NCAA First Round Preview: Utah State vs. Villanova Betting Tips

Historically the first round matchups between the No.8 and No. 9 seeds have been close. The West Region contest between Utah State and Villanova is expected to fall in line with the opening March Madness odds of Utah State -1.5 the smallest in the region.

Utah State won the Mountain West regular season and tournament title and is the only conference member to go dancing. The Aggies won and covered all three MW tournament games and are 28-6 overall. Villanova is coming off a loss to last-place Georgetown in its first Big East tournament game.

Utah State vs. Villanova Preview

The first round NCAA Tournament game between the 9-seed Utah State Aggies and 8-seed Villanova Wildcats will tipoff at approximately 4:10 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20, 2026. The game will be played at Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA and will air on TNT.

Public Betting Odds Factors

• The game has to be played, but being familiar with the venue should mean something, right? The Aggies have played at the host site just about every season since it is the home venue of fellow MWC member San Diego State. USU’s most recent visit didn’t go so well, though, resulting in an 89-72 setback on Feb. 25.
• A late season swoon put Utah State’s bid for a MWC title in jeopardy. They lost 3 of 4 games before taking out New Mexico in the regular season finale. Behind conference player of the year Mason Falslev the Aggies won and covered all 3 tournament games, beating the 3 teams they lost to at the end of the regular season.
• Falslev isn’t a prolific scorer but he does a little bit of everything on the court at a high level. He averages 16.1 points and also leads the team in rebounding and steals and is second in assists while playing 32 minutes a game.
• Falslev and MWC Sixth Man of the Year Karson Templin return looking for a better result in USU’s fourth straight trip to the dance. They lost to UCLA last year 72-47 as the No. 10 seed. Falslev had 17 points but was 6 of 17 from the field and the Aggies shot 30 percent as a team.
• Villanova went 24-8 and is coming off a disappointing 78-64 loss to Georgetown in the Big East tournament. The Wildcats finished third in the Big East at 15-5 with 4 of their losses to St. John’s and UConn, the teams that finished ahead of them.
• Led by Tyler Perkins, Nova boasts a guard-heavy attack showing difficulty at times against teams that defend the perimeter with length. They’ve also had trouble against the college basketball betting line going 2-5 ATS in their last 7 outings.

Utah State vs. Villanova Predictions

• Utah State led the MWC in a number of key offensive statistical categories. The Aggies average 82.5 points and collectively shoot 50 percent from the field. MJ Collins averages 17.6 points and 7 players average more than 6.5 points. The Aggies also rank among the top 30 in offensive efficiency making them tough to defend.
• Depth is an issue for Villanova. They have a talented starting 5 and 6 players averaging more than 9.0 points. But that’s it. Unless a role player or two steps up, the Cats will have to rely on a slim rotation against a team that liberally uses its bench. 

Utah State vs. Villanova Betting Tips

• The Aggies got hot at the MWC tournament beating San Diego State, Nevada and UNLV by a combined 44 points and earning payouts in each game.
• The OVER is 8-4 in Utah State’s last 12 games.
• The loss to Georgetown came out of nowhere. Nova had been good against teams at an equal level with 5 of their losses to teams that were ranked among the top 15 at the time. The Cats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games but 19-13 ATS overall.

Utah State vs. Villanova Head to Head and Key Stats

• Utah State is making its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance and 12th since 2002. They lost in the first round 9 times in their previous 11 trips.
• Back in the Tournament for the first time in 4 years, Villanova brings a first-round winning streak of 8 games into this matchup. They last dropped an opening contest in 2013 as the No. 9 seed.
• The teams have met just once way back in 1960 with the Aggies getting a 73-72 overtime win in the second round of the NIT.