Liberty Bowl Odds & Betting Tips | Navy vs Cincinnati Preview

The Navy Midshipmen have already had a successful season with a win over Army in their last game to claim the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy for a second straight year. The season isn’t over yet, though, with the Middies heading to the Liberty Bowl for a showdown with the Cincinnati Bearcats. The game is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday, Jan. 2, 2026 at Liberty Stadium in Memphis, TN on ESPN.

Navy vs. Cincinnati Preview

A lot of things went right for Navy this season. The Middies beat Army in their final regular season game to reach 10 wins for the second straight season and they were one of three teams tied for the AAC regular season championship. However, Navy missed out on a chance for a conference title due to tie-breakers.

Navy leads the nation in rushing averaging 289.3 yards a game. Blake Horvath leads five players who have amassed more than 400 yards on the ground this season with 1,147. Stopping the run doesn’t guarantee victory. The Middies had their second-lowest output in the Army game and scored the winning points on a Horvath TD pass.

Horvath is the key to Navy’s offense accounting for 25 TDs (15 rush, 10 pass).
The Middies don’t throw the ball much but they are efficient. Horvath has completed 60.7 percent of his passes averaging 10.2 yards per attempt. 46 of his 88 completions are to Eli Heidenreich.
Despite their record the Middies have not been a good bet this season failing to cover the college football spread in 7 of their last 9 games.
Navy had allowed more than 30 points in 6 consecutive games before holding Memphis to 17 and Army to 16 in the last 2 outings, cashing the UNDER in both games.

Cincinnati had visions of a Big 12 title game appearance winning 7 games in a row after a season-opening loss to Nebraska. Then the wheels fell off in Week 10 with a 45-14 loss to Utah starting a season closing 4-game slide. The Bearcats also failed to earn a payout on the college football betting line.

Scoring points became an issue at the end of the season. Cincy scored at least 34 points six times during its 7-game winning streak averaging 41.3 points in that stretch. In their last 4 games the Bearcats failed to score more than 24 points while the defense twice allowed 45 points.

Cincy’s chances of winning declined when one of the top QBs in the Big 12 entered the portal and opted out. Brendan Sorsby ranked among the top 5 in numerous categories and will be replaced by Brady Lichtenberg with Samaj Jones also expected to play.
The Bearcats are 13th in the 16-team Big 12 allowing 403.4 yards per game. They are also last in takeaways with just 9 and have a minus-3 turnover margin.
Leading rusher Tawee Walker will likely have an increased work load. Walker has 709 yards and averages nearly 6 yards a carry.

Navy vs. Cincinnati Predictions

The news of Sorsby entering the portal caused a seismic shift on the college football daily lines. The Bearcats opened as a 6.5-point favorite with the line shifting to Navy -7 after the announcement. Navy chooses to run the football and Cincinnati will likely have to with a lack of experience behind center. That gives value to backing the UNDER.

Navy vs. Cincinnati Betting Tips

Navy is listed as a 7-point favorite and at -285 on the college football money lines.
In a huge line swing the Bearcats went from -6.5 to +7 when news of Sorsby opting out hit.
The Middies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when laying points.
Cincy is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last 3 games when catching points.
The total also shifted dropping 3 points to 54.5.
Navy cashed the UNDER in 2 straight games but the OVER is 8-4 on the season.
Navy won its last 3 bowl games and 6 of its last 7.

Navy vs. Cincinnati Head to Head and Key Stats

The teams played 4 times between 2015 and 2022 as members of the AAC with Cincinnati winning the last 3 to even the all-time series at 3-3.
Navy has payouts in the last 2 games and in 3 of 4.
The teams played UNDER the total in each of the last 3 games.
In each of their 3 wins the Bearcats held the Middies to fewer than 200 yards rushing.