Falcons vs. Packers TNF Predictions: Odds & Best Bets

The Atlanta Falcons are hopeful a change at quarterback can revive an offense that’s scored the fewest points in the NFL. The team announced Michael Penix Jr. will start when the Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers in the Week 3 NFL Thursday Night Football game. Atlanta was drubbed 34-3 by Carolina last week with Cooper Rush turning the ball over three times. The Packers avoided a 0-2 start with an overtime victory over the Jets coming back from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit for the 20-17 win. The Packers opened as a 6.5-point NFL betting line favorite.

NFL Thursday Night Football This Week

A critical NFC battle is featured on NFL Thursday Night Football this week when the winless Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers. The season hasn’t gone according to plan for Atlanta with serious injury concerns at the QB position impacting their early season results. The club acquired Tua Tagovailoa in the offseason to cover as Michael Penix Jr. recovered from off-season surgery. Tua got hurt before the opener and the club managed just 8.0 points and 262 yards with Cooper Rush behind center. There is hope, though, with Penix Jr. getting the nod this week.

Thursday Night NFL Football Game Preview

• NFL Thursday Night Football this week features a NFC matchup between the South Division’s Falcons and the North Division’s Packers on September 24, 2026.
• Kickoff is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET with the game broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
• The teams will play each other at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI for the first time since the 2020 season. The Pack has won the last four home games in the series.

Key Storylines for This Week’s Matchup

• A key storyline for the Falcons is Michael Penix Jr. making his season debut on NFL Thursday Night football this week. How he responds after missing 10 months recovering from a knee injury is key to Atlanta’s success. Penix started nine games last season before getting hurt throwing for nearly 2,000 yards with nine TDs and three interceptions. 
• Green Bay’s offensive line has struggled in pass protection forcing Jordan Love to operate under intense pressure. The group needs to stabilize to keep Love upright, especially since the Packers remain without top running back Josh Jacobs.
• The Packers have a big homefield advantage playing at Lambeau Field and enter as a heavy 6.5-point favorite. Green Bay has an impressive 9-3 record against the NFL betting line in their last 12 home games.

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Who Plays Thursday Night Football NFL?

The Falcons joined the NFL in 1966 as an expansion team and had the misfortune of playing the Packers, the best team in the league under Vince Lombardi at the time, in each of their first five seasons. Not surprisingly Atlanta lost all five games before posting their first win in the series in 1971. The Thursday night NFL football game between the clubs will be the 37th all-time meeting with Green Bay leading 19-17. The home team has dominated recently winning the last eight matchups.

Team Matchup

• The Falcons will have their starting QB back in the lineup for this week’s NFL Thursday Night Football game, however getting the running game going is key to their success in order to take some pressure off Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta has run the ball effectively behind Bijan Robinson, who ranks 7th in the NFL with 155 rushing yards.
• Green Bay is facing a crisis on the offensive line following a slew of injuries last week. Three starters exited the Jets game leaving the Packers with only five linemen to finish the game. Working with several new linemen could create communication and schematic difficulties and potentially leave Jordan Love on an island.
• The Falcons have dropped their first two games making their quest to end an 8-year playoff drought more difficult. Taking care of the football would be a start to getting their first win. The Falcons have turned the ball over seven times with five interceptions and have a NFL worst minus-6 turnover ratio.

Current Records and Recent Form

• Atlanta is 0-2 after losing 34-3 last week to division rival Carolina. The Falcons had five giveaways, did not run a play in the red zone and totaled just 286 yards. They are the lowest scoring team in the league averaging just 8.0 points.
• A fourth-quarter comeback helped Green Bay get its first win of the season, 20-17 over the Jets in overtime, ending a 6-game overall skid. The Pack scored 10 points in the final 8 minutes of regulation then got a game-winning field goal from Trey Smack.

Where Can I Watch Thursday Night NFL Football?

The Week 3 NFL Thursday Night Football game between the Falcons and Packers will air exclusively on Amazon Prime Video as part of the streaming platforms contract with the NFL. Amazon Prime will broadcast every game that falls under the NFL Thursday Night Football umbrella.

