Odds to Win NFC North: Betting Odds, Team Preview & Predictions

The Detroit Lions missed the playoffs last season but opened as the preseason betting favorite to win the tightly packed NFC North. The only division in the NFL in which all four teams posted a winning record is expected to be another dog fight with the defending division champion Chicago Bears listed as the third favorite in early NFL division futures.

The Bears went from worst to first last year claiming their first NFC North title since 2018 by going 11-6. That came after a season in which the Bears endured a 10-game losing streak and finished 5-12. The team made a move that turned out to be genius, hiring Detroit’s offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as head coach. The offense turned around and the Bears surprised a lot of folks, though they are positioned this season as the third favorite in division odds.

NFC North Division Overview

It’s hard to claim there’s another division in the NFL stronger from top to bottom than the NFC North. Known as the NFC Central from the AFL/NFL merger in 1970 until realignment in 2002, last year was the first time every team had a winning record. In fact, according to our research, every team in a division finishing above .500 has occurred just one other time. In 2023 every AFC North team finished with a winning record.

The odds of that happening again are long, but there’s no denying how competitive NFC North teams are. Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota all won nine games and every team in the division had a positive point differential. A disappointing finish cost the Lions, who lost three straight late in the season to fall off the pace. They were aggressive in the offseason and reestablished as the division odds favorite.

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NFC North Teams

The current NFC North teams were part of the NFL’s Central Division when the league split into four divisions in 1967 and remained grouped after the 1970 merger. Known for its physical style of play, the NFC North is nicknamed the “Black and Blue Division.”

• Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions
• Green Bay Packers
• Minnesota Vikings

Why the NFC North Race Matters

• The NFC North division is widely regarded as the deepest and most competitive in the NFL for the 2026 season.
• The winner of the NFC North is guaranteed a top-four seed in the playoffs and a first-round home game if that team doesn’t finish as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
• With three teams projected to compete for double-digit wins, head-to-head tiebreakers could decide not just the NFC North winner but multiple NFC Wild Cards.

NFC North Odds to Win the Division

The division futures odds indicate just how tight the experts predict the NFC North will be. With the easiest strength of schedule in the division, the Lions are projected to rebound from a sub-par 9-8 season and boast the shortest odds to win the NFC North. Despite winning the division last year, the market expects slight regression for the Bears, who have a number of difficult road games on their slate.

Current Odds to Win NFC North

Naming the backup QBs for the top three teams in the NFC North is an exercise. That’s why the long term health of the starters is important in the division odds race. The margin between the Lions (10.5), Packers (9.5) and Bears (9.5) in the predictive wins model is thin with any time loss to injury having an impact.

• Detroit Lions +150
• Green Bay Packers +280
• Chicago Bears +300
• Minnesota Vikings +410

NFC North Odds Movement

• For the most part the NFC North odds have remained stable entering the training camp cycle.
• Due to a favorable scheduling path, the Lions have seen the most significant line movement with their odds shortening after hitting the board at around +180.
• Green Bay’s betting odds climbed slightly with bettors fading the Packers over a new defensive scheme under coordinator Jonathan Gannon.

NFC North Standings and Recent Results

The Bears emerged from a strong group of teams to finish first in the NFC North standings for the first time in seven years with an 11-6 record. It was the fewest wins by a division champion since the Packers went 10-6 in 2016. There was a reason for the low win total; the division was the best in the NFL with every team posting a winning record.

NFC North teams beat on each other during the 2025 season with the first-place Bears going just 2-4 in division matchups. Green Bay and Minnesota had the best inter-division records, each going 4-2. For just the second time since the 1970 merger a division had every team finish the regular season with a winning record.

Latest NFC North Standings

• Every NFC North team finished last season with at least nine wins, marking the second time since the AFL/NFL merger that every NFL division member had a winning record.
• Chicago became the latest team to go from worst to first winning the NFC North for the first time since 2018 with a record of 11-6. They won only five games during the 2024 season.
• Only two wins separated the four clubs in the NFC North standings showing how closely matched the division was.

What the NFC North Standings Tell Us

• The NFC North standings showed a highly competitive race where every team won at least nine games and finished the season with a winning record.
• From top to bottom the NFC North is the toughest division in the NFL.
• All four NFC North teams finished the regular season with a positive point differential with the Bears shifting the balance of power away from Detroit and Green Bay.

NFC North Team-by-Team Breakdown

NFC North teams accomplished a rare feat last season with all four clubs posting a winning record. That happened just once previously since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger and it was just a few years ago. In 2023 every member of the AFC North finished above .500. Last season the NFC North displayed the level of parity the NFL is striving for with the four teams separated by just two wins.

Entering the 2026 preseason every team appears to be just as strong with several of the top quarterbacks in the league. The Bears surged to the NFC North title with a six-game improvement under Ben Johnson, who transformed 2024 first overall draft pick Caleb Williams. The first overall pick in 2016, Jared Goff leads a potent Detroit offense, and the Vikings added 2019 first overall draft pick Kyler Murray to their roster. 

