NFL Weekly Predictions: Odds, Best Bets & Betting Preview

Week 5 of the NFL season features several crucial divisional battles, another trip across the pond for the International Series and a potential Super Bowl preview on tap for NFL weekly predictions. This week also brings about the start of byes with Kansas City and Carolina the first teams to take a week off. That leaves a 15-game schedule that opens on Thursday night when the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Dallas Cowboys as a 9.5-point NFL odds underdog.

Featured NFL Games This Week

An early season showdown in the NFC West is one of the biggest NFL football games this week when the undefeated San Francisco 49ers visit the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. The Niners are one of three 4-0 teams and play their first true road game of the season as an early 2.5-point underdog on the NFL betting. The Bears and Packers renew their historic rivalry with Chicago, a rare road favorite in the series despite being without Caleb Williams for another week. 

Only once in NFL history has a team rebounded from a 0-4 start to qualify for the playoffs. The Chargers did it back in the early 1990s and they’ll have to do it again. The Bolts lost 30-23 in Seattle joining Tampa Bay, Houston, Tennessee and Miami as the remaining winless teams. Buffalo fell from the unbeaten ranks with a loss to New England and will face the Rams on Monday Night Football in a matchup of Super Bowl futures odds favorites. 

Matchups With the Biggest Storylines

• The 49ers will look for revenge in their key NFC West matchup with Seattle. The Seahawks drubbed the Niners in last season’s playoffs and have won three of the last four meetings. Division supremacy and NFC power balance is at stake.
• The NFL will have one less winless team following Sunday’s Houston at Tennessee matchup. The Texans started last season 0-3 and reached the postseason. They have a bigger chore this season but the Texans are a 7-point NFL betting line favorite to beat the Titans for a fourth straight game.
• A potential Super Bowl preview closes the NFL betting week with the Rams hosting Buffalo on Monday Night Football. It’s a duel between MVP quarterbacks with Josh Allen facing Matthew Stafford and for the first time this season the Bills are catching points (+2.5).

Games That Could Impact the Playoff Picture

• Only once has a team that started a season with four losses rallied to reach the playoffs. There’s still a slim chance for the Bucs, Chargers and Texans, but another setback extinguishes those hopes. Tennessee and Miami are also winless, but they are not considered playoff contenders. 
• The 49ers can take a 2-game lead over Seattle in the NFC West and secure a crucial head-to-head victory for tiebreakers purposes. The Seahawks can muddy the waters with a key victory for division supremacy.
• Not only is Chicago-Green Bay the oldest rivalry in the league, both teams are looking to stay within striking distance of undefeated Minnesota for the NFC North lead while also improving their records for wild card positioning.

WHERE ARE YOU BETTING FROM?

Select your state and download the app.

Ohio Ohio New Jersey New Jersey Kentucky Kentucky

NFL Picks & Predictions

Making accurate NFL predictions today became more difficult as the injury wave to starting quarterbacks around the league continued. Already down a starter, the Commanders lost backup Marcus Mariota to a knee injury leaving Athan Kaliakmanis as the probable starter against the Giants. The status of Lamar Jackson is uncertain after he sustained an ankle injury in Baltimore’s win over Tennessee. Tyler Huntley gets the start if Jackson can’t go.

Predicted Winners

• Tampa Bay struggled on offense last week with Jalon Daniels at QB. On a short week with less preparation time, I’m not sure things are going to be much better against an aggressive Dallas front. And the Boys are clicking on offense with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
• Playing their first true road game and a stiff opponent in Seattle, the 49ers won’t have it so easy. They’ve been efficient on offense, but the Seahawks can fluster opponents at home and in a big division matchup back the Seahawks in NFL picks.
• In a battle of winless teams Houston has more upside and they’ve played well enough to have a few wins. We saw the Texans in desperation last season; the urgency is compounded with a rebuilding Titans squad in their way.

