NFL Awards Odds 2026: Favorites, Lines & Picks

Following the conclusion of the 2025 regular season and heading into the NFL Honors ceremony on February 5, 2026, betting markets have largely solidified for the major awards. Matthew Stafford has reclaimed the status of betting favorite for MVP after a strong finish to the season, while Mike Vrabel leads the race for Coach of the Year following New England's dramatic turnaround.

The official NFL awards are primarily the eight honors voted on by The Associated Press (AP), which are announced annually during the NFL Honors ceremony. These are complemented by several other prestigious awards recognizing community service, sportsmanship, and on-field milestones.

Betting on the NFL awards is similar to wagering on individual prop bets or entertainment awards.

How to Bet on NFL Awards

NFL futures betting involves wagering on outcomes that will be decided at a later date, typically over an entire season or tournament, rather than on a single game. These bets are often placed during the offseason or early in the year, and they allow bettors to lock in odds that can shift significantly as the season progresses.

In NFL betting, implied probability is a percentage that reflects the likelihood of an outcome occurring based on the odds set by a sportsbook. It converts American moneyline odds—which indicate how much you must bet to win $100—into a simple win-percentage chance.

NFL award betting is a subcategory of futures markets and differs from game-based markets.

Current NFL Awards Odds and Favorites

For the 2025-2026 NFL season, the favorites and odds for the major AP awards have solidified following the conclusion of the regular season. Finalists for these honors were officially announced on January 22, 2026. The winners will be revealed during the NFL Honors ceremony on Thursday, February 5, 2026.

NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) Odds

• Matthew Stafford -750
• Drake Maye +600
• All Other Players +50000 or Higher

Matthew Stafford is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2025 NFL MVP award, with odds as short as -450 to -900 at major sportsbooks following the announcement of the five finalists on January 22, 2026. He is followed by Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is the only other candidate considered to have a realistic chance to win

Offensive Player of the Year Odds

• Jaxon Smith Njigba -1100
• Puke Nacua +750
• All Other Players +3000 or Higher

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the heavy favorite to win the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, with odds as short as -1100 to -3000 as of early February 2026. Following the announcement of the five finalists on January 22, 2026, Smith-Njigba is widely expected to secure the honor.

Defensive Player of the Year Odds

• Myles Garrett -50000
• All Other Players 17500 or Higher

Myles Garrett is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award, with consensus odds reaching as high as -50000 following the announcement of the five finalists on January 22, 2026.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

• Tetairoa McMillan -1000
• TreVeyon Henderson +900
• Jaxson Dart +1400
• Tyler Shough +1400
• All Other Players +12000 or Higher

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the heavy NFL betting favorite to win the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, with odds as short as -1000 to -3000 as of early February 2026.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

• Carson Schwesinger -550
• James Pearce Jr +370
• Nick Emmanwori +1400
• All Other Players +20000 or Higher

Carson Schwesinger is the heavy favorite to win the 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) award, with consensus odds as short as -1100 to -7000 following the announcement of the five finalists on January 22, 2026. Schwesinger is widely expected to be named the winner.

NFL Coach of the Year Odds

• Mike Vrabel -400
• Mike Macdonald +450
• Liam Coen +950
• Sean Payton +500
• Ben Johnson +10000
• All Other Coaches +30000 or Higher

Mike Vrabel is the heavy favorite to win the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year award, with odds reaching as short as -450 as of early February 2026. Vrabel led the New England Patriots from a 4-13 record the previous year to an AFC-best 14-3 mark in his first season with the team.

How NFL Awards Odds Are Calculated

NFL awards odds are calculated through a blend of statistical analysis, predictive modeling, and market risk management. Oddsmakers use sophisticated algorithms and "power ratings" to establish initial lines.

Historical Trend models give heavy weight to position (e.g., QBs winning MVP) and team success (MVPs usually come from teams with 12+ wins).

Advanced Metrics are modern metrics that go beyond basic box scores, including EPA (Expected Points Added), CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), and efficiency ratings.

Factors That Influence NFL Awards Betting Odds

For the 2025 NFL season, betting odds for major awards are influenced by a combination of statistical dominance, team success, and human-driven narratives.

Player Statistics and Advanced Metrics

For the 2025 NFL regular season, player awards were primarily influenced by historic passing and receiving performances from the Los Angeles Rams and a record-breaking defensive campaign in Cleveland. Finalists were selected based on the following key statistics and advanced metrics.

Team Record and Playoff Positioning

For the 2025 NFL awards, team record and playoff seeding are primary factors because they define the "success" narrative that voters prioritize. While individual statistics are essential, the voters have historically favored candidates from winning teams that have secured high seeds.

Injuries, Schedule, and Market Movement

For the 2025 NFL season, injuries, strength of schedule, and market movements significantly shifted the landscape leading up to the NFL Honors. These factors act as primary levers for oddsmakers to adjust valuations and for voters to define a player's "value."

Injuries are the most immediate cause of extreme odds volatility, often removing favorites from the board entirely. Betting markets for awards are highly sensitive to "sharp" action and the timing of the season.

Key Takeaways on NFL Awards Odds

The primary takeaway for the 2025-26 NFL Awards is the emergence of heavy, near-consensus favorites across almost every major category following the announcement of the five finalists on January 22, 2026. The winners will be officially revealed at the 15th NFL Honors ceremony on February 5, 2026, hosted by Jon Hamm at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco