Louisville vs Baylor NCAAB Picks & Preview

After spending years as one of the top teams in the Big 12 Baylor is in an unfamiliar position. Near the bottom of the conference standings the Bears will take a break from league play for a non-conference showdown with Louisville looking to end a 2-game losing streak.

No. 24 Louisville is coming off an offensive explosion routing NC State 118-77 for its 4th straight win and 6th in the last 7 games where they scored at least 100 points twice. Mikel Brown Jr. set an ACC freshman single-game record with 45 points against the Pack.

Louisville vs. Baylor Preview

The second ever meeting between the Louisville Cardinals and Baylor Bears goes down on Saturday, February 14, 2026 from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, TX. Tipoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET with the game airing on ESPN.

Public Betting Odds Factors

• The Cardinals displayed their ability to score the basketball last time out in a 118-77 win over NC State. Shooting 60 percent from the field and reaching triple digits with 5 ½ minutes left are the exceptions, but the Cards have been good all season.

• Ranked among the top 20 in points per game with an average of 87.1 per game, the Cardinals have played against inflated over/under numbers. They did cash the OVER on the college basketball spread in their last 2 games, but overall the UNDER is 14-10.

• While 11 of the 14 who played against NC State scored, the team’s offensive leaders were at the forefront. Brown Jr. was deadly hitting 14 of 23 shots, including 10 of 16 3-pointers, to set the ACC frosh record and match the program record for points in a game with 46.

• It appears as though Brown Jr. is rounding into form after a lengthy injury absence. He’s been up and down in 6 games since returning, but the hope is that he continues his torrid pace set against the Wolfpack. Considered a top NBA prospect, Brown Jr. averages 17.3 points and 5.1 assists.

• Not to be outdone, the ACC’s 7th leading scorer Ryan Conwell added 31 points in 29 minutes hitting 5 of 6 3-pointers and 10 of 14 shots overall. That comes off a 5-game stretch where Conwell failed to score more than 18 points.

• Baylor’s run of 7 straight 20-win seasons is in serious jeopardy. After starting the campaign 10-2 they’ve gone just 3-9 in league play dropping their last 2 and 6 of 8. Maybe it’s a good thing they have a non-conference opponent on Saturday.

• Playing ranked foes hasn’t been ideal for the Bears. They are winless in 6 tries against them this season while going 1-5 on the NCAA basketball spread in those games.

Louisville vs. Baylor Predictions

• This isn’t a good matchup for Baylor, which hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent and has yielded more than 90 points 3 times in its last 7 games. Their perimeter defense has lagged allowing opposing guards to go off. That’s a good sign for Louisville’s Brown Jr., who just torched NC State.

• Baylor is 10-2 against non-conference opponents and has had success recently in the Metroplex winning their last 5, including over No. 16 Arkansas last season in Dallas.

Louisville vs. Baylor Betting Tips

• Getting the cash hasn’t been a strong suit for Louisville since the start of the year going 3-8 against the college basketball point spread. The Cards are 2-0 SU and ATS in their neutral site games.

• Over their last 8 games the Bears are 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. They’ve also played UNDER the closing total in 4 of their last 5 games.

• With a record of 13-11 the Bears are on pace to have their fewest wins since the 2010-11 season.

Louisville vs. Baylor Head to Head and Key Stats

• According to Baylor athletics this is just the second meeting between the programs. Baylor was victorious in the first contest, 66-63, in a neutral-site game in the 2016 Battle 4 Atlantis Championship.

• Dating back to last season Baylor has lost 11 straight regular season games and 14 of 15 to ranked opponents. Their last win was at home against Kansas last February. The Bears did beat No. 8 Mississippi State in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.