TV and Streaming Information

• The Thursday night NFL football game will stream exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.
• If your local market team is playing on NFL Thursday Night Football the game will be broadcast on a local over-the-air television station in that team’s market.
• Starting in Week 2 every game under the Thursday Night Football umbrella will be broadcast directly through the Prime Video app.

Thursday Night Football Start Time

• Every game during the regular season under the NFL Thursday Night Football umbrella will have a start time of 5:15 p.m. PT / 8:15 p.m. ET.

NFL Thursday Night Football Odds and Best Bets

The good thing about playing on a short week for the Falcons is that they don’t have the additional time to stew in their embarrassing 34-3 loss on Sunday. They will also have their QB behind center with the return of Michal Penix Jr. Still, early NFL betting action on the opening Thursday Night Football betting lines favor the Packers by nearly a touchdown.

Moneyline Odds

• Atlanta Falcons +238
• Green Bay Packers -279

Point Spread

• Atlanta Falcons +6.5 (-113)
• Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-103)

Game Total

• Over 44.5 (-104)
• Under 44.5 (-112)

NFL Thursday Night Football Predictions

There hasn’t been much flow on the offensive side for either team early in the season. The Packers are dealing with numerous injuries on their offensive line while the Falcons are hoping Michael Penix Jr. can ignite the lowest scoring team. The Falcons should be better with Penix, but he’s still a wildcard since he hasn’t played since the middle of last season. The NFL Thursday Night Football odds and best bets are backing the UNDER of 44.5 points.

Matchup Prediction

• Atlanta has had a rough start to the season evidenced by last week’s 34-3 blowout loss to Carolina. The team’s fortunes now hinge heavily on the health and performance of Michael Penix Jr., who is ready to assume the starting role for this week’s NFL Thursday Night Football game.
• This is a stressful week for the Packers, who must patch together an offensive line after three starters exited the Jets game. The Pack was able to emerge with a victory and head back to Lambeau Field for their home opener. They will have the homefield advantage on the short turnaround but little time to put an offensive line together.

Score Prediction

• Despite injuries on the O line most analysts view the Packers as a stronger team with stability at the most important position. Atlanta’s secondary struggled against Bryce Young and Jordan Love is projected to put up similar numbers in their NFL Thursday Night Football predictions. 
• Questions remain about both offenses allowing the UNDER to cash in Green Bay’s 27-17 victory.

Betting Prediction

• There are several areas on the Falcons that need to improve and the offense should take a step forward with the return of Michael Penix Jr.
• Both offenses have struggled for different reasons. The Packers have a banged up line and the Falcons have gotten tragic quarterback play. I don’t see those being fixed enough on a short week to warrant a lot of points which is why targeting the UNDER on NFL Thursday Night Football predictions is a smart play.
• The Falcons have playmakers and with a competent QB getting them the ball they should score at least two touchdowns.

NFL Thursday Night Football Bets to Consider

The top NFL Thursday Night Football bets to consider for the Week 3 contest between Atlanta and Green Bay focus on offensive struggles for both sides and the Packers homefield advantage at Lambeau Field. The NFL betting lines for this matchup have stabilized with the Packers laying 6.5 points with the total at 44.5.

Best Spread Bet

• Over their last 12 games at Lambeau Field the Packers earned payouts in 75 percent of them giving them a boost in their home opener. 

Best Total Bet

• Injuries and personnel issues have hindered both teams offensively and getting those repaired on a short week is a tough ask. And with Michael Penix Jr. making his season debut on the road in a hostile environment is a difficult assignment.

Best Moneyline Bet

• According to analysts the best NFL Thursday Night Football bet on the moneyline is backing the Packers.
• At their price the Packers won’t yield a major payout, but they are the safest straight up winner to consider. Green Bay can be better used in a multi-wager parlay.
• Advanced analytics give the Packers a better than 74 percent win probability, making them a foundational safe pick.

