NFL Week 4 Best Bets | Odds, Picks & Predictions

NFL Week 4 should be full of drama with a lot of good matchups, including a pair of unbeaten teams matching up in Tampa, as the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles take on the Bucs. Two teams that were thought to be Super Bowl contenders, but haven’t looked the part, battle on Sunday afternoon as the Ravens visit the Chiefs on CBS. NFL Week 4 begins with the Seattle Seahawks traveling to Arizona to take on the Cardinals on Thursday night on Prime Video with the Seahawks a slight favorite in NFL betting odds at Prime.

Notable NFL Week 4 Odds

Vikings (-2.5) vs. Steelers – Historic Dublin, Ireland kickoff at Croke Park (9:30 AM ET) marks the NFL's first regular-season game in Ireland. Minnesota comes off an impressive performance while Pittsburgh's offense struggled in stretches despite beating New England. The Vikings boast the NFL's best defensive EPA per play (minus-0.17). Both teams enter at 2-1.

Commanders (-1) vs Falcons – Washington dominated Vegas without Jayden Daniels at quarterback and he may not play again this week with Marcus Mariota under center again. The has moved toward the Falcons and the Under.

Bears at Raiders (-1) – This line has barely moved from its opening, with Las Vegas getting slight home respect despite looking listless against Washington. Chicago didn't allow Caleb Williams to be sacked in Week 3's win over Dallas and forced four turnovers on defense.

Colts at Rams (-3.5) – Los Angeles looks to rebound from their heartbreaking Eagles loss while Indianapolis seeks to continue their surprising start. The Rams are getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers.

Let’s take a look at more of the information and stats as we consider NFL Week 4 best bets.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

I am coming off a week in which I went 2-2-1 with the NFL picks. As a reminder, when it comes to NFL best bets each week you should know that I go against the grain with almost all of my picks. If the public does well, then I will probably struggle, but if the public loses, then I will probably have a good week. Let’s look at Week 4 NFL predictions.

New York Giants +6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The public is going against the Giants again this week and there is no question that New York is struggling, but the Chargers haven’t been blowing teams away. The Giants will be starting rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart this week and he immediately gives them a better chance to win, as Russell Wilson is no longer a good quarterback. I’ll go against the public and take the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys +7 vs. Green Bay Packers

The public is all over the Packers this week with the Micah Parsons returning to Dallas for revenge angle. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone, so this should be a high scoring game. The Packers found a way to lose last week and now they are laying a touchdown on the road? I’ll go against the public and take Dallas.

Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 at Denver Broncos

I get it. The public wants nothing to do with the Bengals after their humiliation by the Vikings last week. Cincinnati is still a good team and I expect Browning to be better this week. And who is Denver to be laying more than a touchdown to anyone. I’ll take the Bengals plus the points.

NFL Week 4 Betting Stats

3-0 vs 3-0 Rarities: Only 12 times since 2002 have two 3-0 teams faced off, and the underdog has covered in 8 of those 12 matchups (66.7%). Eagles-Buccaneers present this rare opportunity with the Bucs getting points at home.
Winless Teams in Week 4: Teams starting 0-3 have historically performed well ATS in Week 4, covering at a 57.8% clip since 2010. The Texans, Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, and Saints all enter Week 4 searching for their first win.
Double-Digit Favorites: Week 4 double-digit favorites have covered just 42% of games over the past decade, with the Buffalo Bills sitting as massive 16-point favorites over New Orleans representing the week's largest spread.

NFL Week 4 Betting Tips

Fade the Public on Buffalo: The Bills (-16) host a Saints team in complete disarray after getting demolished 44-13 in Seattle. New Orleans is 0-3 and has been outscored by 43 points while dealing with special teams disasters and coaching struggles. Historically these large spreads against desperate teams provide value.
Target 3-0 Underdogs: Tampa Bay (+3.5) represents rare value as a 3-0 underdog. The Buccaneers have won three straight games by a combined 6 points, mastering late-game execution.
Monday Night Underdogs: Both Monday games feature home favorites (Dolphins -3, Broncos -7.5). Monday Night Football NFL betting underdogs have covered at a 54.3% rate since 2015, particularly in the second game of doubleheaders where public money flows to favorites.