After playing their first four games at home and having a bye last week, the Miami Hurricanes hit the road for the first time but stay in Florida for their ACC opener against the Florida State Seminoles in a top 20 battle. The Noles look to rebound after getting upset by Virginia last week. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 4 from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee and will air on ABC.
Miami at Florida State Preview
The Hurricanes were idle last week giving them additional time to prepare for the rivalry game with hopes of extending their season and series winning streaks. For the second straight season the Canes opened with four straight wins, including a season-opening triumph over Notre Dame and an impressive Week 4 decision over Florida in another in-state rivalry game.
Led by Carson Beck the offense has been good averaging almost 37 points and 450 yards a game. Beck is among the national leaders completing 73.2 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns. And the Canes have been strong on defense allowing just 11.5 points and 244.5 yards per game to rank among the top 15 in those categories. Mark Fletcher is third in the ACC with 388 rushing yards adding five TDs.
- The Canes are 3-1 SU and against the college football odds in their last four road games after a bye.
- Their two most recent true road games ended in defeat at Georgia Tech and Syracuse last season when Miami was favored by at least 9 points.
- Over the last three games the Canes allowed an average of 7.3 points and overall they lead the ACC allowing 11.5 points per game.
FSU fell into the trap preventing this contest from being a top 10 matchup of undefeated teams. Upsetting Alabama in the opener then destroying Texas AM-Commerce and Kent State by a combined score of 143-13 was the perfect setup. The Noles had to play pesky Virginia last week and the Cavs prevailed 46-38 in double overtime. The offense continued to operate at a high level but the defense was exposed and turnovers were a factor.
Aided by their two blowout wins the Noles are the national leader in total offense and points per game. They didn’t hit their averages against UVA but the Noles weren’t far off scoring 38 points and amassing 514 total yards. Tommy Castellanos leads the offense throwing for 848 yards with 217 rushing yards and four TDs.
- FSU has amassed more than 500 total yards in each of its last three games averaging 8.8 yards per play.
- In their last 8 games against nationally ranked opponents the Noles are 4-4 SU.
- Though they surrender an average of more than 394 yards per game FSU ranks 7th nationally in scoring defense at 10 points per game.
- FSU has converted 58.8 percent of third downs to rank 6th nationally.
Miami at Florida State Predictions
FSU can certainly move the ball but their season numbers were skewed in games against overmatched opponents. UVA needed the help of three turnovers and overtime to inflate their score against the Noles. This has me leaning toward the UNDER on the point total when things get serious in rivalries.
Miami at Florida State Betting Tips
- Miami opened as a 5-point favorite with a moneyline price of -202.
- FSU is 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog. One of those wins was against Miami in 2021.
- The Noles came in at +176 on the moneyline.
- The total surfaced at 54, the sixth straight game at 50+ with the UNDER 4-1 in the previous five contests.
Miami at Florida State Head to Head and Key Stats
- Miami’s 36-24 win last year ended a 3-game skid in the series.
- This is the first time since 2016 that both teams are nationally ranked at game time.
- The college football betting line of 5-points is the smallest in the last four games.
- The teams have played UNDER the closing total in four straight games and in 8 of the last 10.
- FSU has won two in a row and five of the last six games in the series at home.