NFL Thursday Night Football Player Props

With major storylines surrounding the quarterback situation for both teams, early NFL Thursday Night Football player prop bet values and wagers are shaping up. The big news is from Atlanta with the return of Michael Penix Jr. following his recovery from knee surgery. To take pressure off Penix, expect the Falcons to heavily utilize Bijan Robinson.

Quarterback Props

• A 10-month rehabilitation process and a conservative game plan will limit the passing yards of Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. 
• Facing a questionable Falcons secondary look for Jordan Love to distribute passes to a deep receiving corps while targeting the OVER on his 21.5 completions.

Running Back Props

• Bijan Robinson will get a lot of use in Atlanta’s offense as the leading rusher and a security blanket for Penix Jr., making his rushing + receiving yardage OVER lines a popular target.
• With Josh Jacobs suspended the Packers have used a committee at running back with no one standing out. It’s probably best to avoid any significant investment in this market.

Receiver Props

• Atlanta’s offense should see a boost in efficiency with Penix Jr. behind center giving plenty of value to the receiving yards and receptions totals for Drake London going OVER the projected line.
• With Jayden Reed questionable and Christian Watson ailing from last week’s game, we could see tight end Tucker Craft be a top target in the passing game giving value to the OVER on his total number of receptions.

Key Factors for Thursday Night NFL Football Game Predictions

An influx of new personnel on both the Falcons and Packers is viewed as a key factor for NFL Thursday Night Football predictions in their Week 3 encounter. The biggest lineup change comes with the Falcons turning to Michael Penix Jr. to take control of a struggling offense. Poor quarterback play was the biggest issue in Atlanta’s 0-2 start while Green Bay will have several new offensive linemen.

Short Week Rest and Injuries

• NFL Thursday Night Football games inherently limit preparation time and make it more difficult for the road team due to travel constraints.
• Three offensive linemen, including starters Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks, left last week’s game against the Jets with injuries and all are questionable to play. WR Jayden Reed was also stretchered off the field with a back injury.
• Atlanta’s defense was impacted by injuries to A.J. Terrell and Samson Ebukam in last week’s loss. Both players are questionable to play on Thursday.

Home-Field Advantage

• Playing at home on NFL Thursday Night Football is an advantage in itself, but being one of the best home teams in the league makes it even more valuable.
• Under coach Matt LaFleur the Packers boast a 38-12 record at Lambeau Field, the second best mark in the NFL over that span.
• History favors the Packers on their own turf over the Falcons. Green Bay is 12-4 all-time at home against Atlanta, including wins in each of the last four meetings.

Matchup Trends

• Both teams enter this game searching for their first payout of the season. The Packers failed to cover last week as a 3.5-point favorite opting to kick a field goal in overtime rather than go for a touchdown. 
• Both teams have excelled in short weeks with Atlanta going 9-4 in its last 13 NFL Thursday Night Football games while the Packers are 9-6 in their last 15 TNF games.

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

NFL Thursday Night Football betting trends offer distinct historical patterns due to the game’s unique short-week setup that leaves teams less time to prepare. Understanding these trends and identifying specific team trends for the showdown between the Falcons and Packers can help bettors spot value in certain betting lines.

Against the Spread Trends

• NFL betting line favorites historically win and cover the spread more frequently on Thursday’s compared to standard Sunday results.
• The compressed schedule makes it more difficult for underdog coaching staffs to implement a complex game plan needed for an upset.
• Cover rates often improve later in the season as teams start to forge an identity.

Over/Under Trends

• Games on short rest feature higher scoring volatility and totals tend to trend toward the UNDER as the season progresses.
• Oddsmakers adapt to the short week under factor which creates high-variance lines early in the season.

Head-to-Head Trends

• While the overall series is close, the Packers have been dominant at home winning 12 of 16 games played at Lambeau Field, including the last four with payouts in the last two.
• The teams have cashed the OVER on the NFL betting line total in six of the last seven meetings. 
• Three of the last eight matchups between the teams were decided by exactly one point, including the most recent game in 2023, a 25-24 Falcons home win.