The Texas Longhorns entered the 2025 season with a lot of hype and the No. 1 ranking in the national polls. Entering their Week 7 Red River Rivalry showdown with the Oklahoma Sooners, the Horns aren’t even among the top 25. The Sooners look to keep their undefeated season going and avenge a humbling 34-3 loss to Texas a season ago when the clubs meet on Saturday, October 11 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Preview
Things haven’t gone according to plan for the Horns this season. They lost both games against Power 4 teams Ohio State and Florida and struggled at home against G5 programs San Jose State and UTEP, failing to cover the spread in college football odds in both games. Texas has just one payout in five games, beating winless Sam Houston State 55-0 in Week 4.
The numbers put up by Arch Manning aren’t bad, but they aren’t in line with the amount of buildup he’s had. Manning has completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,151 yards and 11 TDs. But he’s been intercepted five times and had difficulties against the Buckeyes and Gators. He completed just 56 percent of his passes in those games with three TDs and three picks.
- Texas ranks 5th nationally in scoring defense allowing 12.0 points per game.
- The Horns allowed season-highs in points (29) and yards (457) in last week’s loss to Florida.
- Texas is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games when playing as a favorite of 3 points or less.
- In their last three games against a Power opponent the Horns are 0-3 SU and ATS.
It’s hard to tell if Oklahoma is serious or just posturing with the announcement that QB1 John Mateer is pushing to play in this game. Mateer broke a bone in his throwing hand in the first quarter against Auburn in Week 4. He finished that game with 271 passing yards and a TD with another rushing TD. It’s possible he could return less than three weeks after surgery.
Michael Hawkins Jr. got the start against Kent State in Week 5 going 14 of 24 for 162 yards and three TDs. The defense was a huge part of that win and all five victories this season. The Sooners allowed just 135 total yards and recorded five sacks. They also forced two turnovers, their first takeaways of the season.
- The Sooners have played UNDER the total in all five games.
- OU has the nation’s No. 1 total defense allowing less than 200 yards per game and they’re second nationally allowing an average of 7.2 points.
- 12 players have at least one sack and the Sooners are second nationally with 21 sacks.
- Oklahoma is 4-1 SU in its last five games following a bye.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Predictions
I didn’t buy into the Manning hype before the season and he hasn’t helped his cause with poor outings against P4 opponents. OU’s defense is fast and big like Ohio State’s and Manning had a difficult time against the Buckeyes. The Sooners have played stronger competition beating Michigan and Auburn and they’re ready to avenge last year’s butt-whoopin. The line could change depending on the status of Mateer, but either way backing OU is the right play.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Tips
- Texas is a -1 favorite on the early line with a moneyline price of -109.
- If the college football odds hold, the Sooners will play as an underdog for the first time this season. They are 2-2-1 ATS.
- OU has a moneyline price of -107.
- The total is at 43.5, which would be the lowest in a game between these teams this century.
- The Sooners have cashed the UNDER in six straight games dating back to last season’s bowl game.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Head to Head and Key Stats
- The Horns won last year’s meeting 34-3 for their second win in three games. They outscored OU 83-3 in their victories.
- Prior to that, the Sooners had won four straight and six of seven.
- The winning team has scored at least 34 points in each of the last eight meetings.
- Manning has not beaten a P4 program going 0-2 as a starter.