Potential Upsets to Watch

• If Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are unable to play on Sunday Cincinnati’s offense is severely impacted leaving them vulnerable for an upset at the hands of Miami. The Dolphins have not scored more than 13 points in any of their four games.
• The Browns take a 3-game winning streak into their matchup with the Jets as a 2.5-point NFL betting line road dog. Cleveland keeps the momentum in a straight up win.
• Early betting models project the Raiders to bounce back from their first loss to upset New England on the road.

Games That Could Be Closer Than Expected

• On paper the Houston at Tennessee game looks like a mismatch. However, both teams enter without a win and the low total suggests a defensive struggle that will keep the score close.
• Miami could bust out offensively against a vulnerable Bengals defense keeping the score much closer than the 7-point spread in favor of Cincinnati suggests.
• Losing two games in a row has dampened the Eagles, who are a 6.5-point NFL betting odds underdog for the game against Jacksonville in London. Look for a rebound by Philly keeping the game close and even threaten an outright victory.

NFL Odds & Betting Preview

Dallas opened as the biggest NFL betting odds favorite (-9.5) in Week 5 of the NFL season, while eight games have a point spread of a field goal or less. Las Vegas covered the 3.5-point spread in its 30-27 loss to Kansas City last week and is the only team with payouts in all four games. The Raiders are getting 3.5-points in their matchup at New England.

How the Betting Lines Compare

• Parity dominates the NFL odds board in Week 5 with eight of the 15 games having NFL odds of 3 points or less. The closest spread is Minnesota -1.5 against New Orleans.
• Two games boast a total of more than 50 points. The Detroit Lions have been unable to stop opponents and have a total of 54.5 points for their matchup with Arizona. The Monday night game between Buffalo and the Rams is also at 54.5.

Factors That Could Move the Odds

• Once again injury concerns regarding several key players could alter NFL odds. Washington is down to its third-string QB after backup Marcus Mariota was injured last week. And the Ravens could be without Lamar Jackson due to an ankle injury.
• Tampa Bay and Chicago will play once again without their starting QBs as Baker Mayfield and Caleb Williams remain out. 
• Heavy betting action on teams that are on a hot streak or on high-profile teams triggers market corrections that tend to overvalue those clubs.

Best Bets for This Week's NFL Games

Analysts have targeted several games as Week 5 NFL best bets, highlighted by Houston getting its first win of the season covering the 7-point spread against Tennessee in a matchup of winless teams. 

Underdogs Worth Considering

• There is value backing Green Bay +3 in its home game with the Bears. Under Matt LaFleur the Packers cover 75 percent of the time as home underdogs and will face one of Chicago’s backup QBs.
• The Chargers desperately need a win and the Broncos do not resemble the team that dominated the AFC West last season. Backing the Bolts at +3.5 grades as a NFL best bet.
• Cleveland will ride the momentum of a 3-game winning streak into its game with the Jets while also getting 2.5 points giving the visitors excellent value.

Betting Markets With Potential Value

• Miami can’t score and the Bengals could be without receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins stalling their offense. This makes backing the UNDER 42.5 a smart play.
• No team has played more International Series games than Jacksonville and that experience will help in their showdown with Philadelphia creating value on the spread.

Final NFL Weekly Predictions & Key Takeaways

The biggest takeaway for NFL Week 5 is the parity that’s dominating the board with 10 of the 15 games having a point spread of four points or fewer. The final strategy boils down to dissecting key QB injury adjustments and identifying where public demand has created artificial value.

Biggest Factors to Monitor

• Quarterback availability and backfield injuries are key factors driving the NFL betting markets and changing game plans entering Week 5.
• A huge public money trend and unique travel requirements in London are creating major market fluctuations in the Philadelphia-Jacksonville game.
• Public perception and heavy betting volume can completely flip a line creating artificial value on the other side.

Key Matchup to Monitor

• There are more high-profile games on the schedule, but experts have identified the Giants at Washington contest as the one to monitor. Due to quarterback instability on both sides, this critical NFC East game carries the most volatile betting line.