The Sunday Wild Card Weekend tripleheader concludes with an AFC matchup between the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Chargers and No. 2 seed New England Patriots. The Pats ended a 3-year playoff drought and go for their first postseason victory since Tom Brady left. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on January 11 from Gillette Stadium with NBC providing television coverage.
Chargers at Patriots Preview
The Chargers were in the race for the AFC West title up until the penultimate weekend of the regular season. A 20-16 loss to the Texans eliminated them and Jim Harbaugh sat several key players, including Justin Herbert in the finale. The Bolts QB needed a rest after getting harassed all season. He was sacked 54 times, the second-most in the NFL.
It was a typical season under Harbaugh with the Chargers using a top-10 defense and strong ground game to win 11 games. And Herbert delivered enough big plays, though the offense sputtered at times behind a line that was weakened by injuries and poor play. Herbert had 3,727 passing yards and 26 TDs, but was intercepted 13 times.
- The Bolts went 5-3 SU on the road but were just 3-5 against the NFL betting odds in those games.
- Herbert’s 13 INT’s were more than he had in the previous 2 seasons combined and were the fourth-most in the NFL.
- The Chargers were tough when it mattered, boasting the 4th best red zone defense and 5th best third-down defense.
- Tony Jefferson and Donte Jackson led the team with 4 picks and the Bolts tied for the third-most interceptions with 19.
The Pats look to continue a magical season that saw them post a 10-game improvement from a season ago and match two other clubs for the best record in the NFL. And they have a beef with the Chargers, who denied them a chance to earn the No. 1 seed. Had LA beaten Denver in Week 18 the Pats would be the top seed based on their 38-10 win over Miami.
After starting the season 1-2 including a loss to the Raiders in the season opener, the Pats won 13 of their last 14 games. They also had a good run at the betting window covering the NFL point spread 11 times in that span. Over their last four games the Pats averaged 34.4 points cashing the OVER in all 5 contests.
- Drake Maye led the NFL in completion percentage while throwing for 4,394 yards and 31 TDs for an offense that ranked 2nd in scoring and 3rd in yards.
- The Pats averaged the second-most yards per play (6.2) and were 6th best on third-down plays.
- All 3 losses were at home where the Pats went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS, and all three were one-score games.
- New England was 4th during the season allowing an average of 18.8 points per game.
Chargers at Patriots Predictions
With chilly conditions expected in Foxboro on Sunday night and two solid defenses going against each other, backing the UNDER is a good play. Making the pick even stronger is that both teams are among the best at preventing big plays. Games tend to get tighter in the playoffs and the teams will also look to run the ball and eliminate turnovers, chewing up the clock.
Chargers at Patriots Betting Tips
- New England hit the board as a 3.5-point favorite with a moneyline price of -192.
- The Pats went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in their 9 home games.
- The Chargers failed to cover the spread in their last 2 games and finished 8-8-1 ATS overall and 3-5 ATS on the road.
- The Bolts were listed at +160 on the NFL moneylines.
- The total surfaced at 46.5.
- The UNDER was 6-3 LA’s last 8 games.
Chargers at Patriots Head to Head and Key Stats
- Both franchises were charter members of the AFL playing 20 times between 1960 and 1969.
- The Chargers won the last 2 meetings by a combined score of 46-7 with both games taking place in New England.
- Between 2010 and 2021 the teams met 8 times with the Pats winning and covering every time. Included in that run was a Divisional Round playoff matchup in the 2018 campaign.
- Herbert got the better of Maye in their first head to head confrontation throwing for 281 yards and 3 TDs in a 40-7 Bolts win during the 2023 season.
