Odds to Win AFC East: Betting Odds and Predictions

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills have between them won the last 17 AFC East titles. The 2026 season is shaping up to be a race between those clubs again with a clear gap between them and the rest of the division. New England had a marvelous turnaround last year winning 10 more games than they did during the 2024 season, but they are still listed behind Buffalo in AFC East odds.

And the Pats did something Buffalo was unable to do during their five-year reign as division champs: reach the Super Bowl. With one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL in former MVP Josh Allen, the championship window is still open in Buffalo and the Bills are the preseason NFL betting favorite to reclaim the AFC East crown.

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AFC East Division Overview

For the last nearly two decades the AFC East division has been owned by New England (mostly) and Buffalo, who have combined to win the last 17 division titles. Those two enter the 2026 season as the class of the division with close football betting odds for the division winner. The Bills are also the second favorite to win the Super Bowl while the Pats are included in a group of second tier favorites.

In a perpetual state of rebuild, the New York Jets along with Miami are not expected to challenge in the AFC East standings. Even doubling their win total from a season ago will extend New York’s longest current playoff drought to 16 seasons. However, their outlook is brighter than that of the Dolphins, who are in a full rebuild after moving on from former first round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa.

AFC East Teams

The four members of the AFC East Division were previously members of the Eastern Division of the American Football League before the NFL/AFL merger in 1970.

• Buffalo Bills
• Miami Dolphins
• New England Patriots
• New York Jets

Why the AFC East Race Matters

• Winning the AFC East guarantees a team a top-four seed in the conference playoffs.
• The division winner is also guaranteed a home game in the wild card round if it doesn’t finish as the top overall seed in the AFC.
• Defeating your AFC East rivals improves your playoff positioning while directly impacting theirs.

AFC East Odds to Win the Division

The Buffalo Bills have the shortest odds to win the AFC East ahead of the preseason in what has been determined to be a two-team race. The Bills are the consensus favorite to take back the division title followed closely by the defending division champion New England Patriots. There is a major gap between the division and Super Bowl contenders and the bottom-dwelling New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.

Current Odds to Win AFC East

Despite winning the AFC East last season and reaching the Super Bowl, the Patriots are still behind Buffalo in the division odds race. Not only are the Bills at negative odds to win their division, they also enter the training camp cycle as the second favorite on the NFL Championship odds board.

• Buffalo Bills -130
• New England Patriots +130
• New York Jets +1900
• Miami Dolphins +3500

AFC East Odds Movement

• According to analysts the Bills are one of the most heavily bet NFL futures entering training camp widening the gap between them and New England.
• The Patriots took advantage of a weak schedule to win 14 games last season with the realization of a first-place slate forcing their line to drift slightly.
• The market is skeptical of an aging Jets defense that saw significant departures during the offseason lengthening their odds ahead of training camp.

AFC East Standings and Recent Results

The Patriots finished atop the AFC East standings last season by two games ending Buffalo’s run of five straight division crowns. Prior to that, the Pats set an NFL record by winning 11 consecutive division titles. Miami in 2008 was the last team not from New England or Buffalo to win the division title.

The Colts franchise has not been an AFC East team since realignment in 2002 yet they have more AFC East titles than the Jets. The AFC East hasn’t been a cheap division. Thirteen of the last 16 division champions won at least 12 regular season games with the other three winners getting 11 victories.

Latest AFC East Standings

• New England went 14-3 last season to win the AFC East Division matching Denver and Seattle for the best record in the NFL.
• Buffalo won 12 games in 2025 finishing tied with the fifth-best record in the NFL.
• The Dolphins (7) and Jets (3) combined to win just 10 games with the Jets finishing in the bottom half of the AFC East division standings for a 10th straight season.

What the AFC East Standings Tell Us

• Last season’s final AFC East standings tell us there’s a massive performance gap between the top and the bottom of the division.
• New England’s perfect 8-0 road record bolstered their campaign as one of the top teams in the NFL.
• There is plenty of work ahead for the Jets, who had the NFL’s worst point differential (-203) and went 0-6 against AFC East teams.

AFC East Team-by-Team Breakdown

The Bills have a proven commodity at the most important position in former NFL MVP Josh Allen and opened as the AFC East odds favorite. After failing to get over the hump under longtime coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo pivoted to a new staff led by former OC Joe Brady. Over the past six seasons the Bills were consistently one of the best teams in the NFL averaging more than 12 wins a season.

While the championship window remains wide open in Buffalo, the Pats will be under a microscope. New coach Mike Vrabel and the development of Drake Maye helped the Patriots surge to 14 wins a season ago, improving their win total by 10 games from the 2024 campaign. The outlook is much different with the Pats being the hunted instead of the hunter.

The Jets and Dolphins did little in the offseason to rise to contender status, but they could play a significant role in how the AFC East predictions turn out by beating their heated rivals a few times during the season.

Buffalo Bills Division Outlook

Allen has thrown for more than 3,600 yards with at least 25 touchdown passes in each of the last six seasons. And the passing game likely got better with the addition of receiver D.J. Moore. The balanced attack features NFL rushing leader James Cook. The offense has been among the best in scoring and the club added pieces on defense in Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson making the Bills the betting odds favorite to reclaim the AFC East title.

New England Patriots Division Outlook

Experts anticipate some regression from the Patriots this season due in part to a more difficult schedule. The Patriots boasted the fourth-best scoring defense last season allowing just 18.8 points per game meaning Drake Maye didn’t have to win games. Still, Maye developed into a championship-caliber QB leading the NFL in completion percentage and passer rating while tossing only 8 interceptions in almost 500 pass attempts.

