Odds to Win AFC West: Odds and Betting Preview

Last season the Denver Broncos tied for the best record in the NFL and advanced to the AFC Championship game behind a strong defense and young quarterback. You might think that would be enough to position them as the favorite to repeat as champion of the AFC West. If you thought that you’d be wrong.

The dominant team in the AFC West for more than a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs had a down season winning just six games. They also lost Patrick Mahomes to injury late in the year. With Mahomes expected back for the start of the new campaign, the Chiefs are positioned as the NFL betting favorite to return to the top of the AFC West standings with the Los Angeles Chargers and Broncos close behind.

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AFC West Division Overview

The AFC West division might be the toughest in the National Football League with three teams among the top 12 favorites on the Super Bowl futures odds list. The Broncos won 14 games last season and are the third favorite in the division ahead of only the Raiders. How the AFC West shapes up will be determined by the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City saw its run of nine straight AFC West titles and 10 straight playoff appearances end last season and they’re eager to bounce back.

Continued progressing by the Broncos under coach Sean Payton just about topped out with 14 wins and the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season. Most of the starters from a defense that led the NFL in sacks and allowed the third-fewest points are back. However, QB Bo Nix underwent ankle surgery in the offseason leaving question marks for a unit that averaged less than 24 points per game and impacting their AFC West odds.

AFC West Teams

Though several of the teams have relocated, the division remains intact from the original group that started in the AFL in 1960. Teams have played each other every year since 1960 creating some of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL.

• Denver Broncos
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Chargers

Why the AFC West Race Matters

• The existing rivalries in the AFC West that have been in place for more than 60 years making the race matter a little more than any other division in football.
• Winning a tough AFC West guarantees a team a top-four seed in the playoffs and a first round home game, if it doesn’t secure the No. 1 overall seed.
• Beating other AFC West teams improves your chances of reaching the playoffs while impacting those of your opponent.

AFC West Odds to Win the Division

Their long run of success has given the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt in the AFC West odds. You can’t completely discount a team that won 10 or more games in 10 straight seasons reaching the playoffs every year with three Super Bowl titles after they go 6-11. Odds to win the AFC West are based entirely on the health of Patrick Mahomes and the additions the Chiefs made to their roster. The Raiders are the longshot in the division undergoing another overhaul after winning just three games last season.

Current Odds to Win AFC West

Some regression is expected from Denver and the Chargers are viewed as a dangerous contender making the top of the AFC West a likely dog fight to the finish. Mahomes has recovered from his season ending injury and the offense welcomes back former OC Eric Bieniemy along with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker. 

• Kansas City Chiefs +157
• Los Angeles Chargers +191
• Denver Broncos +215
• Las Vegas Raiders +1600

AFC West Odds Movement

• Despite clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record last season, the Broncos opened with low expectations.
• The return of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater to protect Justin Herbert has helped the Chargers shorten their AFC West odds considerably since hitting the board.
• After years of being a negative-money favorite, the Chiefs have lengthened to around +160 with the public hesitant to back Mahomes coming off a serious knee injury.

AFC West Standings and Recent Results

For the first time in nearly a decade a team other than Kansas City finished at the top of the AFC West standings. In fact since 2010 it’s either been the Chiefs or Broncos as the top AFC West teams with those clubs combining to win the last 16 AFC West titles. The Chargers in 2009 were the last team other than Kansas City or Denver to win the AFC West.

The Raiders will extend their division title drought to 23 seasons as they continue their rebuild. They last won the division in the first year of realignment in 2002 when they also reached the Super Bowl for the last time. Since then the Raiders have just two playoff appearances and zero playoff wins.

Latest AFC West Standings

• Denver went 14-3 last season ending Kansas City’s run of nine straight AFC West titles.
• The Broncos matched New England and Seattle for the best regular season record in the NFL.
• With a record of 6-11 the Chiefs failed to finish among the top two AFC West teams for the first time since going 2-14 in 2012.
• The Raiders have had some futile seasons since playing in the Super Bowl following the 2002 season. At 3-14 last year they earned the No. 1 overall pick in the draft with their second fewest wins in 23 years.

What the AFC West Standings Tell Us

• Last season’s AFC West standings showed a dramatic power shift with Denver unseating Kansas City at the top.
• Los Angeles also moved ahead of Kansas City by going 11-6 for the second straight year under Jim Harbaugh.
• Kansas City’s era of dominance was halted temporarily with their 6-11 ledger showing deep offensive struggles.

AFC West Team-by-Team Breakdown

AFC West odds are backing the Chiefs for a bounce back season with the return of Patrick Mahomes from last season-ending surgery. The return of a healthy Mahomes along with the addition of Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker has the Chiefs back in contender status as a top 5 favorite in the Super Bowl futures odds market. 

Denver has been trending up among AFC West teams the last three seasons under Sean Payton nearly reaching the pinnacle last year. A dominant defense and the sour taste of losing the AFC Championship at home is enough to count them as a legitimate threat to repeat. In a congested top of the AFC West odds list the Chargers have plenty of upside after going 11-6 in the first two years under Jim Harbaugh.

 Kansas City Chiefs Division Outlook

Just how well the Chiefs respond to their disastrous 2025 season depends on the health of Patrick Mahomes, who has been cleared for camp. To ignite what had become a stagnant offense the club turned to former OC Eric Bieniemy and acquired Kenneth Walker to help the running game and take pressure off Mahomes. The Chief lost some good players but drafted wisely and made shrewd deals to upgrade with younger talent. The Chiefs will go only as far as Mahomes takes them, though.

