Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars Odds & Picks

After two straight wins all the chatter of the Kansas City Chiefs being done has subsided. The Chiefs go for their third in a row overall and ninth straight against the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars in the Week 5 Monday Night Football contest. The Jags are 3-1 for the first time since 2018 and lead the NFL in turnover margin. The game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville on October 6 and will air on ESPN.

Chiefs at Jaguars Preview

We had a little throwback party last week with the Chiefs putting up their highest point total in their last 42 overall games in a 37-20 win over the Ravens. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdown passes for the first time since early in the 2023 season going 25 of 37 with 270 yards. The return of Xavier Worthy from injury helped spark the offense. Worthy had five receptions for 83 yards and added 38 yards on two rush attempts.

It helped that Baltimore lost several defensive starters during the game, but for KC fans the offensive explosion was a welcome sight. While the offense is a work in progress without a running game, the defense is keeping the Chiefs afloat. The group has not allowed more than 20 points in any of its last three games and gives up an average of 19 points per game.

The last time the Chiefs scored more than 37 points was in Week 3 of the 2023 season.
The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last eight games as a road favorite of 3+ points.
Mahomes leads the team in rushing with 130 yards and has scored 2 TDs.
Kansas City has turned the ball over just once this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL.

We can call the Jaguars an early season surprise after winning three of their first four games. The last time that happened was in 2018 and Jags fans are hoping the similarities end here. Because, back then a seven-game losing streak started with a Week 5 loss to the Chiefs and the Jags finished 5-11.

The background of coach Liam Coen was expected to help the development of Trevor Lawrence and the offense. They haven’t been bad, scoring at least 26 points in three games and averaging 24.0 for the season. Lawrence has thrown for 844 yards and five TDs, but he’s been intercepted four times. Forcing turnovers is what’s helping them win games. The Jags have at least three takeaways in every game and lead the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin.

The Jags have more takeaways (13) through four games than they had all last season (9).
Jacksonville has payout wins in its last three home games.
Devin Lloyd is tied for the league lead with 3 of Jacksonville’s NFL high 9 interceptions.
The Jaguars have allowed a NFL low 3 quarterback sacks.

Chiefs at Jaguars Predictions

A game against the beat defense of the Ravens gave KC a lot of confidence. Mahomes was dealing and Worthy made an impact with the group. And it’s hard to imagine the Jags continuing to create turnovers at such a high rate. I like the Jags, but their offense, especially Lawrence, hasn’t quite caught up. Lawrence has been unable to move the ball downfield going 0 for 9 on passes over 20 yards. That adds up to a Kansas City cover on the NFL betting line.

Chiefs at Jaguars Betting Tips

Kansas City is 3.5-point favorite on the early line with a moneyline price of -191.
The Jags have won and covered in both home games this season holding each of their opponents to 10 points.
The Jags were 1-15 SU when playing as an underdog until upsetting San Francisco last week.
The total surfaced at 46.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six home games.

Chiefs at Jaguars Head to Head and Key Stats

The Chiefs have won the last eight meetings dating back to 2010 going 5-2-1 against the NFL betting odds.
KC won the most recent contest, 17-9, during the 2023 season covering the 3-point spread.
The Chiefs have payout wins in each of the last three games in Jacksonville.
The UNDER has cashed in three straight matchups and in six of the last seven.
Mahomes is 4-0 against the Jags averaging 331.8 passing yards with 9 TD throws.