NHL Playoff Betting Preview: Canadiens at Sabres

Buffalo wrestled home ice advantage away from Les Canadiens with a 3-2 win in Game 4 reducing the Eastern Conference semifinal to a best-of-3 series. The result against the NHL Playoffs spread so far should have been expected since the teams were separated by just three points in the season standings.

There is more than a good chance this series goes the distance considering the teams split four games during the regular year as well. After winning 26 games on home ice during the season the Sabres are 2-3 in Buffalo this postseason giving Montreal hope for another road triumph.

Canadiens at Sabres Preview

Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinal Stanley Cup playoff series between the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres will be played on Thursday, May 14, 2026 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET with the game airing on TNT.

Public Betting Odds Factors

While the season and playoff series between the Habs and Sabres have been close the scores haven’t necessarily been. Of the eight games played between the clubs only one ended with a 1-goal difference, that being the most recent contest on Tuesday.

Special teams play a huge role in postseason games and Montreal was doomed in Game 4. They surrendered two power play goals and went 1 for 7 with a man advantage. The game winning goal was scored on a Buffalo power play minutes after the Habs failed on 4-minute man advantage.

Montreal ranked 18th on the penalty kill during the regular season and their PK rate is lower in the postseason, killing just 77.8 of shorthanded situations. The Habs have allowed at least one PPG in seven of their 11 playoff games.

Taking full advantage of Montreal’s weak PK, the Sabres have turned their power play around. After going 1 for 24 on the PP against Boston in the first round, Buffalo is clicking at better than 31 percent (5 of 16) after a pair of PPGs in Game 4.

Going back to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in net for Game 4 paid off for Buffalo. The Sabres dropped Game 2 and 3 with Alex Lyon allowing 9 goals. The two split time during the regular season with UPL posting slightly better GAA and SV%.

Teams don’t expect to get breaks when playing on the road during the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Sabres used a huge one to even the series, though. Trailing 2-1 in the second period, Tage Thompson’s dump-in caromed off the side wall into the crease and got past Jakub Dobes.

Canadiens at Sabres Predictions

After a stellar regular season taking over as Montreal’s No. 1 netminder, Jakub Dobes has been solid this postseason playing every minute. He’s been particularly good on the road winning 4 of his 6 starts with a 2.26 GAA and .918 save percentage. He was spectacular in the opening round Game 7 win over Tampa Bay stopping 28 of 29 shots and rebounded from a bad Game 1 to shut down the Sabres in Game 2.

Montreal’s offensive production has dipped considerably in the playoffs. The Habs averaged 3.4 goals per game during the season but have scored three or less in eight of 11 playoff games. At some point Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky will break out of their slumber.

Canadiens at Sabres Betting Tips

The teams have combined to score at least 6 goals in 7 of their 8 meetings this season, so monitor the total on the NHL Playoffs spread closely.

Montreal has won 8 of their last 10 games in Buffalo scoring at least 3 goals in 9 of those games.

The Sabres are 2-3 at home this postseason getting outscored 16-12.

Canadiens at Sabres Head to Head and Key Stats

Their breakout season has allowed Buffalo to beat Montreal. The Habs won 9 of 12 matchups prior to this season, but the clubs have split their eight overall meetings.