NFL Week 4: Patriots at Bills Betting Odds & Picks

The Buffalo Bills look to continue their perfect season when they host AFC East rival the New England Patriots in the Week 5 version of Sunday Night Football. The Bills are taking advantage of an early stretch of home games with this being their fourth in the first five weeks. They’ve won their last 14 regular season home games twice beating the Pats in that span. The game kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY and will be televised on NBC.

Patriots at Bills Preview

After passing the torch as kings of the AFC East, the Patriots are looking to retrieve said item. Buffalo’s current run of five straight division titles came immediately after the Pats NFL record streak of 11 in a row ended. Winning within the division is important and both clubs did that during their streaks. New England is the only division opponent to beat Buffalo in the Bills’ last 12 games, and they did it twice.

The Pats are coming off an impressive Week 4 win over Carolina where Drake Maye continued his hot play. Maye was 14 of 17 for 203 yards and two TDs. He also had one of the team’s three rushing scores. Over his last three games Maye has completed 79.2 percent of his passes for 701 yards and six TDs. In that stretch the Pats are averaging nearly 30 points.

In their two wins the Pats averaged 37.5 points while scoring just 13.5 points per game in two losses.
Maye leads the NFL completing 74.0 percent of his passes and is fifth with a 109.4 passer rating.
The Patriots are 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS in their last nine road games.
The Pats have turned the ball over 6 times, the third-highest total in the league, but they’ve not committed a turnover in their two wins.

The Bills have not lost a regular season home game since Week 10 of the 2023 season. They’ve won 14 straight during the regular year, and including playoffs over the same stretch the Bills are 17-1. They’ve benefitted from a soft schedule this season with their four opponents a combined 2-14 through four weeks.

Being favored doesn’t guarantee a win and the Bills had to perform. They had a dramatic comeback in Week 1 beating Baltimore by scoring 16 points in the final four minutes. The past three games have been less stressful with double-digit victories in all of them, though the Bills failed to cover the spread in the last two when favored by at least 11 points on the NFL spread.

The Bills have scored a touchdown on every opening possession this year.
Buffalo has turned the ball over just once this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
Josh Allen is just 7-6 with a completion percentage under 60 in 13 career starts against the Patriots.
James Cook has rushed for more than 100 yards in three straight games and leads the NFL with 5 rushing TDs.

Patriots at Bills Predictions

I’m not sold on New England’s defense, especially against a Bills team that’s more balanced with the emergence of Cook. Allen hasn’t played his best against the Pats, throwing one interception in each of his last four starts against them. The MVP will figure it out, though, leading the Bills to a cover on the NFL betting odds.

Patriots at Bills Betting Tips

The Bills are laying 8-points on the early line with a moneyline price of -407.
New England is 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games as a road dog of 7+ points.
The Pats are +346 on the moneyline.
Buffalo has won its last 13 home games against division foes going 5-1 ATS when the line is less than 10 points.
The total opened at 48.5, the highest in the last 10 meetings.
The teams have gone OVER the total in six of the last 8 games.

Patriots at Bills Head to Head and Key Stats

Taking advantage of the Bills resting starters including Allen, New England won the last meeting 23-16 in last season’s finale.
Prior to that, the Bills had won six of seven games including four straight at home.
The Patriots have earned payouts in the last four encounters.
The teams have gone OVER the total in three of the last four games in Buffalo.