NASCAR: Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks & Preview
The third round of the new NASCAR Cup Series in-season challenge takes place this weekend from California wine country with the running of the Toyota / Save Mart 350 from Sonoma Raceway. This is the 20th race of the season and the third on a designated road course. The previous road course race took place in Mexico last month with Shane van Gisbergen winning the pole and the race. Showing his dominance with wins on road courses in Mexico and last week in Chicago, van Gisbergen opened as the clear favorite on the NASCAR betting odds. Another experienced road racer, Kyle Larson won last year’s race, his second victory at Sonoma in four years. Larson hit the board as the second betting choice.
Toyota / Save Mart 350 Overview
The NASCAR Cup Series Toyota / Save Mart 350 is scheduled to be run on Sunday, July 13 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, CA. The race will be televised on TNT. Fresh off his second win in three tries at the Grant Park 165 in Chicago last week, which was also his second win of the Cup Series season, van Gisbergen is the favorite. His short odds, though, are giving other talented race course drivers decent value at a higher price. Oddsmakers see this as a two-man race with several other drivers sitting in the second tier of favorites. Eight drivers opened with odds between 11/1 and 20/1. One potential sleeper is veteran Kyle Busch, who along with Larson has two wins at Sonoma Speedway. Another checkered flag for either driver puts them in elite company. Only three drivers have won this race at least three times in their careers.
Toyota / Save Mart 350 Betting Odds
Shane Van Gisbergen+131
Kyle Larson+553
TY Gibbs+1107
Michael McDowell+1107
William Byron+1208
Chris Buescher+1397
Chase Elliott+1236
Tyler Reddick+1339
Christopher Bell+1429
AJ Allmendinger+1807
Ross Chastain+2247
Kyle Busch+2247
Ryan Blaney+2553
Chase Briscoe+2860
Alex Bowman+2860
Joey Logano+4599
Daniel Suarez+4355
All other drivers +5000 or higher
Toyota / Save Mart 350 Top Contenders
Kyle Busch +2247
It’s hard to overlook what Busch has done at Sonoma giving plenty of value to his current price. The second of his two wins took place a decade ago, which is why he’s fallen from the top of the odds board. In his eight starts here since that last victory, Busch has placed among the top 5 times with runner-up showings in 2019 and 2023. Busch also has top 5s in two of three road/street course races this season. Busch is a true sleeper with the emergence of SVG and he’s laying a good price.
Ross Chastain +2247
Kind of in the same boat as Busch but without the history of success at Sonoma is Chastain making him more of a longshot. He is coming off a top 10 finish in Chicago and has enjoyed some success on road courses with a past win under his belt. Chastain also had a win in Charlotte and a runner up in Texas in May. He finished among the top 10 in each of his last four starts at Sonoma with a best of fifth in last year’s edition.
Kyle Larson +553
Larson is looking to become the first repeat winner at Sonoma since Martin Truex Jr. went back to back in 2018 and 2019, and he has a strong history on this course and road courses in general. Larson earned the pole in five straight Sonoma races with that streak ending in 2023. Larson has three wins this season matching Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin for the most, and he’s finished among the top 5 a total of nine times in 19 starts.
Shane Van Gisbergen +131
Displaying a clear dominance on road/street courses has positioned van Gisbergen as the clear favorite. It’s cliché to bet the favorite, but barring any major mishaps SVG will be in contention. There isn’t much middle ground with his wins in Mexico City and Chicago sandwiched around a 31st at Pocono and 24 in Atlanta. Those wins are among only three top 10s in 19 starts, so despite his success on road courses I think he’s overvalued with his short price.
Toyota / Save Mart 350 Predictions
While positioned among the favorites, drivers Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell are likely more appealing in the top 5 market. They’ve both had good starts at Sonoma in the past and could be in the running, but they're not quite the level of Larson and SVG on a road course. Despite his prowess on similar tracks SVG doesn’t have the experience at Sonoma leaving room for Larson or Busch to creep up the leaderboard.
