This season ending AFC West matchup would’ve been a heck of a lot more interesting had the Los Angeles Chargers won last week. They didn't, thus they won’t win the division. It still means plenty to the Denver Broncos, who can secure the No. 1 seed with a victory.
The game kicks at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 4 from Empower Field in Denver and will air on CBS.
Chargers at Broncos Preview
With their shot at winning the AFC West blown up by the relentless defense of the Houston Texans, the Bolts made the smart decision to sit Justin Herbert for the finale. Herbert has dealt with an assortment of injuries even playing with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand.
An offense line patched together after injuries to starters Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt has struggled.
Another reason why Herbert is shelved for the finale is that he’s been sacked 54 times, one fewer than the most sacked QBs in the league. Herbert’s backup all season Trey Lance will make his 6th career start.
The No. 3 overall pick in 2021 has thrown for 1,153 in 156 career attempts with 5 TDs and 4 INTs.
- With Herbert and other regulars inactive there was movement on the NFL spread with the Chargers as a 13-point dog.
- The offense will likely struggle but LA’s defense can make things interesting. The Bolts are 4th in yards allowed, surrender 183.4 passing yards a game and they’re 3rd with 19 interceptions.
- The run game was a factor in LA’s recent 4-game winning streak averaging more than 151 yards. That level of production will be hard to come by against the No. 2 run defense.
- Tony Jefferson and Donte Jackson are each tied for 7th in the NFL with four picks leading a defense that has 19 INTs and 23 takeaways.
It would be unwise for the Broncos to take this game lightly despite what the Bolts are throwing at them. The outlook is simple: win and you’re in as the No. 1 seed with home field advantage.
Denver was in a similar position last year when the Chiefs came to town with the top seed clinched and starters on the bench. The Broncos took care of business with a 38-0 victory.
There was some concern about the defense after giving up 60 points in games against Green Bay and Jacksonville. The group snapped back last week against a depleted Kansas City unit allowing 139 total yards and 3.3 yards per play.
Not a good measuring stick, but the unit has been among the best all season in yards and points allowed, and is the best with 64 sacks.
- A win for the No. 1 seed in the AFC is all the motivation the Broncos need.
- Getting more from Bo Nix would go a long way toward making the Broncos a serious threat. He’s completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes in 4 of the last 10 games with 7 interceptions in that span. His 11 INTs tie him for 6th in the NFL.
- At 7-1 the Broncos have the best home record in the NFL but they are just 4-4 ATS.
Chargers at Broncos Predictions
When a total sinks as low as it has for this game it’s begging you to back the OVER. Still, with two fierce stop groups and offenses that have been erratic, going UNDER the 37.5 point total is probably the best bet.
The teams scored 43 points with healthy rosters in Week 3 giving the wager a bolt of confidence.
Chargers at Broncos Betting Tips
- With LA sitting Herbert and possibly other starters the line spiked to Denver -13.
- It’s the first time LA’s been that big of an underdog since the 2000 season.
- The Bolts are 4-0 SU and ATS this when catching points with the largest spread 6 points.
- The NFL moneylines have Denver listed at -768 and LA at +579.
- The Broncos closed as a 13.5-point favorite last week but failed to cover the NFL spread in their 20-13 win at Kansas City.
- The total also dropped slightly to 37.5, the lowest in any game for either team.
- Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Chargers at Broncos Head to Head and Key Stats
- Herbert threw for 300 yards and a TD and the Bolts extended their winning streak in the series to three with a 23-20 victory in Week 3.
- The Broncos are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last 4 games in Denver.
- 6 of the last 10 matchups have gone UNDER the total.
