A WBC super welterweight title fight headlines Prime Video pay-per-view on Saturday, March 28, 2026, as champion Sebastian Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KOs) faces former champion Keith Thurman (31-1, 23 KOs) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Scheduled for 12 rounds, the matchup pairs Fundora’s height, southpaw stance, and current championship form against Thurman’s experience, power, and long-awaited return to the division.
With Fundora listed as a -460 favorite in boxing betting odds, the market expects his size and recent activity to play a major role, but Thurman’s power and veteran pedigree make him a dangerous underdog.
Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman Fight Preview
Sebastian Fundora, age 28, enters at 23-1-1 with 15 knockouts and defends his WBC super welterweight title. Standing six feet five and one-half inches tall with a southpaw stance, the West Palm Beach native brings an unusual combination of size and offensive pressure to the division. He is 5-1 in his last six fights, including a 7th round RTD win against Tim Tszyu in July of last year.
He also owns a 4th round TKO over Chordale Booker, a split decision win against Tszyu in March of 2024, a 7th round knockout loss to Brian Mendoza, a unanimous decision over Carlos Ocampo, and a 9th round RTD against Erickson Lubin.
Fundora’s strength is his height, reach, and ability to apply pressure from a southpaw stance. His volume and willingness to engage make him difficult to handle over the course of a long fight. His challenge is dealing with Thurman’s power and experience. Against a former champion with proven knockout ability, Fundora must remain defensively responsible while continuing to press forward.
Keith Thurman, age 37, enters at 31-1 with 23 knockouts and looks to reclaim a world title. Standing five feet seven and one-half inches tall with an orthodox stance, the Clearwater native brings experience and power into the matchup. He is 5-1 in his last six fights, including a 3rd round TKO win against Brock Jarvis in March of last year, which was his first fight in more than three years.
He also has a unanimous decision over Mario Barrios, a split decision loss to Manny Pacquiao, a majority decision win over Josesito Lopez, a split decision win over Danny Garcia, and a unanimous decision over Shawn Porter.
Thurman’s strength is his power, experience, and ability to rise in big fights. His challenge is overcoming Fundora’s size and activity. After a long layoff, Thurman must deal with a much taller opponent who can apply steady pressure and extend exchanges over multiple rounds.
Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman Predictions
With Fundora listed as a -460 favorite in boxing betting odds, the market clearly favors the champion’s size, activity, and recent form. The tactical question is whether Thurman’s power and experience can offset Fundora’s height and pressure over 12 rounds.
Expect Fundora to use his reach and southpaw stance to control distance while maintaining a steady offensive output. Thurman’s best path is to land clean power shots and take advantage of openings during exchanges.
If Fundora controls the pace and keeps Thurman working at a high volume, his size and consistency give him a clear edge. If Thurman can land effectively and disrupt Fundora’s rhythm, he becomes a live underdog despite the odds.
Lean: Fundora by decision or late stoppage, with Thurman having moments but facing difficulty overcoming the size and activity difference.
Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman Betting Tips
Moneyline
• Sebastian Fundora is listed at -460, reflecting his size, activity, and current championship form.
• Keith Thurman is listed at +337, offering underdog value based on power and experience.
Method of Victory
• Fundora by decision is viable if he controls the pace and uses his size over 12 rounds.
• Fundora by KO is possible if his pressure breaks Thurman down late.
• Thurman by KO is the clearest upset path, especially if he lands clean power shots.
Props
• Over 10.5 rounds is listed at +130, reflecting the potential for the fight to extend deep into the later rounds.
• Under 10.5 rounds is listed at -160, indicating the possibility of a stoppage.
Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman Key Stats & Tale of the Tape
• Sebastian Fundora: 23-1-1 (15 KOs), age 28, height 6’5½”, southpaw. Tall pressure fighter with volume and reach.
• Keith Thurman: 31-1 (23 KOs), age 37, height 5’7½”, orthodox. Experienced power puncher with championship pedigree.
• Records & Form: Fundora 5-1 in his last six; Thurman 5-1 in his last six.
• Physical Edge: Fundora holds a significant height advantage; Thurman brings power and experience.
• Venue & Broadcast: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada — Prime Video pay-per-view.
• Belts: WBC Super Welterweight Championship.
The tale of the tape highlights a matchup between Fundora’s size, pressure, and current championship form versus Thurman’s experience, power, and proven ability at the highest level. Fundora brings physical advantages and activity, while Thurman brings veteran savvy and knockout potential. The edge leans toward Fundora’s consistency and size, but Thurman remains dangerous if he can land cleanly and disrupt the rhythm of the fight.
