NFL Week 3 Predictions: Odds, Best Bets & Preview

Several impactful injuries could affect the NFL predictions for Week 3 of the season. The road to recovery became more difficult for Washington, who lost Jayden Daniels to a dislocated elbow in a loss to Dallas that dropped the Commanders to 0-2. The Bears and Giants will be without their starting QBs for a few games after Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart exited their Week 2 contests. The NFL betting week opens with a NFL clash between Atlanta and Green Bay. The Falcons will be welcoming back their starting QB Michael Penix Jr. with hopes of reviving a sluggish offense. 

Featured NFL Games This Week

The lineup of NFL football games this week features critical divisional matchups, heavily-favored powerhouse teams and an exciting international matchup. After a scoring surge in Week 1 we saw a reduction in points last week with seven teams scoring in single digits and the UNDER cashing in 10 of 16 games. The biggest decline came from the Bears, who scored just a field goal in their 9-3 loss to Minnesota after tallying 59 points in Week 1.

The Bills look like the best team in the NFL after two games with Josh Allen vaulting to top of the NFL MVP futures odds. Allen accounted for five TDs in the 41-31 win over Detroit and the Bills lead the NFL averaging 38.5 points. Buffalo hosts the winless Chargers on Sunday as a 7-point favorite on the early line. Dallas and Baltimore battle in Brazil in the late Sunday window with another inter conference tilt between the Rams and Broncos on Sunday Night Football. Unbeaten Philadelphia looks to improve to 3-0 visiting Chicago without Caleb Williams on Monday Night Football. 

Matchups With the Biggest Storylines

• Two desperate teams will take the field in Indianapolis looking for a much-needed victory. The Texans and Colts enter the AFC South matchup at 0-2 and can ill-afford another setback. Indy extended its overall losing streak to nine games with an OT loss to Kansas City on Sunday night. Houston opened last season with three straight losses then won 12 of 14 to reach the playoffs. 
• Atlanta is looking at the return of Michael Penix Jr. as a catalyst to spark the NFL lowest scoring team. The Falcons totaled just 16 points losing their first two games and have the league’s worst turnover margin at minus-6.
• Nobody would have expected the Week 3 Raiders at Saints game to be so impactful. Las Vegas opened with a pair of wins and can match their entire win total from last season with another victory. The Saints posted the biggest upset in Week 2 and moved to 1-1 beating the Ravens on the road as a 7.5-point underdog on the football betting line.

Games That Could Impact the Playoff Picture

• While it is still early in the season, NFL games this week feature critical early season tier-sorting battles that could carry significant weight for January tiebreakers and playoff seeding.
• The Cincinnati Bengals have looked good early shutting down Houston in a 20-6 win last week moving to 2-0. A win on the road against division rival Pittsburgh would give them an early stranglehold on the AFC North.
• The Texans bucked a historical trend last season reaching the playoffs after a 0-3 start. Doing it two years in a row will be more difficult as the chances of qualifying drop significantly. The Colts are in the same spot following Monday’s overtime loss to Kansas City, Indy’s ninth straight setback dating to last season.

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NFL Picks & Predictions

Just when you think you have the NFL figured out you realize you don’t. There were some surprising results last week with Las Vegas and New Orleans winning outright as touchdown dogs. The teams face off in a surprising matchup with the Saints just a failed 2-point OT conversion away from being 2-0. There is plenty of support for New Orleans getting a win in NFL predictions today in their home opener. It looks like the Chiefs are back with Patrick Mahomes looking comfortable behind center. They are the biggest Week 3 favorite at -11.5 but can cover against a dreadful Miami unit.

Predicted Winners

• Before the injuries set in, the 49ers will look to stockpile as many wins as they can. They face Arizona on Sunday in a NFC West clash as another heavy favorite. The Niners crushed Miami last week and are 2-0 against the NFL betting line. They are the second biggest favorite on the Week 3 board laying 8.5-points.
• Giving 11.5-points might seem a bit excessive in the NFL. However, the Dolphins have shown to be the worst team in the NFL in the early season and take on a rejuvenated Chiefs squad that appears to have its swagger back. KC withstood a game Indianapolis squad and appears to be a NFL best bet to cover the 11.5-point spread.
• The Seahawks and Commanders are headed in opposite directions. Seattle could have Sam Darnold back for this game while the Commanders will navigate the next few weeks without Jayden Daniels. Seattle can win by at least a touchdown covering the 6.5-point opening spread.

