Snapping back from an opening week loss, the Alabama Crimson Tide has won five in a row to reach No. 6 in the national rankings. More importantly they are one of three unbeaten teams in SEC play. The Tide puts its streak on the line against the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday, October 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Bryan-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL with television coverage on ABC
Tennessee at Alabama Preview
The Vols are often overlooked in the hierarchy of the SEC. They can make a huge statement with a road win on Saturday. And things haven’t been as bad as most predicted following the departure of Nico Iamaleava. Joey Aguilar stepped in and has thrown 14 TD passes for the nation’s highest scoring team. The Vols are 5-1 and put up 41 points against Georgia’s stout defense in their only loss.
The offense has to operate at a high level since the defense gives up nearly 30 points a game. The Vols have allowed more than 30 points in their three conference games and rank 108th nationally in points per game allowed. That combo has led to a 5-1 record against the OVER on the college football odds.
- The Vols have failed to cover the spread in their last three games.
- Aguilar is completing nearly 69 percent of his passes for 1,680 yards and 14 TDs.
- It’s a small sample size, but the Vols are the only SEC team to convert every fourth-down play going 3 for 3.
- DeSean Bishop has rushed for 481 yards and 5 TDs and leads the SEC averaging 7.6 yards per carry.
Most people have forgotten about Alabama’s Week 1 embarrassment when they lost to Florida State as a 13.5-point college football betting line favorite. Winning five games in a row can do that. The lack of a ground game has made the team reliant on Ty Simpson, and he’s delivered. Simpson has completed 71 percent of his passes and leads the SEC with 16 TD strikes.
A more balanced attack will help, but that might have to wait with leading rusher Jam Miller likely out due to a concussion sustained last week. Miller had 85 yards rushing against Mizzou before exiting and the team managed less than 3 yards per carry. They are 102nd nationally running the ball averaging 3.7 yards a carry.
- During their 5-game winning streak Bama is allowing an average of just 14.6 points.
- The Tide has the third-best pass defense in the country allowing 135.7 yards a game through the air.
- Alabama has turned the ball over just once and is tied for 2nd nationally with a +9 turnover margin.
- The Tide have scored on 27 of 28 red zone trips with 20 TDs.
Tennessee at Alabama Predictions
There are a few factors that lead me to backing the UNDER on Ty Simpson’s passing yards total of 290.5. He’s thrown for more than that number twice in six games and Bama will try to establish a run game. Why? Because Tennessee gets after opposing QB’s better than any team. The Vols average a FBS best 4.33 sacks per game and have at least 3 sacks in every game.
Tennessee at Alabama Betting Tips
- Alabama opened as an 8-point favorite with a moneyline price of -301.
- Under coach Kalen DeBoer the Tide is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in home games.
- The Vols are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four when catching at least 7-points, three of those setbacks were to Georgia.
- Tennessee is +256 on the moneyline.
- The total hit the board at 58.5. The Vols are 3-1 against the OVER with a total at least that high.
Tennessee at Alabama Head to Head and Key Stats
- Tennessee won last year’s meeting 24-17 as a 3-point dog and has won two of the last three encounters.
- The Tide has won the last 10 meetings in Alabama going 3-6-1 ATS.
- The teams have played OVER the total in three of the last four games at Alabama.
- Alabama has won the last four home games against Tennessee by an average score of 41.5-12-8
