CFP Semifinal Fiesta Bowl Odds, Picks & Analysis

Thanks to the Miami Hurricanes, college football will crown a new national champion. The Canes knocked off heavily favored Ohio State to earn a CFP semifinal matchup with the Mississippi Rebels in the Fiesta Bowl. The game will air on ESPN on Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Preview

Anybody who doubted Miami’s inclusion in the college football playoff can be quiet now. The Canes upset Texas A&M in the first round and dominated the trenches in a 24-14 win over Ohio State in the quarterfinal round. If you hadn’t noticed they’ve been really good on defense holding each of their last 6 opponents to less than 17 points while cashing the UNDER in 3 straight.

They haven’t been explosive on offense, but the Canes have been efficient doing just enough to win a pair of games. After rushing for 172 yards against the Aggies, Mark Fletcher helped Miami control the clock with 90 yards on 19 rush attempts against OSU. He also had a TD catch and the Canes possessed the ball for more than 33 minutes.

Miami is currently 4th in the country in scoring defense allowing an average of 13.1 points. With 12 sacks in 2 playoff games they also lead the FBS in that category with 46.
Since losing to SMU in Week 10 the Canes are 6-0 outscoring opponents 185-58 while going 4-2 against the college football spread.
Carson Beck has completed nearly 72 percent of his passes in 2 playoff games with 2 TDs and no interceptions. He has at least 1 TD pass in 8 straight games.
Miami is 8th nationally with a plus-12 turnover margin and has forced 5 turnovers in the playoffs.

Even with Lane Kiffin opting out of the playoffs to take another gig, the Ole Miss Rebels continue to roll. They avenged their only setback of the season beating SEC counterpart Georgia, 39-34, in the Sugar Bowl. When the teams met in Athens in Week 8 the Rebels took a 9-point lead into the fourth quarter only to give up 17 points and lose 43-35.

Including that game the Rebels have been a machine on offense scoring at least 30 points in 8 consecutive outings. They put up 2 of the 3 highest point totals allowed by UGA this season with the help of QB Trinidad Chambliss, who wasn’t even the team’s starter at the beginning of the season. Chambliss has championship experience leading Ferris State to DII last season.

Chambliss is having a magical season after taking over in Week 3 throwing for 3,660 yards and 21 TDs with only 3 interceptions in 408 pass attempts.
The Rebels’ second leading rusher with 520 yards, Chambliss also has 8 TDs on the ground.
Ole Miss has been a strong play against the college football point spread with 3 straight payouts and an overall record of 9-5 ATS.
The Rebels had allowed an average of only 13.4 points in 5 games prior to the Georgia contest. They rank 29th nationally in all games giving up 20.4 points per game.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Predictions

Chambliss and the Rebels blasted some good defensive teams over the course of the season. They totaled 824 yards and 74 points in 2 games against Georgia and tallied the highest point total Oklahoma allowed in a 34-26 win over the Sooners. They’ve totaled more than 415 yards in all but one game and 5 times they produced more than 500 yards. Back the Rebels and the points in this one.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Betting Tips

Miami is listed as a 3.5-point favorite on the college football betting line.
The Canes have payouts in 3 consecutive games and in 4 of 5. Overall they are 9-5 ATS.
Ole Miss also has 3 consecutive payouts and 5 in the last 7 games.
The total surfaced at 52.5.
Every Ole Miss game had a total above 50 and the Rebels are 7-7 against the total.
Miami cashed the UNDER 9 times in 14 games.
Miami is -180 and Ole Miss +150 on the college football moneylines.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Head to Head and Key Stats

Not many people are still around from the last time these programs played. The last of 3 encounters took place in 1951, some 75 years ago.
One good thing about conference realignment and the CFP is that rarely played matchups take the stage.
This game will be about the Rebels offense and Miami’s defense. Ole Miss is averaging 40 points and 485 yards in the playoff while Miami has held its opponents to 17 total points and 658 yards.