NFC South team qualified for the playoffs.

Latest NFC South Standings

• You don’t have to mention the record just say the Carolina Panthers are the defending NFC South champion. 
• Carolina won the three-team tiebreaker by going 3-1 in head-to-head matchups with Tampa Bay and Atlanta, who each split the four games.
• Three of the five division winners with a losing record in modern NFL history have come from the NFC South with Carolina the only club to do it twice.

What the NFC South Standings Tell Us

• The NFC South standings tell us the division is defined by parity and is frequently positioned as the weakest division in the NFL.
• With no NFC South team winning more than 10 games in the last four seasons, the division is without a dominant team leaving it extremely vulnerable.
• With NFC South teams tightly packed it does create some intense moments when teams meet late in the season.

NFC South Team-by-Team Breakdown

Sports are cyclical and at a point in the near future the NFC South will need to be reckoned with. However, I’m not sure this season is the time. Tampa Bay enters the season looking for redemption after a late-season collapse cost them the division and ended a streak of four straight NFC South titles. Baker Mayfield and the offense struggled last season producing 20 points or less in six of their last seven games. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson brings a system familiar to Mayfield looking to spark the group.

Carolina will attempt to build off its NFC South title from a season ago and look for continued improvement from former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. Setting career-highs in nearly every statistical passing category, Young took a huge leap in his play. Not as heralded as Young, Tyler Shough is just as important to the Saints, who were the best NFC South team at the close of last season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division Outlook

The Buccaneers have a retooled roster as they look to return to the top of the NFC South. A late-season collapse and 8-9 record forced the team to make significant changes, including the hiring of new OC Zac Taylor. The offense regressed from a top 5 unit the season before and Baker Mayfield is embroiled in a preseason contract dispute. The Bucs will need to pick up the pace offensively to support a defense that is projected to have five new starters.

New Orleans Saints Division Outlook

The Saints were the hottest team in the NFC South at the end of last season winning four in a row and closing with five wins in their final eight games. The team stayed the course after dropping eight of nine and will look to Tyler Shough to continue his development. A strong close elevated Shough to the QB1 role. Over the last five games he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes with a 99.1 passer rating. The Saints maintained their defensive intensity finishing among the top 10 in total defense.

Carolina Panthers Division Outlook

They won the division but another losing record forced the Panthers to make changes to their roster. The club added a mix of high-profile defenders and youth in the trenches in an effort to defend the NFC South title and also secure the team’s first winning season since 2017. Bryce Young looked like the No. 1 overall pick with the best season of his young career. Young had career-highs in passing yards, TDs and completion percentage while orchestrating four fourth quarter comebacks, surpassing his total from the previous two seasons.

Atlanta Falcons Division Outlook

The Falcons finished tied for first in the NFC South last year, but you might not know it. They aren’t getting much respect boasting the longest NFC South odds. It could be that after a second straight 8-9 season the organization cleaned house. New head coach Kevin Stefanski had some success with Cleveland and is accustomed to working with an uncertain QB situation. Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from surgery and Tua Tagovailoa has had camp issues. Whoever takes the job has weapons at his disposal led by Bijan Robinson.

NFC South Stats to Know

The NFC South predictions are anyone’s guess. The division is completely up for grabs and every club had significant roster turnover and coaching staff shakeups. The NFC South standings will be determined by which team acclimates faster to its new identity. Winning games within the division will likely be a determining factor. All four teams went 3-3 in division matchups last season.

Known for its fast-paced, high-scoring offenses in previous years, the NFC South experienced a downturn last season. New Orleans and Carolina averaged less than 20 points per game and Tampa Bay was the only NFC South team to score more than 21 points per outing. Every team invested in upgrading their offense looking to alter that trend.

Key Offensive Stats

• While he put up career-best numbers in several passing categories, Bryce Young struggled to get the football downfield ranking near the bottom of the NFL in completed air yards per pass.
• Bijan Robinson earned his payday leading the NFL in scrimmage yards a season ago with 2,298 combined rushing and receiving yards.
• Carolina and New Orleans finished near the bottom of the NFL averaging less than 18.5 points per game.

Key Defensive Stats

• Led by 10.5 sacks from James Pearce, the Falcons led the NFC South and finished second in the NFL with 57 sacks.
• Carolina conceded 20 rushing TDs prompting the signings of Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd to address the issue.
• Tampa Bay forced 23 turnovers and led the NFC South stats with a plus-7 turnover differential.

NFC South Predictions

I think a safe NFC South prediction is another close race with multiple teams vying for the title. At this point no team has separated from the pack, but I could see the Buccaneers falling behind. There is little margin for error and disrupting team chemistry with contract demands and trade requests is damaging. They have the longest NFC South odds, but the Falcons are poised to make a leap under former Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski.

Best Bet to Win NFC South

• The Saints represent the best value bet to win the NFC South with a far better risk-to-reward profile based on late season momentum.
• Tyler Shough developed into a NFL starter and the team surrounded him with support to complement a top 10 defense.
• New Orleans has the second-easiest strength of schedule and they are poised to take advantage of it.

NFC South Sleeper Pick

• There are a lot of “ifs” surrounding the Falcons, but they offer the highest payout in a division they can win.
• If Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy on his one-year deal and if Kevin Stefanski flawlessly installs his playbook, the Atlanta offense will be terrifying.
• Carolina is a safer sleeper pick. The Panthers won the NFC South last year but are being heavily discounted.

NFC South Team to Avoid

NFC South odds suggest there is no team to avoid with the four clubs tightly-packed together. The one team that stands out, though, is Tampa Bay. With the shortest odds to win the NFC South, the Bucs are overvalued as they deal with roster changes and internal conflict.

Factors That Could Decide the NFC South

Three crucial factors stand out that could decide the NFC South division race. With teams overhauling their coaching staffs, how teams and players react to a new voice and scheme will play a role. A few players have already been shelved with major injuries making how teams overcome those losses a key. We also have high-profile roster additions around the NFC South like Tua in Atlanta. How those players adapt to their new surroundings is critical to their team’s success.

Quarterback Play

• The quarterback situation in the NFC South is likely the most volatile in the NFL. Baker Mayfield has provided the most stable play giving the Bucs an overall edge.
• How Bryce Young and Tyler Shough continue to develop will determine the trajectory of the Panthers and Saints.
• The Falcons moved on from Kirk Cousins bringing in Tua Tagovailoa on a one-year bridge deal while Michael Penix Jr. recovers. 

Strength of Schedule

• The Saints have a chance to upend the NFC South playing the easiest schedule in the division, and second easiest in the NFL based on opponents’ winning percentage from last season.
• Due to their first place finish the Panthers have a difficult task of playing the 10th most difficult schedule.
• Atlanta and Tampa Bay fall in the easy to moderate category for their season schedules.