NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds & Picks

The Associated Press (AP) has been presenting an Offensive Rookie of the Year award since 1957. While running backs historically dominated the award, recent years have seen a shift toward quarterbacks and wide receivers. The winner is selected by a nationwide panel of 50 media members who regularly cover the NFL. Since 2022, voters rank their top three candidates. A first-place vote is worth five points, a second-place vote is worth three, and a third-place vote is worth one. The player with the most total points wins. Ballots are cast at the end of the regular season, meaning postseason performance does not impact the results.

What Is the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award?

The Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) is an annual award given to the top first-year offensive player in the league. For the 2025 season, the winner will be officially announced at the 15th Annual NFL Honors on Thursday, February 5, 2026.

While the official AP award is pending, Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is the heavy favorite for the offensive rookie of the year award after being named the 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year by the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA) on January 20, 2026.

The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award differs from other honors, such as Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) or MVP, due to its specific eligibility, historical trends, and recent shift in voting structure.

Unlike OPOY or MVP, which players can win multiple times, OROY is a "once-in-a-career" award limited to a player's first professional season.

Current NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Tetairoa McMillan is the heavy NFL betting favorite to win the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award, with consensus odds as short as -10,000 following the announcement of the five official finalists on January 22, 2026. He is widely expected to secure the honor at the NFL Honors ceremony on February 5, 2026.

OROY Odds

• Tetairoa McMillan -1000
• TreVeyon Henderson +900
• Jaxson Dart +1400
• Tyler Shough +1400
• All Other Players +12000 or Higher

Top Contenders for Offensive Rookie of the Year

Tetairoa McMillan is a standout wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers, widely considered the favorite to win the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Selected No. 8 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, McMillan established himself as a premier young playmaker by becoming the first rookie in Panthers’ history to record a 1,000-yard receiving season.

McMillan has already secured several major rookie OROY odds honors following his breakout debut:

• PFWA Rookie of the Year: Named the league's top overall rookie by the Pro Football Writers of America.
• PFWA Offensive Rookie of the Year: Voted the top offensive newcomer, joining Cam Newton as the only Panthers to receive this honor.
• PFF Rookie of the Year: Recognized as the highest-impact newcomer across all positions by Pro Football Focus, earning a 0.56 Wins Above Average (WAA) metric.
• AP OROY Finalist: One of five finalists alongside Jaxson Dart, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, and Tyler Shough.

The Jaydon Blue Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign was unrealistic. He is not a finalist for the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award and will not win the honor. While the Dallas Cowboys running back made a bold preseason prediction that he would win the award, his limited regular-season production and frequent status as a healthy scratch kept him out of the official conversation.

How Performance Impacts Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

For the 2025 NFL season, performance metrics—specifically volume and efficiency—have a direct and immediate impact on Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) odds. The market has heavily rewarded players who maintained consistent production throughout a full 17-game schedule, compared with those with smaller, high-efficiency sample sizes.

2025 OROY Odds Performance Drivers

• Statistical Volume (The "1,000-Yard" Threshold): Tetairoa McMillan solidified his status as a -10,000 favorite primarily by leading all rookies with 1,014 receiving yards. Crossing the 1,000-yard mark is a critical benchmark that historically triggers significant odds shortening for non-quarterbacks.

• Positional Leverage: While a quarterback has won the award in four of the last six seasons, the lack of a dominant, full-season rookie QB in 2025 allowed high-volume receivers to overtake the market. Jaxson Dart (+2700) remained a contender through mid-season, but a late-season "clunker" caused his odds to fade as he fell behind McMillan's statistical consistency.

• Recency and Primetime Impact: TreVeyon Henderson saw one of the largest odds shifts of the season, moving from +10,000 to +185 in December following a surge in rushing production, before eventually settling as a longshot (+40,000) following a late-season injury.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Winners & Trends

It is a smart project to consider who won the offensive rookie of the year award in past years to identify trends for the future. Historically, winners are almost exclusively first-round draft picks; 18 of the last 21 winners were selected in the first round. The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award has shifted from being dominated by running backs to a competition primarily between quarterbacks and wide receivers.

Running backs won 40 of the first 67 OROY awards. However, quarterbacks and wide receivers have won seven of the last eight years, reflecting the league's shift toward passing offenses.

Best Value Picks Based on Current Odds

For the 2025-26 NFL season, Tetairoa McMillan is the prohibitive favorite in NFL betting to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year NFL (OROY) award, with consensus closing odds as steep as -1000 to -10000 as of early February 2026. Betting markets generally close once the regular season ends and the finalists are announced, as the winner has already been voted on and will be revealed at the NFL Honors on February 5, 2026.

The "value" in this market has largely disappeared as McMillan's probability of winning is estimated at over 93% by major sportsbooks.

McMillan is considered the "locked-in" winner primarily because he has already swept several major precursor awards. Quarterbacks have won four of the last six OROY awards. However, wide receivers have surged recently, with Garrett Wilson (2022) and Ja'Marr Chase (2021) winning. McMillan looks to continue this trend as the first 1,000-yard rookie receiver this season.

When to Bet NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

The best time to bet on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) depends on your risk tolerance. Still, historical data from the 2025-2026 cycle suggests that the opening of the season or late October typically offers the highest potential value.

• Pre-Season (Maximum Value): Betting before Week 1 allows you to catch "sleepers" at their longest odds. For example, the 2025 favorite, Tetairoa McMillan, opened at +1200 to +1300. Longshots like Tyler Shough opened as high as +6000 before closing near +250.

• The "Mid-Season Reassessment" (Late October): By late October, the field narrows, and you can identify high-usage players who are outperforming their preseason projections.

• The Second-Half Surge (December): This window is for "chasing the momentum." TreVeyon Henderson skyrocketed from a +10000 longshot in November to a +185 favorite by mid-December during a hot streak.