Los Angeles Chargers Division Outlook

After back-to-back 11-6 seasons and two wild card losses, the Chargers are poised to take the next step under Jim Harbaugh. The team was devastated last year when bookend tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater were shelved before the season started. Having them back is an improvement up front and comforting for Justin Herbert. The Bolts also turned to Mike McDaniel to run a more creative offense.

Denver Broncos Division Outlook

It’s rare to see a defending division champion that won 14 games open as the third favorite in its own division. That’s a sign that the AFC West predictions are up for grabs. The Broncos return a lot of production from last season with more than 90 percent of their snaps back. They had an elite defense that allowed the second fewest yards and third fewest points per game while leading the NFL in sacks. Bo Nix missed the AFC Championship and the Broncos badly need him to return from two offseason ankle surgeries.

Las Vegas Raiders Division Outlook

Their complete face plant last year at least earned the Raiders the No. 1 overall draft pick, which they used to draft Heisman Trophy winner and national champion Fernando Mendoza. While he is the QB of the future Mendoza isn’t the QB of the present, likely giving way to veteran Kirk Cousins to start the season. The Raiders have key pieces in place but need upgrades on both lines. They are focused on growth making them an AFC West odds longshot.

AFC West Stats to Know

The AFC West standings were jolted last year with Denver and Los Angeles surging to the top while Kansas City endured a rare losing season. The Chiefs finished below .500 for the first time since the season before Andy Reid became head coach. A lot of that was due to a historically bad 1-9 record in one-score games. Close game records typically have a way of evening out and the Chiefs felt it. In 2024 they were a perfect 10-0 in one-score games.

AFC West stats didn’t favor the Raiders, who had the only negative point-differential in the division and the third worst in the NFL at minus-191 prompting another overhaul. Despite their 6-11 record the Chiefs had a plus-34 point differential, which was better than the 11-6 Chargers (+28).

Key Offensive Stats

• The Broncos owned the AFC West stats finishing as the only team to average more than 23 points per game.
• Las Vegas struggled for stability with their QBs throwing just 20 TD passes while being intercepted 19 times.
• The Chiefs valued the football more than any AFC West team with only 15 giveaways the entire season.

Key Defensive Stats

• The AFC West was the only division with three teams that allowed 20 points per game or less. 
• Denver led the trio finishing third in the NFL with 18.3 points per game allowed. The Broncos were also second against the run and led the league in sacks.
• The Chargers led the AFC West with 19 interceptions, tied for third-most in the NFL.

AFC West Predictions

With the Chiefs expected to rebound from a disappointing 6-11 campaign, AFC West predictions are more difficult with three teams in the mix. Oddsmakers are on Kansas City’s rebound band wagon, though not as strongly as in previous years. Tepid betting handle has the Chiefs with between +160 to +175 odds to win the AFC West. While a fierce battle is expected at the top, the Raiders are a consensus pick to bring up the bottom of the AFC West standings. 

Best Bet to Win AFC West

• Positive regression in one-score games and the healthy return of Patrick Mahomes makes the Chiefs the best bet to win the AFC West.
• Kansas City had a lot of bad luck last season going 1-9 in close games while enduring a major injury outbreak.
• A proven team with between +160 and +175 AFC West odds offers tremendous value for a favorite.

AFC West Sleeper Pick

• The Bolts are in this category, but backing the Broncos is a smarter choice.
• Plenty of returning talent from a squad that went 14-3 gives Denver plenty of upside. And Jaylen Waddle is a major addition to the offense.
• Going 11-2 in one-score games isn’t sustainable with betting markets pricing them generously. However, an elite defense and team chemistry can make up for it.

AFC West Team to Avoid

• Without question the team to avoid in the AFC West is the Raiders.
• Undergoing a major rebuild with another new coach, Klint Kubiak is focused on developing his young offensive stars.
• No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza likely won’t start the season with the Raiders entrenched in a long term developmental plan.

Factors That Could Decide the AFC West

The entire layout of the AFC West depends on how star quarterbacks rebound from recent injury issues. Kansas City is counting on Patrick Mahomes to deliver after his late season injury put him on the shelf. Bo Nix sustained an ankle injury in Denver’s first playoff game and missed the AFC Championship, which the Broncos lost 10-7. Both teams suffered through extreme statistical anomalies that should correct themselves. Denver went 11-2 in one-score games while the Chiefs were 1-9. Correction to the mean favors Kansas City in our AFC West predictions.

Quarterback Play

• The AFC West quarterback landscape features injury recoveries, offensive-minded coaching changes and a prized developing rookie.
• The return to health of Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix is paramount to the overall success of the Chiefs and Ravens.
• With the hiring of Mike McDaniel and a bolstered offensive line, LA’s Justin Herbert is poised to have the best season of his career.
• Fernando Mendoza will shadow veteran Kirk Cousins until Raiders coach Klint Kubiak deems the No. 1 overall pick ready to play.

Strength of Schedule

• Recovering from last year’s 6-11 campaign won’t be easy with the Chiefs facing the fifth most difficult schedule in the NFL based on opponents winning percentage a season ago.
• Defending AFC West champion Denver has the easiest schedule within the division with opponents winning more than 51 percent of their games a season ago.
• The Chargers play a second-place schedule featuring marquee matchups against Houston, San Francisco and Buffalo.
• The debut of Fernando Mendoza could be delayed with the Raiders playing the second toughest schedule in the AFC West and seventh hardest overall.