While there’s plenty at stake in this Week 4 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and
Dallas Cowboys, all eyes will be focused on Micah Parsons. Without the former NFL defensive rookie of the year the Cowboys have been a sieve allowing more than 30 points a game. In turn the Packers have become a Super Bowl favorite following the preseason trade. This compelling NBC Sunday Night Football matchup takes place on September 28 from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Packers at Cowboys Preview
Following their acquisition of Parsons the Packers vaulted up the futures odds boards overtaking Detroit as the favorite to win the NFC North and currently sporting the fourth-shortest Super Bowl odds. And things looked good for the Pack with impressive wins over the Lions and Commanders to start the season covering the NFL point spread in both games. However, the Packers got a reality check last week.
The defense has played at an elite level not allowing more than 18 points in any of their three games. The Packers have the best scoring defense in the NFL and are third in total defense giving up an average of 232.3 yards per game. Last week they held the Browns scoreless for more than 56 minutes but surrendered 13 points late and were upset 13-10. Jordan Love threw a costly interception and the offense totaled just 230 yards.
- Love’s fourth quarter interception last week was Green Bay’s first and only turnover.
- Parsons has 1.5 of the Packers’ 10 sacks, fifth-most in the NFL.
- The Green Bay defense allows a NFL low 3.8 yards per play.
- Last week’s loss was Green Bay’s first in 12 games when playing as a road favorite of 6 or more points. They are 6-6 ATS in that span.
The Cowboys sure could use a player like Parsons right now. They boast one of the worst defenses in the NFL surrendering 397.7 yards and 30.7 points per game. They have only four sacks and rank in the bottom third in pass rush win rate. To make matters worse, a secondary that’s given up 748 passing yards and seven touchdowns the last two games could be without Trevon Diggs, who sustained a shoulder injury last week.
With top receiver CeeDee Lamb unlikely to play due to an ankle injury, the Dallas offense is in a pickle. Lamb has 16 receptions for 222 yards and is a threat to stretch the field. Lamb played just 7 snaps last week and the Cowboys had their lowest scoring output of the year.
- The Cowboys are just 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 home games, a run that began with a playoff loss to Green Bay in the 2023 season.
- Dallas has one takeaway this year and is tied for last in the NFL with a minus-5 turnover margin.
- Dak Prescott has completed more than 71 percent of his passes for 800 yards and the Boys have the third-best pass offense.
- The OVER is 7-3 in Dallas’ last 10 home games.
Packers at Cowboys Predictions
Players hear what’s being said and most pundits are predicting a Green Bay rout. There is pride in that Dallas locker room and defending their home turf is a priority, as is getting a win. I’m staying away from the NFL point spread, though, and will instead back the UNDER with both sides dealing injuries to offensive players.
Packers at Cowboys Betting Tips
- Green Bay is a 6.5-point road favorite with a moneyline price of -321.
- The Cowboys have been a home dog of 6+ points five times since the start of the 2020 season. They are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games.
- Dallas is +271 on the moneyline.
- The total hit the board at 47.
Packers at Cowboys Head to Head and Key Stats
- The Packers have won the last five overall meetings and 10 of the past 11 going 9-2 ATS.
- Including two playoff games, Green Bay has won five straight in Dallas with five payouts.
- The teams cashed the OVER in the last five games and in seven straight played in Dallas.
- Prescott has thrown at least one interception in each of his 6 career starts (2 playoffs) against the Packers and has tossed 10 total.
