NFL Week 1 Best Bets | Odds, Picks & Predictions

NFL

The NFL regular season begins on Thursday night with the Cowboys and Eagles on NBC and wraps up with the Vikings and Bears on Monday night on ABC and ESPN. The first week of the season is always exciting, as bettors get their first chance at betting NFL action after a long off-season and sportsbooks anticipate a large handle. Let’s take a look at some of the information and stats as we consider NFL Week 1 best bets.

NFL Week 1 Preview

The season opens Thursday night on NBC with the defending champion Eagles hosting the Cowboys in Philly, followed by a rare Friday showcase in São Paulo, Brazil as the Chiefs take on the Chargers on YouTube. Expect banner-night energy in Philadelphia and high-tempo fireworks in Brazil.

Sunday offers excitement throughout the day. The action begins with early divisional tests (Bucs-Falcons, Bengals-Browns, Giants-Commanders) and late-afternoon headliners (49ers-Seahawks, Lions-Packers, Texans-Rams), and a primetime showdown between two of the top teams in the NFL as the Ravens visit the Bills on Sunday Night Football.

Week 1 closes out with Monday Night Football on ABC and ESPN with the Vikings at the Bears. It will be a first look at the Bears under new head coach Ben Johnson.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

When it comes to NFL best bets each week you should know that I go against the grain with almost all of my picks. We know the public loves taking favorites and they love betting popular teams. That means I will take a lot of underdogs and also bet on a lot of so-called bad teams. Let’s look at Week 1.

Carolina Panthers +3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars – Why is Jacksonville laying more than a field goal? Have the Jaguars proved anything in recent years? This should be a game that is decided late, so I’ll take the points.
Tennessee Titans +8 at Denver Broncos – The public loves the Broncos this week, so that means I will take the Titans plus the points on the road.
New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals – Another team that the public is in love with this week is Arizona. Since when can the Cardinals be trusted laying points to anyone? And they are laying points on the road to boot. I’ll take the Saints plus the points.
Chicago Bears +1 vs. Minnesota Vikings – Count me in among the early believers in Ben Johnson. I don’t know why the Vikings are favored. We don’t even know if J.J. McCarthy is any good. I will take the Bears on Monday night.

NFL Week 1 Betting Tips

When we consider NFL Week 1 games there is an interesting stat to consider that applies to turnovers.

Teams since 2016 that had a double-digit positive turnover margin saw an average decrease of 10.3 in their turnover margin in the following year. Those same teams went from averaging 11.2 wins in their season where they benefited from a lot of turnovers to averaging 9.6 wins in the following season. Only five of the 30 teams to post a +10 or higher turnover margin during that time period stretch did it again the following year.
Conversely, teams that had a double-digit negative turnover margin during that time saw an average increase of 14.5 turnovers in the following year. Those teams went from averaging 4.8 wins to 7.3 in the next season. Only three of the 31 teams to post a -10 or worse turnover margin during this stretch had a -10 margin or more the next year.
The teams to keep an eye on this year that could fall are the San Francisco 49ers (+13) and the Dallas Cowboys. The teams that had a poor turnover margin last season that could improve are the New Orleans Saints (-11), and Indianapolis Colts (-13).

NFL Week 1 Stats

Look Strongly at Underdogs: Week 1 underdogs have historically done well against the spread. You can almost say that underdogs have done well overall in NFL betting, regardless of the week, but in the first week of NFL betting each season the favorites are almost always overvalued.
Public Betting Overreaction: Every single week in NFL betting the public is going to fall in love with certain teams and have a disdain for other teams. In Week 1 the public is heavily backing the Dolphins so that could give some pointspread value to the Colts.
Under Trending in Prime-Time: The public loves to bet the favorite and the over, especially in Prime-Time games. That oftentimes will give some value to the under, so keep that in mind this season with Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday Night NFL games.