Liberty vs Mercury WNBA Picks & Odds

WNBA

Battling for the No. 4 seed in the WNBA standings, the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury can settle things on the court in their final matchup of the season on Saturday, August 30 at PHX Arena. The Mercury owns the four-seed just a half-game ahead of the Liberty with the teams playing a game ahead of this contest. With wins in two of the first three meetings a Phoenix victory would give them the tie-break advantage in a head-to-head scenario. Tipoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

Liberty at Mercury WNBA Game Preview

Struggling through a 5-8 stretch without former MVP Breanna Stewart, the Liberty tumbled in the standings. It’s hard to replace someone who averages more than 18 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists. Stewart’s absence was felt on both ends of the floor with four of the losses by double digits and setbacks to each of the three teams eliminated from the postseason – Dallas, Connecticut and Chicago. Over that span New York was 2-10-1 against the WNBA betting line.

With Natasha Cloud expected back for Saturday’s matchup the Liberty will be as close to full strength as they’ve been in awhile. Stewart returned in a win over the Sun on Monday scoring 19 points with five rebounds in the 81-79 decision. Still, New York had to rally in the fourth quarter to barely beat the Sun, failing to cover the spread as a 14-point favorite.

The Liberty are 3-8 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
New York leads the WNBA in free throw percentage and three-point field goal defense.
They are third in the W averaging 85.8 points per game.

Alyssa Thomas has jumped into the MVP conversation with her stellar play this month. Back to back triple-doubles led the Mercury to wins in their last two games. They’ve also won four of five with the only setback in that run to the red-hot Aces. In fact, the Mercury’s only losses this month have been to Las Vegas and Atlanta, the second and third best teams in the W. And six of Thomas’s seven triple-doubles this season have come since the start of August.

Averaging what would be a season career-high 9.3 assists, Thomas leads the league by a lot. She’s also on pace for a career-best with 15.9 points per game while also averaging 9.0 rebounds. Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper have contributed with each averaging more than 15 points per outing. The trio combined for 49 points shooting 51.4 percent from the field in Tuesday’s 92-84 win over the Sparks.

Phoenix ranks among the top 4 in scoring defense, FG percentage and 3-point FG percentage allowed.
The Mercury are sixth averaging 83.2 points.
The Mercury average 8.7 offensive rebounds/game, No. 5 in the WNBA.

Liberty at Mercury WNBA Predictions

Phoenix has been strong against teams below them in the standings and with the regular season winding down they can put some distance between themselves and New York for the coveted No. 4 seed. Climbing higher in the standings is a possibility and this current 3-game homestand is crucial. No player has been hotter than Thomas and she can work her magic against a New York club that’s been unable to cover the point spread all season.

Liberty at Mercury WNBA Betting Tips

New York is 13-23-2 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games.
Phoenix is 20-16-1 ATS overall and 6-3-1 ATS in its last nine games.
The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Phoenix’s last 14 games.
New York is 8-10 in road games, the fewest wins of any team currently in a playoff spot.

Liberty at Mercury WNBA Head-to-Head and Key Stats

The first game this season in the desert was a rather easy 106-91 Phoenix victory with Thomas coming up one rebound short of yet another triple-double. She finished with 17 points and 15 rebounds with Sabally adding a game-high 25 points. The Mercury have won two of three games this year and they are 4-2 ATS in the last six overall meetings. Stewart scored 35 points in the first matchup, but Phoenix held her to 23 total points in the last two head-to-head contests.