New York Jets Division Outlook

The Jets brought back their former draft pick Geno Smith to run the offense. Quarterback has been a block hole for the club with many trying and few succeeding at the position. It’s been so bad that Joe Namath remains the team’s all-time passing leader. Smith isn’t the answer proving the Jets are buying time, but a defense with veterans Demario Smith and Minkah Fitzpatrick could help the Jets outperform their longshot odds.

Miami Dolphins Division Outlook

Going through a complete rebuild phase and playing in a division with two of the top teams in the AFC, the outlook is bleak for the Dolphins. They moved on from former first-round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa replacing him with Malik Willis. The Fins re-signed De’Von Achane in a somewhat surprising move to remain as the centerpiece of the offense. Miami invested heavily in their lines building the team from the trenches. An overhauled roster, inexperienced QB and new coaching staff have Miami projected to be out of the race early.

AFC East Stats to Know

From a team standpoint last season was another banner year for Buffalo. Not only did Josh Allen continue his assault on the AFC East stats page, his teammate James Cook led the entire NFL with 1,621 rushing yards. The ground game took pressure off Allen, who likes to run the football to the dismay of his coaches and teammates.

Winning NFL games on the road is hard to do, so when a team goes perfect in away games it’s worth noting. The likelihood of New England winning every road game this season is slim, opening the door for Buffalo to reclaim the AFC East crown. They probably won’t have a winning record, but the Jets can’t be as bad as their NFL worst minus-203 point differential from a season ago.

Key Offensive Stats

• Led by Allen and Cook Buffalo again had a potent offense averaging the fourth-most yards and points in the NFL. They’ve been among the top 5 in the NFL in points and yards in five of the last six seasons.
• Their ability to sustain drives was a big reason for the Bills’ offensive success. They ranked second in the NFL converting more than 47 percent of third-down plays.
• The continued development of Drake Maye can keep the Patriots at the top of the AFC East standings. Last season he led the NFL in completion percentage, passer rating and QBR as the Pats scored the second-most points in the league.

Key Defensive Stats

• Defensive identity is what separates the top of the division from the bottom. Buffalo and New England finished among the top 12 in points allowed while the Jets and Dolphins ranked in the bottom fourth.
• The Jets rebuilt their defense in a much-needed move after surrendering 36 touchdown passes and nearly 30 points per game. Along with an inept offense, the Jets had a staggering -203 point differential.
• The Bills struggled against the run allowing 5.1 yards per attempt and 24 rushing scores. New coordinator Jim Leonhard has abandoned the old scheme to build a better base in 2026.

AFC East Predictions

There is a clear divide between the top two teams and the bottom two teams making the AFC East predictions much simpler. Of course no one expected the Patriots to make a 10-win jump from 2024 to last season’s AFC East division title, but the Jets or Dolphins aren’t in a position to do that in 2026. And that unexpected leap is also why the Pats have the second-shortest odds to win the AFC East.

Best Bet to Win AFC East

• Consensus models lean toward the Bills because Josh Allen brings offensive continuity and a stabilizing force at the QB position.
• Coaching changes are often the result of a poor season, but that’s not the case for the Bills, who won 12 regular season games. The move to Joe Brady was sign the team needed a jolt to finally get to the Super Bowl.
• Not only are the Bills the favorite to win the AFC East, they are also the second favorite in the Super Bowl futures market.

AFC East Sleeper Pick

• By default the Jets are the AFC East prediction as a sleeper. The Bills and Pats are the overwhelming favorites and Miami is in teardown mode leaving the Jets.
• Geno Smith is a competent quarterback, which is exactly what the Jets need after their disastrous showing a season ago when they were last in red zone efficiency.
• Major upgrades on defense make it entirely possible the Jets can make a significant leap. A few division upsets could also propel them into the race.

AFC East Team to Avoid

The Dolphins are the definitive team to avoid in the AFC East with their rebuild creating a dangerously low floor.

Miami was a poor road team last season going 2-6 with a -77 point differential. With a less talented roster it will be harder for them to win tough games on the road.

Factors That Could Decide the AFC East

The overall health of the Bills and the continuity in their coaching staff under Joe Brady will be a key factor in ultimately deciding the AFC East Division. There is no player more important to Buffalo’s success than Josh Allen. New England’s reversal last season to 14 wins sets them up for regression. They won’t be taken lightly and the Pats also get a more difficult schedule. How Drake Maye and the rest of the club continues to progress will define their AFC East predictions.

Quarterback Play

• The starting quarterback landscape in the AFC East is a mix of franchise cornerstones, veteran fill-ins and developmental projects.
• A former NFL MVP, Allen enters the season as the league-wide favorite to win the coveted award giving Buffalo the gold-standard for AFC East quarterback play.
• Maye is coming off a spectacular season leading New England to the Super Bowl. He has weapons to improve the offense, but he has yet to prove himself over an extended period.
• Geno Smith (NYJ) and Malik Willis (MIA) are the bridges for their team. They likely won’t be around once the fortunes change, though Smith’s veteran presence should stabilize New York’s group.

Strength of Schedule

• The AFC East as a whole deals with a tough schedule of opponents this season. Three of the four members rank among the top 10 most difficult schedules based on the previous season’s winning percentages.
• Going through a massive rebuild the season could be a disaster for Miami, which plays the second most difficult schedule.
• The Jets have a moderately tough road making their sleeper pick status more favorable.
• New England (6th) and Buffalo (8th) face demanding schedules in their race for the AFC East title.