MLB Preview: Mets at Diamondbacks Odds

The New York Mets will attempt to break out of an early season slump when they head to the Arizona desert for Saturday’s Baseball Night in America on FOX. A 12-game losing streak is behind them, but the Mets haven’t fully recovered.

The Diamondbacks are back home after a 6-game road trip produced just one victory. Home cooking was good medicine as the DBacks ended a 4-game slide with 9-0 pasting of Pittsburgh on Tuesday brought them back to .500.

Mets at Diamondbacks Game Preview

The middle game of a 3-game set between the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks is scheduled to be played on Saturday, May 9, 2026 at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ. First pitch is slated for 7:15 p.m. ET with television coverage provided by FOX.

• Saturday’s probable starter Clay Holmes has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal start for the Mets. Holmes won his second straight start Sunday against the Angels improving to 4-2 by allowing one run and four hits in 6.2 innings. It was his third straight quality start and fourth in seven games.

• The 5-1 win over the Angels was just the 12th of the season for the Mets with five of them coming in games started by Holmes.

• Sporting the 5th lowest ERA in the majors, Holmes anchors a pitching staff that ranks among the top 10 in ERA, WHIP and OBA. The Mets also have the eighth best bullpen ERA but have just four saves in nine chances.

• Clearly the offense, or lack thereof, has been the biggest issue for the Mets. They rank in the bottom two in average, OBP and slugging while producing just 3.5 runs per game. They cashed the UNDER 19 times on the MLB betting line with three pushes in their first 35 games.

• The DBacks are trying to find their footing as the season progresses. They were 13-8 following a win over Toronto on Apr. 18 then proceeded to lose nine of their next 12 to fall a game below .500. That skid ended with a 9-0 win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

• Despite their big win on Tuesday and getting back to .500, the DBacks boast one of the worst run differentials in the majors at minus-22. A pitching staff that boasts the highest ERA in the NL at 4.92 is a big reason for the discrepancy.

• Saturday’s probable starter Merrill Kelly hasn’t helped the situation. In four starts Kelly has a 9.95 ERA and 2.32 WHIP in 19 innings. He’s surrendered six home runs with at least one in each of his starts.

Mets at Diamondbacks Predictions

• Facing a struggling starter in a hitters park could be the recipe New York’s offense needs to show some life. However injuries have several key players on the bench severely impacting their run scoring ability. Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert and Jorge Polanco are all on the IL leaving the Mets scratching for runs.

• Holmes is one of the top starters in baseball. The former reliever hadn’t started since his rookie season in 2018 before joining the Mets last year. He’s been a stud in 2026 boasting the fifth-best ERA in the majors at 1.69 with a 0.98 WHIP across 42.2 innings. The Mets are 5-2 in games started by Holmes with the UNDER 4-2-1.

Mets at Diamondbacks Betting Tips

• The Mets showed a little spark on this 9-game road trip winning three of the first four while cashing the UNDER against the MLB spread in every game.

• Playing UNDER the total in 59.4 percent of their first 35 games has New York is the MLB leader in that category.

• Kelly has allowed 19 earned runs in his last three starts and Arizona has surrendered a total of 32 runs losing all three games.

Mets at Diamondbacks Head to Head and Key Stats

• Arizona won the final 2 games of the series last month in New York starting the Mets on a 12-game losing streak.

• The teams have split the last 12 games with the UNDER 6-5-1.

• New York has won 4 of the last 6 games in Arizona, cashing the UNDER in the last 4.

• Kelly’s last 2 starts against the Mets resulted in Arizona losses by a combined 18-2 score.