Detroit Lions Division Outlook

The Lions appeared on their way to a third straight playoff appearance, something that’s happened just twice previously in the history of the franchise. But a three-game skid late in the season derailed those plans and the club is looking to regain the swagger it had when going 27-7 in the previous two seasons combined. Offensively the Lions are locked in boasting a top 5 unit in yards and points in each of the last four years.

Green Bay Packers Division Outlook

The last time the Packers were on the field they blew an 18-point lead in a wild card loss to NFC North rival Chicago. It was the team’s fifth straight setback overall sparking a massive offseason spending spree and a change at defensive coordinator. The Packers made a splash last season acquiring Micah Parsons, but a knee injury put him on the shelf and Parsons isn’t expected back until the middle of the season. 

Chicago Bears Division Outlook

Maintaining success in the NFL is much harder than having a successful season. After seven consecutive losing campaigns the Bears won 11 games and the NFC North last year under first-year coach Ben Johnson. Under Johnson’s tutelage, Caleb Williams developed into a top QB setting a Chicago franchise record with 3,942 passing yards as the Bears ranked among the top 10 in scoring and total offense in the same season for the first time since 2013. The Bears addressed holes on a defense that ranked in the bottom third in yards and points allowed.

Minnesota Vikings Division Outlook

With the addition of Kyler Murray to stabilize a shaky quarterback room, another former first overall draft pick joins the NFC North ranks. As of this writing Murray hasn’t been named the starter, but all signs point in that direction. Murray would be the fourth different starter in as many seasons. The Vikings need offensive improvement after ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in total offense in the NFL a season ago. Considering the talent on that side of the football the team should have better numbers.

NFC North Stats to Know

The “Black and Blue” nickname didn’t come from teams tossing the ball all over the yard. Maybe the NFC North has caught up with the rest of the NFL in terms of offensive output. NFC North stats had three QBs among the top 13 in passing yards, the only division to do that. No quarterback in the history of the Bears threw for more yards in a single season than Caleb Williams did in 2025 and Jared Goff had the second-most passing yards in the NFL behind only MVP Matthew Stafford.

The level of parity in the NFC North standings last season was unmatched. The teams were separated by only two wins with the Bears winning their first division title in seven years. And for just the second time since the 1970 merger, every team had a winning record joining the 2023 AFC North.

Key Offensive Stats

The Lions have put together an offensive juggernaut finishing among the top 5 in the NFL in scoring and total yards in each of the past four seasons.

Caleb Williams, Jordan Love and Jared Goff all finished among the top 7 in lowest interception percentage.

Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs led the NFC North and placed fifth in the NFL with 1,839 scrimmage yards and had the second-most combined TDs with 18.

Key Defensive Stats

• The Bears led the NFL with 23 interceptions, 33 takeaways and a plus-22 turnover margin.
• Aidan Hutchinson was a disruptor for the Lions amassing 14.5 sacks, 35 QB hits, 4 forced fumbles and an interception.
• Jack Campbell was named All-Pro after finishing second in the NFL with 176 total tackles.

NFC North Predictions

We can go out on a limb with our NFC North predictions and say the division race is going to be tight with every team capable of winning the division if things go right. I’m leaning toward a bounce back year from the Lions, who possess incredible talent on both sides of the football. They also have the shortest odds to win the NFC North. Minnesota carries the highest variance.

Best Bet to Win NFC North

• Given their schedule advantage and expected positive regression, the Lions have emerged as the best bet to win the NFC North.
• Detroit suffered through injury waves in 2025 and underperformed in close one-score games making them a prime bounce back candidate.
• The price might scare some folks away with Green Bay and Chicago offering value if you fade the favorite.

NFC North Sleeper Pick

• The Vikings are flagged as the sleeper pick to win the NFC North offering high statistical upside and the longest NFC North odds.
• Despite going 9-8 last season the Vikings allowed the fewest points in the division and ranked third in the NFL in yards per play.
• If Kyler Murray can stabilize the QB situation the Vikings can steal the division.

NFC North Team to Avoid

• Due to looming regression factors, projection models are fading the defending NFC North champions.
• The Bears relied heavily on the best turnover differential in the NFL and elite red zone defense to win close games. It’s unlikely they have the same luck against a first-place schedule.

Factors That Could Decide the NFC North

Experts have identified several critical factors that could potentially determine NFC North predictions. The Bears won last season even though Caleb Williams struggled with accuracy and depth-of-target metrics late in the season. His continued development in the second season in Ben Johnson’s system is a huge factor. Schedule disparities and injury recoveries by key defenders are other crucial areas.

Quarterback Play

• The NFC North features perhaps the most intriguing and deep group of quarterbacks in the NFL.
• With Kyler Murray expected to start for Minnesota, the NFC North will have three former No. 1 overall draft picks behind center in the 2026 season.
• Jared Goff is the anchor of the most stable offense in the NFC North throwing for more than 4,300 yards in each of the last four campaigns.

Strength of Schedule

• The NFC North faces a huge scheduling imbalance this season based on opponents’ results from a season ago.
• Chicago has the hardest slate in the NFL with opponents compiling a .550 win percentage last season. The Lions enjoy the easiest path to division success against the sixth-easiest schedule.
• Since every NFC North team finished last season with a winning record, the division as a whole has a high strength of schedule floor.