The Alabama Crimson Tide overcame their Week 1 loss to Florida State and take a 7-game winning streak into their Week 11 matchup with the LSU Tigers, who will play their first game since firing Brian Kelly following a disastrous loss to Texas A&M. The SEC showdown takes place on Saturday, November 8 from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be televised on ABC.
LSU at Alabama Preview
Even when they started the season with four wins the Tigers didn’t look right. The season opener against Clemson doesn’t look so good now and LSU struggled to put away Louisiana Tech. A 49-25 loss to Texas A&M two weeks ago when the Tigers surrendered 35 points in the second half was their third in four games and the last straw for Kelly.
It’s not like LSU is losing to bottom-feeders with Texas A&M (8-0), Ole Miss (8-1) and Vanderbilt (7-2) a combined 23-3 this season. And the latter two were one-score games. Still, to be considered a threat winning a few of those is a must. The Tigers failed to cover in all three and are just 1-4 against the college football odds in their last five outings.
- A preseason Heisman candidate, Garrett Nussmeier has struggled and the offense faltered. LSU scored more than 25 points in a game just once, in a 56-10 win over FCS SE Louisiana.
- Nussmeier has thrown for 1,806 yards with 12 TDs, well off his pace from a season ago when he was second in the SEC in passing yards and TDs.
- The Tigers rank in the bottom third of FBS in total yards and points per game.
- After giving up 10 points or less to five of their first six opponents and allowing an average of 11.8 points per game, the Tigers surrendered a total of 80 points in their last two games.
Alabama didn’t let their season-opening loss define them instead responding with seven straight victories going 5-1-1 ATS. Four of those wins came against ranked opponents in consecutive weeks with the Tide handing Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri their first loss of the season.
After a rough opener when he completed just 53.5 percent of his passes against FSU, Ty Simpson has blossomed into a Heisman Trophy candidate. He’s completing 67.8 percent of his passes with his 20 TD strikes second in the SEC and tied for 12th nationally. The Tide has a top 20 pass offense but is in the middle of the pack nationally in total yards.
- Since giving up a season-high 31 to FSU in the opener, Bama’s defense has allowed an average of 16.4 points during its winning streak.
- Bama leads the SEC and is 8th nationally in red zone defense allowing points on 70 percent of opponent drives.
- With leading rusher Jam Miller (308 yds) banged up Alabama is 114th nationally in run offense averaging just 118.9 yards per contest.
LSU at Alabama Predictions
Laying double digits at home hasn’t scared Bama. Dating back to the 2021 season they’ve been favored by at least 10 points on 26 occasions and won every game outright. They also covered the spread in the last six such games, which included three SEC foes and a Big Ten opponent. LSU doesn’t have enough firepower to hang, giving value to Bama minus the points.
LSU at Alabama Betting Tips
- Alabama opened with a college football point spread of -10 and -363 on the moneyline.
- The Tigers have been a double-digit road dog four times over the last eight seasons earning payouts in all four and winning outright twice.
- LSU is +304 on the moneyline.
- The total of 48.5 is the lowest in a series matchup since 2017.
- In LSU games that closed with a lower total the UNDER is 3-0.
LSU at Alabama Head to Head and Key Stats
- Alabama has dominated the series over the last decade winning two straight games, four of five and eight of the last 10 meetings. The Tide has payouts in the last two matchups and is 6-4 ATS in the last 10.
- Bama has won five of the last six meetings in Tuscaloosa with the only loss to LSU’s 2019 undefeated national championship squad.
- The teams have gone OVER the total in four of the last six encounters.
- The Tide won the last two games by an average of 21.5 points
