The NFL Coach of the Year award is presented after the Super Bowl to the pro football coach who is believed to have done the best job during the season that just ended. Like any subjective award, the NFL Coach of the Year award is largely based on media narratives and trends on X.com. During the season, just like in the NFL standings, there will be considerable and frequent fluctuation of who the favorite is to win the award.
Ironically, the NFL Coach of the Year winner is hardly ever the championship-winning coach. Instead, it will go to the coach who took over a team with a bad record from the previous season and significantly improved the club, leading to a noticeable rebound.
What Is the NFL Coach of the Year Award?
The NFL Coach of the Year award is in multiple forms. The Associated Press (AP), Sporting News, and the Maxwell Football Club are the primary organizations that independently award the honor to the NFL coach of their choice. The AP is usually referred to as the standard.
In 2024, the Associated Press named Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings the NFL Coach of the Year. So too did Pro Football Weekly go with O’Connell. Meanwhile, the Greasy Neale Award from the Maxwell Football Club went to Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills.
The great irony of the NFL Coach of the Year Award is that it rarely goes to the championship coach. Instead, it goes to a coach who is perceived to have gotten the most out of the least and exceeded preseason expectations for the future market. Many Hall of Fame coaches have the fewest Coach of the Year awards. Their consistent success worked against them because it produced no surprises.
Current NFL Coach of the Year Odds
- Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots -250
- Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks +700
- Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars +750
- Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears +1100
- Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams +4000
- All Other Coaches +6600 or Higher
How NFL Coach of the Year Odds Are Shaped
Like all other forms of gambling, public perception, branding, and name recognition are major factors shaping the NFL Coach of the Year odds.
For 2025, three outstanding examples of how the NFL Coach of the Year odds are shaped are Mike Vrabel, Liam Coen, and Ben Johnson. In all three cases, these coaches took over horrendous teams from the 2024 season and led them to division championships.
Coaches like Sean McVay, Mike Macdonald, and Jim Harbaugh had already achieved success with their teams. Thus, their candidacy prospects are not as good, given their previous success and strong performances in 2025.
The greatest coach in NFL history, Vince Lombardi, the man whose name is on the Super Bowl trophy, won Coach of the Year only one time from the AP and once from the Sporting News when he had his initial success with the Green Bay Packers. In essence, Lombardi was punished for his five NFL championships and two Super Bowl titles from that point forward for repeating his success.
Chuck Noll won four Super Bowls with the Pittsburgh Steelers, yet was never named AP Coach of the Year.
Bill Walsh created the modern football offense and led the San Francisco 49ers to their first three Super Bowl titles, while setting them up for a fourth, and yet won the award only once.
Coaches of established winners do not earn Coach of the Year honors at nearly the same rate as lesser coaches who find success at perennial losers.
NFL Coach of the Year Winners & Patterns
The recent pattern of NFL Coach of the Year winners is that they coached teams that had poor seasons in the previous year. Andy Reid won three Super Bowls with the Kansas City Chiefs but was never named the AP NFL Coach of the Year. That is because his success was not a surprise but an expectation. In 2025, Liam Coen, Mike Vrabel, and Ben Johnson were not expected to succeed, but they are now the favorites for the award after exceeding expectations.
Let’s now take a look at patterns for how the NFL Coach of the Year works with previous winners.
Matt Nagy – 2018 Chicago Bears
In 2018, Matt Nagy took over the Chicago Bears after the team went 5-11 in 2017. Nagy arrived highly credentialed, having served as offensive coordinator under Andy Reid with the Kansas City Chiefs. He had immediate success with the Bears, going 12-4 in his first season, and was celebrated as the franchise's savior. As it turned out, Nagy never had another winning season and was fired after three underwhelming campaigns. He has never been a head coach again. Nagy was a classic flash in the pan, but that is all that is necessary to win the NFL Coach of the Year award. Now it is reasonable to wonder if the same fate awaits current Bears head coach Ben Johnson.
Brian Daboll – 2022 New York Giants
In a similar way to Nagy, Brian Daboll inherited a New York Giants team that went 4-13 in 2021. Daboll made an immediate impact by going 9-7-1 in his first season and winning a road playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings. However, it was all downhill from there, as Daboll went 6-11 in 2023 and 3-14 in 2024 before being fired in midseason 2025. Daboll’s tremendous rookie season got his much-maligned quarterback, Daniel Jones, a massive new contract, but that success proved to be fool’s gold. The Daboll story is a classic example of how the NFL Coach of the Year award works. It’s not based on how great a coach is overall, but simply in one season in which lightning can strike.
John Harbaugh – 2019 Baltimore Ravens
Sometimes, an established winning coach with strong credentials can win Coach of the Year honors. In 2019, John Harbaugh led the Baltimore Ravens to a 14-2 season that came on the heels of a 10-6 wild card campaign in 2018. Harbaugh was a proven, consistent winner with the Ravens, leading them to the Super Bowl in 2012. But the dominant fashion in which his Ravens performed, and the lack of a serious surprise team or coach anywhere else, helped land him the honors. Harbaugh’s triumph was a classic case of timing being everything, and of how a team can get a coach over the top for Coach of the Year honors when it reaches a rare level of dominance.
Best Value Picks Based on Current Odds
Based on current odds, there isn't much value to be found, as the regular season is over and there are no more surprises. Mike Vrabel would have been an outstanding pick in August when expectations for the New England Patriots were low.
The same is the case for Liam Coen of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Ben Johnson of the Chicago Bears. You can currently get better odds of Mike Macdonald of the Seattle Seahawks, Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams, and Jim Harbaugh of the Los Angeles Chargers, but based on how the NFL Coach of the Year award has been bestowed in previous years, those are unrealistic choices. The key to finding betting value is to detect the surprise teams and coaches as far in advance as possible.
When to Bet NFL Coach of the Year
The trick to timing a bet for NFL Coach of the Year is early on. Mike Vrabel and the Patriots demonstrated their ability early in the season, but doubts persisted about their sustainability; thus, there was a window to find value. Liam Coen and the Jaguars had a similar pattern to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Ben Johnson and the Bears came on late, so there was an opportunity to jump on board in early December when Chicago began to rally as the rest of the NFC North faltered.
Frequently Asked Questions
Although quite rare, a coach does not have to take his team to the playoffs, but he must produce significant improvement over the prior season. Still, a playoff run increases the chances of winning the award.
