College Football Odds – Auburn Tigers vs Baylor Bears

NCAAF

Head coach Hugh Freeze is entering his third season with the Auburn Tigers after two underwhelming campaigns. Freeze arrived from Liberty where he elevated the Flames to a level where they were able to make a New Year’s Six bowl game the year after he departed.

But Freeze is best known for his time as head coach of the Ole Miss Rebels. At Ole Miss, Freeze built a winning SEC program that was good enough to beat Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty. But in his second tour of duty in the SEC, Freeze has yet to ignite War Eagle after being proclaimed the savior of the program. On Friday night, Freeze and his Tigers hit the road to face the Baylor Bears.

Auburn vs. Baylor Preview

On Friday, August 29, 2025, the Baylor Bears host the Auburn Tigers at McLane Stadium in Waco, TX. Kickoff time is at 8 p.m. ET with television coverage on FOX.

If TCU wasn't the most overlooked success story of 2024, Baylor was. After winning the Big 12 in 2021, Dave Aranda's Bears went just 9-16 over the next two seasons and began 2024 just 2-4. But like the rival Horned Frogs, Baylor surged from there, winning six in a row.

Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. There's no reason to think the offense will regress. Even with Leavitt's late-2024 charge, Sawyer Robertson was the best quarterback in the conference per Total QBR.

Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense. Baylor rebounded to 63rd last year, with a genuinely solid run defense; the pass defense was terrible, and they lost three games while scoring 28 or more points. Aranda kept third-year coordinator Matt Powledge but loaded up on transfers.

On paper, Hugh Freeze's 2024 Auburn Tigers were just about the least fortunate team you'll ever see. They were 125th in turnovers luck, and they managed to lose games with postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76% and 61%. SP+ saw an 8-4 team that accidentally went 5-7, and that tends almost to guarantee improvement the next season.

But if you actually watched Auburn, the breakdowns were so reliable that it was

difficult to see the losses as mere poor fortune. Maybe no team in the country, therefore, combines raw upside with the extreme burden of proof like Auburn.

Auburn vs. Baylor Predictions

On this occasion, Auburn has not yet earned the trust of gamblers to deliver as a road favorite. Baylor’s improvement in 2024 brings momentum and confidence into the 2025 campaign.

Baylor has been a good betting value as a home dog and should be a live pup in this game against an Auburn team that is a name brand that consistently fails to deliver the goods.

Auburn Tigers at Baylor Bears Prime Best Bet: Baylor Bears

Auburn vs. Baylor Betting Tips

The Auburn Tigers opened as a -2.5-point favorite and are -135 on the moneyline. The Baylor Bears are +2.5-point home dogs with a moneyline price of +114. The Bears and Tigers opened with a total of 57.5.

The Auburn Tigers will generate the vast majority of betting action in this matchup. In comparison to Baylor, Auburn is a bigger public brand based on its history and SEC pedigree.

In recent years, Baylor’s past performance has been too inconsistent and lacks the historic brand context of Auburn. Thus, Baylor may offer more value as a contrarian, public fade opportunity.

Auburn vs. Baylor Head-to-Head and Key Stats

The Auburn Tigers have covered the spread in four of their most recent seven games as a road favorite. Auburn went under the total in nine of its last ten games, laying points on the road.

The Baylor Bears have lost only three of their most recent nine games against the spread as home dogs—only two of Baylor’s last eight games as home dogs went over the total.