Northwestern at USC: Odds, Lines & Expert Picks

A comeback win last week helped the USC Trojans avoid their first losing streak of the season and kept them on the fringe of the CFP. Teams can better handle a short week after a win and the Trojans are a more than 2-touchdown favorite to beat the Northwestern Wildcats in early college football odds. The Big Ten clash has a 9 p.m. ET kickoff on Friday, November 7 from the LA Memorial Coliseum. The game will air on FOX.

Northwestern at USC Preview

There’s a common theme between the teams heading into the Week 11 contest; both played their most recent game at Nebraska. Two weeks ago the Wildcats saw their 4-game winning streak end with a 28-21 setback to Big Red where they pushed the 7-point spread. Still, the Wildcats are enjoying a successful season going 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS.

Producing yards and points has been a struggle, especially against the better teams in the Big Ten. Overall they’re averaging 22.5 points, 101st in the country. The number drops to 18.6 points per game in their five league contests. To be 3-2 in those games shows us how good the Wildcats have been defensively.

Northwestern has been able to run the ball effectively averaging 188 yards to rank 35th in the country. They’ve rushed for more than 200 yards three times and average 4.9 yards a carry.
Caleb Komolafe leads the team with 608 rushing yards and 7 TDs.
Twice the Wildcats have been an underdog of more than 20 points beating Penn State outright in Week 7 and getting a payout against Oregon in Week 3.
The Cats are 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven games as a road dog of more than 10 points.

USC and defense aren’t often mentioned in the same sentence. But with Jayden Maiava and the passing game struggling last week, the ground attack and defense made up for it to beat Nebraska on the road. The Trojans entered with the No. 1 pass offense in the country but Maiava was just 9 of 23 for 135 yards with an interception.

A diverse attack has the Trojans ranked 6th in the country in total offense averaging nearly 506 yards a game. They showed the ability to run the ball with King Miller getting 129 of their 202 yards against the Huskers. Maiava had better luck running the ball gaining 62 yards and a TD on 11 carries. USC put up a season-low point total in their last two games playing UNDER the total in three straight outings.

The Trojans have scored a TD on 69.2 percent of their red zone possessions.
USC has turned the ball over 11 times to rank 15th in the 18-team Big Ten. They’ve made up for it with 13 takeaways for a plus-2 turnover margin.
A double-digit home favorite 10 times since the start of the 2023 season, the Trojans won every game while going 7-3 against the college football point spread.

Northwestern at USC Predictions

Beating USC is a tall task for an undersized Northwestern group. But, the Wildcats play hard and have surprised a lot of people. Outside of Oregon they haven’t played the cream of the Big Ten crop and I think USC is undervalued at -15. The balanced Trojan offense is a weapon and the Cats don’t have enough playmakers to hang close, which is why backing the home team minus the points is a good bet.

Northwestern at USC Betting Tips

USC opened -15 on the early betting line, the fifth time this season they’ve been favored by at least that many points. They are 2-2 ATS in the previous four.
The Trojans opened -687 on the moneyline with Northwestern priced at +528.
Northwestern is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games, including an outright win over Penn State when getting 21 points.
The total hit at 50.5 matching NW’s Week 3 game against Oregon as the highest of the season.
The Wildcats are 6-2 against the UNDER.

Northwestern at USC Head to Head and Key Stats

This will be the first meeting between the programs since the 1996 Rose Bowl, a 41-32 USC victory.
The Trojans have won all five matchups with the first coming in the 1952 season.
Since beating Wisconsin in the 2020 season, Northwestern has lost 12 consecutive games to ranked opponents going 6-6 ATS in those contests.