Potential Upsets to Watch

• Catching 3-points on the early line puts the Cowboys as a prime candidate to upset Baltimore in the first International Series game of the season. The Dallas offense came alive behind four Dak Prescott touchdown passes last week and could exploit Baltimore’s leaky secondary to secure a straight up win.
• The Bears are a 4.5-point underdog in their Monday Night Football matchup with Philadelphia with the markets reacting to the Caleb Williams injury. Backup Tyson Bagent has been with the club for several years and will get his chance to lead a Chicago team that is seriously underrated for this game.

Games That Could Be Closer Than Expected

• The 49ers have dominated their first two games and look like one of the top teams in the NFL. However, divisional matchups in the NFC West rarely go according to plan. The Cards aren’t as bad as they showed last week and they are talented enough to hang with an overconfident San Francisco group.
• The Chargers are pretty much in a do-or-die situation as a 7-point dog against Buffalo. Losing their first two games puts the Bolts in a precarious situation and I anticipate they will respond in a positive way. The Bills have looked invincible, but this is the NFL and stranger things have happened already so I expect LA to hang tight and potentially get the upset.

NFL Odds & Betting Preview

Key quarterback injuries are heavily influencing the Week 3 NFL betting odds. The Eagles have moved to a 4.5-point road favorite against the Bears following Caleb Williams’ injury. The loss of Jayden Daniels moved Washington to +7 against Seattle. The Chiefs are the biggest favorite on the Week 3 board laying 11.5-points to the Dolphins. The game between Baltimore and Dallas in Brazil has the highest total at 52.5 points.

How the Betting Lines Compare

• The Week 3 NFL betting odds game totals have reacted to a low scoring slate of action with nine games boasting a total of 45 points or less.
• Four games opened with a point spread of a converted touchdown or more with eight games having a spread of a field goal or less.
• Oddsmakers targeted the Minnesota at Tampa Bay games as the closest with the Vikings a slight 1.5-point favorite.

Factors That Could Move the Odds

• Injuries to key offensive players last week forced a dramatic drop in NFL odds game totals, particularly in the Giants-Titans and Seahawks-Commanders games.
• The offensive exploits of the Panthers have moved odds in their favor. Averaging the second-most points per game, Carolina emerged as a 2.5-point road favorite against Cleveland.
• We typically don’t see a total this high in an international game making the Cowboys-Ravens total of 52.5 a rarity and the highest on the Week 3 board.

Best Bets for This Week's NFL Games

Week 3 NFL best bets focus on capitalizing on overvalued backup quarterbacks, key injury reports, and early-season statistical trend lines. Based on these factors analysts have identified a few games as value bets. Despite laying 8.5-points the Niners have clicked early in the year and are a consensus pick to cover the 8.5-point spread against Arizona.

Underdogs Worth Considering

• The Cowboys are being undervalued in their international game with Baltimore catching 3-points on the line. Baltimore struggled against the Saints leaving them vulnerable to the explosive Dallas offense.
• Look for the Buccaneers to bounce back at home as a desperate 1.5-point underdog. Oddsmakers have overcorrected the line in favor of the Vikings making Tampa Bay a sharp play at home.

Betting Markets With Potential Value

• The Giants saw their line plummet following Jaxson Dart’s injury. They were -6.5 on the look-ahead line and are now -3. With former No. 1 draft pick Jameis Winston getting first-team reps the offense will perform better making the Giants a good buy.
• There is a lot of value backing Seattle -7 on the road against Washington. The aggressive defense will be effective against Marcus Mariota.

Final NFL Weekly Predictions & Key Takeaways

The NFL Week 3 storylines and final predictions are shaped by a wave of QB injuries forcing heavy line movements. Also, eight teams are reaching desperation mode having lost their first two games. Playoff chances get even shorter for teams that start 0-3, though it happened just last year with the Texans making the postseason.

Biggest Factors to Monitor

• Much has been said about the injuries to starting QBs, but a few teams are getting their signal-callers back. Sam Darnold is expected to start for Seattle and Michael Penix Jr. has been confirmed as Atlanta’s starter.
• Bettors should cross-reference early week look-ahead betting lines with current spreads and totals to exploit spots where the markets have overreacted.

Key Matchup to Monitor

• How Dallas and Baltimore manage travel demands for their tilt in Brazil will be worth watching. With the over/under a week-high 52.5 points closely monitor the first several positions for potential value if either team appears affected by jetlag.